With the usual caveats, I’m happy to say that the 2023 Texas hurricane season is over

This has been an unprecedented year, heat-wise, so it’s difficult to rely too much on past climate and weather norms. However, we have reached the point of the year after which it is extremely unlikely for a hurricane to strike the state of Texas. The historical odds of doing so after the date of September 24 are approximately 1-in-50.

Despite the fact that the Gulf of Mexico remains toasty warm, if there ever were a year to call the season in late September for Texas, this is the season. Wind shear has been exceptionally high over the last few weeks, and it is showing no signs of abating in the near future. And the overall pattern does not appear to support the movement of tropical systems into the Western Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. The bottom line is that history says we’re done, and the current setup says we’re done. Never say never, but we’re probably done.

Even as far as October 8, the European ensemble model is forecast wind shear conditions very hostile to tropical systems over the northern and Western Gulf of Mexico. (Weather Bell)

That is not to say that we still cannot see a tropical storm or a disturbance that brings us rain. That can happen in October, and has in the past. But these are mostly moisture events rather than serious wind or surge events. This also says nothing about the hurricane odds for Louisiana and points east. It remains an active Atlantic season, which we’re tracking for you on The Eyewall. So my advice is this: Although the Atlantic hurricane season will continue for another couple of months, you can breathe a little easier this morning if you live in Texas.


Houston saw some solid, widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. If you got the rain you needed, that’s great. If you didn’t, well, that’s probably the end of the widespread showers for awhile. We’ll still have some spotty rain chances going forward, but nothing like Monday. For areas south of Interstate 10, chances today are probably about 30 percent, and for areas north they’re much closer to zero percent as the weak front that drove Monday’s storms has moved offshore.

Skies today will be mostly sunny, with a light northeast wind, and highs of around 90 degrees or slightly above. Our air is slightly drier, and this should help low temperatures drop into the low 70s for much of the city, with upper 60s possible for far inland areas.


Another day a lot like Tuesday, with coastal areas seeing a chance of rain, and highs generally in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

The overall pattern more or less continues, with highs in the low 90s and sunny skies. Nights, generally, will drop into the mid-70s. Rain chances will continue to hover in the 10 to 20 percent range, so unlikely for most.

By Sunday morning, some inland areas should start to see low temperatures in the upper 60s. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

The upper atmosphere will support the flow of some modestly drier air starting this weekend, so that will allow daytime temperatures to rise a bit. But this will also support more rapid cooling in the evenings, and somewhat lower humidity. Look for highs in the low- to mid-90s this weekend, with sunny skies, and lows in the low 70s except near the coast.

Next week

The overall flow of somewhat drier air should continue next week, with highs generally in the low 90s, and nighttime temperatures in the more seasonable low 70s. It won’t be fall, but it’s something a bit nicer than summer. Truth be told, after the summer we experienced, it should feel pretty good outside. There are some hints of fall’s first real front about 10 days from now, but they’re not strong enough for me to have any confidence. We’ll see.

27 thoughts on “With the usual caveats, I’m happy to say that the 2023 Texas hurricane season is over”

  1. Did last night’s rain drop a lot of sand with it? And if yes, why? There was a lot of new sand in my yard and in the street.

  2. This is the post I anticipate each year. I can handle continued 90s (thank you, AC, ceiling fans, and cold-brew coffee) if I know the odds of a hurricane are plummeting. Thank you, Matt and Eric, for your thorough weather coverage!

    • Berger isn’t saying it, but I will. I’ve lived here since ’77 and summer always lasts until Halloween.

      • Agree. In the spirit of the season, Halloween can either be hot as the devil or colder than a witch’s elbow. I prefer the latter. Trick or treating in a sweaty mask while Reese’s are melting in your plastic pumpkin is no fun.

  3. Yes. Three more weeks of blue cloudless skies and sunny hot. Maybe one or two “sea breeze” showers if you live near the Gulf. The ridge is gaining strength. Maddening.

  4. A line of strong storms moved through my area after 7pm last night with strong gusty winds, which resulted in power outages in Sweeny and West Columbia. My power was out for 2 hours. Unfortunately the storms moved really fast and I only picked up 0.6 inches of rain. That is better than nothing of course but we need alot more.

  5. Glad to see many of us get a good soaking yesterday. And, glad to see the odds are significantly dropping for any hurricane. Thanks to the SCW team for keeping us updated through this very long, very hot summer.

  6. Saw the headline and thought, “You arrogant bastard, you’ve doomed us all!”
    Then read the first paragraph and thought, “Never tell me the odds, kid.”

  7. Dare I ask, now that you’ve “made the call” that we won’t have storms to turn over the Gulf surface water, what these anomalously warm SSTs might mean for the coming winter?

  8. I would not call yesterday’s rain event “solid, widespread.” Looking at the rainfall totals at the Harris County Flood Warning System website, most places received between 0 and 1/2 inch of rain–like my home which received 0.17″ of rain. These amounts are cruel. So many times during this drought we have dark clouds and roaring thunder but there is very little accompanying rain.

    • You are so right tanstaafl. Yesterday the only rain we got here in Santa Fe was 0.12’’. What a joke!

  9. So what is the current record for the latest date a “real” cold front reached Houston, where real is defined as the low hitting 65 degrees or lower? I saw on your blog in 2018 it was October 13th, but I was wondering if that has since been broken.

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: