In brief: The next two days will feel pretty typical for Houston’s hottest and most humid month, but a front will usher in a pattern change for Labor Day Weekend. We will see higher rain chances on Saturday and Sunday, before some modestly drier air arrives. High temperatures for parts of the holiday weekend may top out in the 80s.

Thursday

After fairly widespread shower activity on Wednesday the region should only see isolated rains today, with the best chances (perhaps 30 percent) right along the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny, with sticky humidity. Winds will blow from the south at 5 to 10 mph. In terms of temperatures, generally we can expect highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is pretty standard for this time of year. Lows tonight will be sticky, dropping only into the upper 70s.

Friday

Friday should be another mostly sunny day, with high temperatures pushing into the mid-90s for the most part. So, pretty warm. However, unlike on Thursday there should be a slightly better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening hours. This is because the atmosphere should become a little more unsettled as a front slowly advances from the north, and this has the potential to impact some High School football games. There’s also a scenario in which the storms hold off until later on Friday night after the lights are turned off. We shall see.

Saturday

This is the day when a front slowly sags into the region. It will take some time for (modestly) drier air to work its way into Houston, so Saturday is still going to feel fairly warm and humid, with highs in the lower 90s. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely during the afternoon hours, with the best chances northeast of a line from Kingwood to Baytown. Rains remain likely on Saturday night and into Sunday, with lows dropping into the mid-70s.

Sunday

Skies look to remain partly to mostly cloudy, and along with ongoing rain chances (perhaps about 50 percent) for the area this should combine to limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-80s. Our air will be slightly drier, but you should not expect to walk outside and say, “oh my, it’s fall!” Lows on Sunday night could drop into the lower 70s for areas inland of Interstate 10, but I’m still not sure just how much drier and cooler air will arrive this weekend.

Labor Day

The holiday looks to be a partly sunny day. High temperatures should top out in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees, with a low-end chance of rain. Lows on Monday night should again drop into the lower 70s for areas away from the coast.

Next week

As rain chances back off, high temperatures may try to rally into the mid-90s for a couple of days with mostly sunny skies. There are some hints of another front by next weekend, but there is no real consistency in the models and I don’t want to set expectations. Pretty clearly, however, we are not headed toward a sizzling early September, like we sometimes see.

In brief: Today’s post dives a little bit deeper into expectations and uncertainties about a front that should push off the coast by Saturday evening, or so. I’m hopeful that some inland areas will see nights in the 60s. Before that we have a healthy chance of rain today, and again on Saturday.

About that front

It’s still August, so any expectations about fronts really need to be tempered around these parts. However, it now seems highly likely that a front—this is a boundary between a warmer and more humid air mass and a cooler and drier one—will push into the greater Houston area on Saturday. The real question is how much oomph it has. Since we are still a few days out, there is some built-in uncertainty. And then there is the time of year. In late August we just rarely see much cooling with any frontal passage. The bottom line: It’s just too early to have any real expectations.

And yet, this front has some potential. The most likely outcome is that the front makes it to the coast, and brings some modestly drier air into areas along and north of Interstate 10. This could bring central and northern parts of the region a few days with temperatures in the low 90s, and nights in the lower 70s. Now this is not chilly, but it will be quite nice for late August and early September. However, there is a non-zero chance of something slightly stronger that pushes nighttime lows into the upper 60s for much of the city. Anyway, it’s an interesting setup, and it certainly beats the usual alternative for this time of year—highs pushing triple digits with very muggy nights.

Wednesday

Even before sunrise this morning we are seeing some scattered showers and thunderstorms streaming in from the coast. The overall atmosphere is fairly unsettled, and with daytime heating I expect to see fairly widespread activity later today. Most locations are likely to only pick up a tenth of an inch, or two, but there could be a few bullseyes with 0.5 inch or so. Coastal areas are most likely to see the higher-end totals. These rains, and partly cloudy skies, should help to limit high temperatures to the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances slacken this evening, with nighttime temperatures expected in the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

As the atmosphere stabilizes a bit, our daily rain chances will probably drop back to about 30 percent on both of these days, with a little bit more sunshine. High temperatures both days are likely to be in the mid-90s. With luck, these may be some of the last days this year when areas of Houston see highs of 95 degrees, or higher. (No promises!)

