Zeta bound for Louisiana, Houston to see its first sustained stretch of fall

Good morning. There’s a lot to discuss this morning, including some uncertainty in the near-term forecast, a bonafide fall-like weekend ahead, and a strengthening Tropical Storm Zeta. So let’s jump right in.

Monday

Skies are generally partly cloudy across the region and will likely remain so during the daytime. High temperatures for most areas should reach around 80 degrees. The big question remains the timing and impact of a front moving in from the northwest. It should reach areas west and north of Houston by roughly around sunset, plus or minus an hour or two. Some scattered showers and gusty winds are possible, but we’re not anticipating any strong storms with this front. The front should keep on moving, but it’s difficult to say how far it will get—the Interstate 69 corridor? All the way to the coast? The bottom line is that if you live in the western half of Houston, you’re waking up to cooler, drier air on Tuesday morning. If you’re southeast of I-69? We’re making no promises.

HRRR model forecast for front’s position (by wind direction) at 10pm CT Monday. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

High temperatures on Tuesday will likely fall somewhere in the 70s for most people, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Dewpoints will depend on how far east the front makes it. This frontal boundary should linger nearby, so we may see some additional, mostly light rain.

Wednesday

Conditions may be a bit warmer and muggier on Wednesday morning, but during the afternoon and evening hours we expect a stronger front to push through. Unlike several recent cool fronts, we expect this one will have sticking power, bringing cooler weather and lower dewpoints into the region through much of the weekend. I have some hope that most areas will also see some precipitation with this front, and as a guess I’ll go with 0.25 to 1.0 inch of rain through Wednesday night. The front should drop Wednesday night’s temperatures into the 50s.

Thursday through Sunday

We still have some questions about the strength of the front, but generally I think we’ll see highs in the low- to mid-70s through the weekend. As for low temperatures, they’re likely to vary from 40s for areas well inland (i.e. Conroe) to 50s for the city of Houston generally. This will be some of the coolest air of the season, and it will be sustained for several days. We also should see mostly sunny skies through the weekend. Cannot wait!

Forecast low temperatures for Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

A gradual warm-up should begin by Monday or so, but temperatures should remain mild.

Tropical Storm Zeta

As anticipated, Tropical Storm Zeta formed this weekend, and after meandering around the Caribbean Sea it has begun a motion to the northwest. For much of the weekend, the track models were widely divergent in terms of where Zeta will go along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. However, with better data, the models are now tightening in their solutions, showing a landfall somewhere along the central or southeastern Louisiana coast on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. The track forecast from the National Hurricane Center captures this well:

Confidence is increasing in Zeta’s track. (National Hurricane Center)

Unfortunately, Zeta has found low shear in the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the last 24 hours, and has now strengthened to near hurricane status, with 70 mph winds. Tonight the storm will make landfall—likely as a Category 1 hurricane—in almost the same location struck by Hurricane Delta only three weeks ago. Then the storm will move into the Gulf of Mexico. Zeta is likely to remain a Category 1 hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico before reaching cooler seas and increasing shear in the northern Gulf. It likely will make landfall in Louisiana as a strong tropical storm, although some uncertainty remains—more misery the state does not need.

28 thoughts on “Zeta bound for Louisiana, Houston to see its first sustained stretch of fall”

  3. Remember, guys, there are demerits involved for any fall cold front not clearing the coast, or one that comes back at us.

  4. Interesting looking radar this morning seeing snow across west Texas, while Houston remains in summer

      • Any low temperatures above 68 degrees Fahrenheit in last few days are Summer low temperatures, so Moe is partly correct

      • Eighty-eight degrees Fahrenheit is both a normal Summer and a normal Fall Houston high temperatures and 89 degrees F. is a normal Summer high temperature.

  5. Always see comments like: Cannot wait!, talking about uncomfortably cold temperatures. You folks know you can move, right?

  6. Let us hope that there is not much of a cold front. If people start moving indoors more then we are going to have a lot of corona virus spreading.

  9. I’m not sure that I believe this. Weather is never a coincidence. It is naturally unpredictable, even the best forecasters are wrong some of the time.

  11. Let’s look at this in a positive light. This site has been here for 5 years now. The comments section is overwhelmingly positive, and I don’t remember ever seeing trolls here before. So we get one now; move on.

  12. Our neighbors in La. certainly do not need another hurricane. Many prayers going up for them and yes, it is nice to see lower temperatures. Just because the weather cools, it won’t drive me inside. I can handle cold better than the heat. I can always put on heavier socks and a jacket. Lol. My bigger issue is POLLEN that comes in with some of the cold fronts. But, on the plus side, the masks kind of help with that a bit.
    We might just be getting closer to time to close the pool and break out the patio heater and firepit.
    If the temps aren’t too chilly, might just do Thanksgiving on the patio OUTSIDE.

  13. Sounds like an anti-masker, too. Where was he during the 50s when he was needed? Sen Mccarthy could have used him.

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