Yes, there’s a tropical system entering the Gulf—no, it’s not coming to Texas

Good morning. We are interrupting what is going to be a gorgeous Saturday in Houston with a brief tropical update due to popular demand. Several of you—dozens, even—have written to ask about the low pressure system expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm, so we’re probably looking at Tropical Storm Zeta within a day or two.

Five-day tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center.

This system, dubbed Invest 95L for now, is likely to meander around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for a day or two before moving west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. By early next week the system is going to be moving almost directly toward Texas, which may seem fairly ominous.

Forecast position, per European model ensemble, for Invest 95L next Wednesday. (Weathernerds.org)

However, after this time a couple of things are expected to happen. One, a cold front is going to be moving down across Texas, and this stronger push should reach the Upper Texas coast by around late Wednesday or early Thursday. This will ultimately steer the storm north, and then northeast. Additionally, wind shear is forecast to increase over the northern Gulf of Mexico next week, which should weaken whatever develops.

In any case, it seems possible that a tropical storm could come ashore along the central or southeastern Louisiana coast, or further east, sometime next Wednesday or Thursday. It’s difficult to say too much more, too precisely, given that 95L remains fairly broad in appearance and lacks a distinct center. However, we can be confident this is not something Texas should lose much sleep over.

9 thoughts on “Yes, there’s a tropical system entering the Gulf—no, it’s not coming to Texas

  1. cyncol

    Here’s hoping wind shear tears the storm up. Louisiana does not need any more this hurricane season. They have more than paid their dues.

    Thank you so much for your dedication and your weather approach! Couldn’t imagine my world without Eric and Matt guiding my weather decisions!

    Happy Birthverisary!!

  2. CJ

    Noticed that Weather.com’s app has a nice iOS notice about this front and center this morning. Clicking on the notice sent me to a very scary looking and ominous article about it. Also noticed they had put the murder hornets as a link back on the front page too. It’s almost as if they are desperate to say “pay attention to me!!”

    Thank you to Space City Weather for your approach. The stark contrast In approaches is extremely clear.

  3. Stella Elaine Wikstrom

    You’ve clearly got a nervous clientele out there, including me. We’re all blob-phobic after this year, especially in the Golden Triangle and over in SW Louisiana. God help those folks in Lake Charles!

  4. Frances Franco

    Eric, love the positive manner this report was written – gives hope. Prayers that no storm will come near Any part of Louisiana. The storm will fall apart in water and will not strike land at all. In Yeshua Mighty Name We Pray!!!!

    Prayer is changing the course of events throughout the Land!!!!!

  5. Janet Taylor-Perry

    No, not Texas. Maybe Louisiana AGAIN. Or the LAND MASS whose name people conveniently forget.

  6. Suzanne West

    May this storm spare ALL our neighbors to the east. Southeast Texas and La. have had far more than their fair share this year. Lots of prayers going up for them.
    Even knows this hurricane season needs to end sooner than later.
    Thanks for the good info Matt and Eric.

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