We’ll begin today with the tropics. Colorado State University released their annual April hurricane season forecast yesterday. It was pretty impressive. They call for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This is the most active April forecast that they’ve released. This is another signal ahead of the upcoming season that suggests a very busy summer awaits us. I wrote all about the forecast and what you should take from it over at The Eyewall. Busy forecast don’t always translate into busy forecasts for Houston. However, we encourage you to prepare this season, as you should each season.

Today

We’ve got one more spectacular day with low humidity. We’ll warm from the 50s and low-60s this morning well into the 80s this afternoon. It’ll be warm for sure!

But the humidity will be tolerable. Lots of sun means ozone production, so, yes air quality will be an issue this morning and late this afternoon.

Weekend

We will trade off a couple degrees tomorrow for higher humidity. We’ll also begin to add back some more clouds. Look for highs in the lower half of the 80s after morning lows in the 60s. Expect similar temperatures on Sunday but with more humidity and a slightly warmer morning.

On Sunday, the cold front that will play a role in the eclipse forecast will approach from the west. It should push through the Brazos Valley, and it may even get as far south and east as Brookshire, Cypress, or The Woodlands. From there, it slams on the brakes and throws things into reverse, moving back to our north and west, reaching back to I-35 by Monday morning. Besides clouds, there will probably be at least a few showers in the area Sunday as this front maneuvers.

Monday & solar eclipse outlook

As far as Monday’s eclipse goes, we don’t have any real positive news to share today unfortunately. Here in Houston, we have maybe a 10 to 15 percent chance that skies will be clear enough for good viewing. Those odds may be even lower for Austin and San Antonio.

If you absolutely want to chase this thing in Texas, your best bets may be Texarkana or Dallas, where there’s currently about a 30 to 40 percent chance that skies will be favorable. Still not great, but better than much of the rest of the state. Do keep in mind that North Texas is highlighted for potential severe thunderstorms on Monday, however. If you are able to road trip, southeast Missouri or southern Illinois look favorable on Monday. If time, money, and logistics are no object, northern New England or New Brunswick and Quebec in Canada are your best bets.

Weather-wise, locally expect plentiful clouds and isolated to scattered showers Monday. A thunderstorm or two will be possible in the afternoon, especially north of Houston. Highs should be in the low-80s with high humidity.

Rest of next week

The pattern is setting up such that Tuesday looks stormy to our north. Expect a few showers or thunderstorms locally, but I don’t think we’re going to see a whole lot around here Monday night and much of Tuesday.

That could change Wednesday. Somewhere in Texas, we’re likely to see a robust area of thunderstorms (what we call an MCS in meteorology, mesoscale convective system). This would probably develop somewhere in the I-35 corridor on Tuesday night and ride southeast across the eastern half of the state and into Louisiana on Wednesday.

We are highlighted under Tuesday’s severe weather risk for this reason (it would most likely be toward Wednesday morning), as well as Wednesday’s risk. It’s a bit too early to pinpoint details or how much rain we might see, but if you have plans Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, keep an eye on this forecast. Things should calm down a good bit and turn much less humid to close out next week.

Summary: In this post I go a bit deeper into the forecast for Texas locations on Monday, during the solar eclipse. Otherwise, Houston faces a couple of more sunny days before we cloud up and warm up this weekend, with increasing rain chances on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Eclipse weather

On Monday, when we last discussed the overall pattern for cloud cover during the Solar eclipse on April 8, I described the outlook for Texas as “fairly grim.” Unfortunately, three days later, the overall forecast is pretty much the same. This applies both in Houston, where the Sun will see coverage of 94 percent by the Moon, and more broadly in Texas where the path of totality runs along much of the Interstate 35 corridor and includes major cities such as Austin and Dallas.

The overall pattern for the state of Texas is such that we’ll be under a generally southwesterly flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and this will transport a lot of moisture that will result in high clouds as well as possibly a layer of lower clouds. Here are some city-by-city outlooks:

Houston: At the time of the solar eclipse, 1:40 pm CT, skies are likely to be 80 to 100 percent covered by clouds. It may be possible to see the eclipse with solar glasses at times during the nearly three hour period that the Moon moves in front of the Sun.

Austin/Central Texas: Cloud coverage is likely to be in the 70 to 90 percent range. Austin will see a total eclipse for 1 minute, 41 seconds. The odds of this moment being observable with clear skies is therefore fairly low. But it is not non-zero.

Dallas/Northern Texas: The outlook in northern Texas is a little better. Dallas will see the eclipse for 3 minutes and 50 seconds. Cloud coverage is likely to be in the 60 to 80 percent range, with at least a thin layer of upper clouds. Because of the longer duration of the eclipse, the chance of observing at least a few moments with a clear view of totality is therefore higher.

Since there are still a little more than four days until the total eclipse there remains some variability in the forecast. However, the outlook for Monday has been fairly consistent, so our confidence is increasing in this rather drab outlook for Texas during totality. In general, the rule is likely to be that the further north one goes in the state, the better. But only slightly better.

Thursday

It’s a shame the eclipse won’t be today, as we’re going to see crystal clear skies across Houston and much of Texas. With dry air in place we’re likely to see highs of around 80 degrees today, with light southeasterly winds. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer than past nights, dropping to about 60 degrees.

Friday

Another fine, sunny day. Highs will be a bit warmer, likely reaching the mid-80s for most locations. The air will still be reasonably dry, but humidity will be on the rise by Friday evening. Lows drop into the low 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see at least some sunshine, to go with highs in the low 80s. One downside will be fairly pronounced southerly winds, gusting up to about 30 mph in response to an advancing front (which is likely to stall before reaching Houston). Lows on Saturday night will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Sunday

Skies will turn mostly cloudy, and we’ll see some isolated or scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Highs are likely to be in the low 80s. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but most of us should just see clouds. Lows remain warm on Sunday night.

Next week

As noted above, Houston should see mostly cloudy skies on Monday, and that pattern will continue into Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. This period should bring us continued warm and humid air, as well as increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of accumulations we’re not looking at anything too crazy, but most of the area could see between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain. A weak front should arrive midweek to cool us off (a bit) and bring some clearer skies.

Summary: Houston will enjoy a fine spring fling this week, with dry days and cool nights. By later on Saturday the sunshine will largely go away, likely bringing us mostly cloudy skies for the eclipse on Monday. Rain showers are likely for the first half of next week.

Wednesday

Today will be a fine, sunny day. With northerly winds at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, the air is going to be plenty dry. (In fact, we’re unlikely to see dewpoints drop this far down, to about 40 degrees, many more times this spring). Highs will reach the mid- to upper-70s this afternoon before temperatures fall this evening. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-50s.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day with dry air. Winds will be lighter, and come from the west. Highs will be a bit warmer, reaching about 80 degrees. And overnight lows will only drop to around 60 degrees.

It’s perhaps worth noting that we’re now in early April. Spring still has some string to run out, but these weekly fronts we’ve been seeing are likely about to become less frequent. Savor the dry air while it’s here. Because one day fairly soon, it will be gone.

Friday

Expect more sunshine on Friday. But as winds swing to come from the south we’ll see warmer air. I expect highs to push into the mid-80s on Friday, with overnight lows dropping into the low 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see partly sunny skies, with highs of around 80 degrees. These conditions will be somewhat marred by an approaching front, which will help generate strong southerly winds from the Gulf. Gusts on Saturday afternoon could reach about 30 mph. Lows on Saturday night will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Sunday

Sunday will be cloudy, with highs of around 80 degrees. Some light, scattered showers will be possible, as the aforementioned front stalls out near Houston, but I suspect most of the area will see sprinkles at most. The air will feel fairly humid. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 70 degrees.

Monday

We’ve been tracking the eclipse weather for awhile now, and the forecast continues to look poor. We’re likely to see cloudy skies in the Houston area on Monday, with scattered light to moderate rain showers. In Houston the Moon will begin covering the Sun shortly after noon, peaking in coverage at 1:40 pm CT. So it will get fairly dark in the early afternoon hours. Highs will reach about 80 degrees.

Of course the path of totality for the eclipse runs through Texas, along much of the Interstate 35 corridor. The forecast there looks a little bit better, but only a little. Most of our major global model guidance continues to show cloudy skies for much of Texas, with perhaps the northern part of the state having the best chance for some partly cloudy skies. We’ll take a deeper look into this tomorrow morning.

Next week

Tuesday and Wednesday should see additional healthy rain chances before some kind of front finally pushes through. It looks fairly weak, but could drop overnight lows back down to around 60 degrees.

Summary: A front will move through Houston this morning, leading to some beautiful weather through Friday. The weekend turns warmer and more humid, with some showers possible on Sunday, and likely on Monday and Tuesday. That may well spoil the eclipse viewing in Houston.

Tuesday

We’re seeing a broken line of showers, with a few isolated thunderstorms, across the region this morning as a cold front moves through the area from west to east. These showers should move east of Houston by 8 or 9 am, with drier air moving in behind. As a result we’ll see clearing skies by late this morning or early afternoon at the latest. This sunshine should allow highs to reach the lower 80s this afternoon before the region cools off nicely, with lows dropping into the low 50s tonight. It will be breezy this evening as winds gust up to about 30 mph from the north-northwest.

Wednesday

This will be a fine spring day, with highs likely in the mid-70s and lots of sunshine. It will be a bit windy, with gusts of perhaps 20 mph, as more dry air moves in. Conditions settle down overnight, with clear skies and lows in the 50s.

Thursday

This will be another exceptional day, with highs around 80 degrees and lots of sunshine. Winds will be light. Lows on Thursday night will drop again into the 50s.

Friday

While the onshore flow will start to reestablish itself, this should be a mostly sunny day with highs around 80 degrees and fairly dry air. Overnight lows will, however, be a bit warmer, only dropping to around 60 degrees overnight.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see a transition to warmer, and more humid weather. We’ll see some clouds on Saturday, and increasing southerly winds. It could be gusty at times. Highs will be around 80 degrees. As atmospheric moisture levels increase, Sunday will be a mostly cloudy day with a chance of light showers. Highs will again be around 80 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Eclipse Monday

A dying front will stall over the region this weekend, and it will lead to increased rain chances to start next week, on Monday and Tuesday. In terms of accumulations, most of the area is likely to see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, but of course details are difficult to parse this far out.

What that means for our skies on Monday is that clouds are likely at the time of the eclipse, which will peak at 1:40 pm CT over Houston with 94 percent of the Sun covered by the Moon. I can’t say for certainty that it will be cloudy during the early afternoon hours on Monday, but we’re continuing to trend that way.

What about the line of totality, where the Sun is completely obscured by the Moon? This runs from South Texas to Northeast Texas. At this time much of the state is still likely to see partly to mostly cloudy skies along the path of totality, but there is some chance that areas of north Texas might see clearing skies as the aforementioned front pushes down to the coast. We’ll see. The outlook is still fairly grim, but perhaps not so grim as yesterday.