Saturday

As noted above, we expect a front to slowly slide into Houston on Saturday. This will not be an “in your face” front, but rather one where we should see modestly drier air moving into the area for a few days as winds shift to come from the north. This front will bring a healthy chance of rain with it. I’m not anticipating anything too severe, just garden variety showers and thunderstorms that bring 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain to most locations, with higher isolated amounts possible. If you have outdoor plans you’ll want to account for the possibility of showers, including into the evening. Highs on Saturday will likely be about 90 degrees, with lows on Saturday night dropping into the mid-70s.

Sunday

By Sunday we should start to get an idea of how much cooler and drier air is going to work its way into Houston. Some lingering showers will definitely be possible, but on the whole we should see a trend toward clearing skies. Highs probably will top out in the upper 80s, or so. Lows on Sunday night could be interesting. For now I’ll hold the line at the lower 70s for most locations away from the coast, but I think upper 60s could be in play for inland areas. Fingers crossed!

Next week

I expect the (somewhat) drier air to hang around for Monday and perhaps Tuesday. This should give us a couple of days with high temperatures around 90 degrees, and nights (maybe) in the low 70s. Humidity probably won’t be low, but it should be lower than normal for this time of year. So, I’ll take it. Much of next week looks sunny before rain chances return by Thursday or Friday.

In brief: Today’s post reviews the Atlantic hurricane season to date, and sets expectations for the remainder for Texas. We also look ahead to a front that will bring slightly cooler weather and increase the likelihood of rainfall for the upcoming holiday weekend.

The Atlantic tropics

It is now late August. Regular readers of this site will know that, although the Atlantic hurricane season lasts through November 30, Texas generally has an earlier shut off date. There are no absolutes in weather, but after late September, the odds of a hurricane striking the state of Texas drop off significantly. So when we are thinking about prime time to be impacted by a hurricane, we have about one month to go.

So far this season Texas has seen minimal tropical activity, a few very modest rain events. However, the next month or so is typically the busiest time of year. After a burst of activity earlier this month with Erin (now gone) and Fernand (weakening), the Atlantic tropics are expected to be fairly quiet over at least the next week or so. In fact, if we look at the broader picture there are several background factors right now, including a large Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough over the Atlantic, that are creating a more hostile background for storms to form and intensify.

This pattern should persist into early September, so we are looking good for a bit. However, I still think there is a solid window in mid- and late-September when our region will be vulnerable to hurricanes. So yes, things are looking good. But for Texas, the Atlantic hurricane season is not yet over.

Tuesday

For a shining moment on Monday dewpoints in parts of Houston dropped briefly below 60 degrees, but that slightly drier air is now gone. Now, background moisture levels are rising and this will return us to an environment more favorable for rain. Chances today won’t be overly high, less than one-in-three for most locations, with the better chances close to the coast. Overall accumulations will be, for the most part, slight. With mostly sunny skies expect high temperatures this afternoon in the mid-90s, with a few locations further inland reaching the upper 90s. Lows tonight will be warm, in the upper 70s.

Wednesday

Rain chances will increase to about 50 percent on Wednesday, and this should help to keep temperatures in the vicinity of the low- to mid-90s. Accumulations look to be modest, measured in the low tenths of an inch for areas that receive rain, or less.

Thursday

It looks like our likelihood of rain will back off a bit on Thursday, perhaps to around 30 percent. Expect highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A weak front will sag into the Houston region this weekend, and bring an increased likelihood of rain along with lower temperatures. Rain chances will be about 50 percent on Friday, peak on Saturday above 50 percent, and drop back a little bit on Sunday. These showers will be hit or miss, so if you have outdoor activities there’s still a chance they’re going to be fine. But you’ll definitely want to have a contingency plan. Through the weekend most of the region should pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, but I’m sure we will have some higher bullseyes. The front will bring with it dynamics to support higher rainfall rates, so some locations may quickly pick up 3 inches or so. We’ll be keeping a close eye on things.

In terms of temperatures we can expect highs in the lower 90s on Friday, and perhaps the upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

Labor Day and next week

For our holiday next Monday we should see a continuation of the weekend-like weather, with highs in the upper 80s and perhaps a 40 percent chance of rain. Those kinds of temperatures for Labor Day weekend are definitely cooler than normal, so although the front is not going to feel “cold,” it’s likely going to have a meaningful impact on temperatures. Most of next week should remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with additional rain chances later in the week.