The first half of this week will be messy, with slow-moving and stalling cold fronts leading to high rainfall chances and mostly muggy weather. The second half of the week should be clear and cool before unsettled weather returns for the weekend. (We also answer a question we’ve received several times this weekend—is this going to be a bad hurricane season for the Gulf?)
Monday
Temperatures are incredibly warm (about 70 degrees) and muggy this morning, and will remain so today as highs get into the mid-70s under cloudy skies. Throughout the day a front will sag into into the region just northwest of the metro area (see map below), and this will serve as a focus for moderate to heavy rainfall for places such as College Station and areas north of Highway 105. However, the Houston metro area is unlikely to see more than a couple of tenths of an inch of rain today.
This dewpoint map shows the front’s location at 6pm Monday. (Weather Bell)
Monday night and Tuesday
The front finally pushes through Houston, to the coast, during the overnight hours. This should allow lows in the Houston to drop into the 50s, with light rain. However, almost as soon as the front reaches the coast at sunrise Tuesday, it probably will lift back inland—almost as if Mother Nature were playing an accordion. The bottom line is that light to moderate rainfall chances will continue on Tuesday, especially to the north of Interstate 10. And local temperatures and humidity will vary greatly due to the position of the front. Fog may also be an issue near the coast.
Good morning. Before we get into the forecast—which looks quite wet for much of next week—I wanted to mention the red and brown grime people noticed on their cars Thursday morning. It can be traced to a large dust cloud over northern Mexico, from which dust was transported in the atmosphere about 1 to 2 miles above the surface by a vigorous southwesterly flow, and then deposited by Wednesday night’s light rain over Houston.
Friday
Well, much of next week’s forecast is pretty grim. But after a chill start this morning (northern areas such as Conroe and Cleveland recorded a freeze with the clear skies) the rest of Friday will be quite grand. With mostly sunny skies we should expect to see high temperatures of around 70 degrees. The only blemish on the day will be winds building from the southwest, possibly gusting as high as 20 mph. Skies Friday night will be mostly clear, with lows getting down to around 50 in Houston—cooler north, and warmer along the coast.
Low temperatures Friday night will be quite a bit warmer. (Pivotal Weather)
Saturday
The morning will likely dawn with full sunshine, but I think we’ll see a mix of clouds and sun later throughout the day. Some very light rainfall will be possible during the afternoon hours, but I expect most everyone will stay dry. High temperatures will again get up to around 70 degrees. I’d expect temperatures on Saturday night to be about 10 degrees warmer than Friday night, as we enter a warmer, wetter, and more humid period for the region.
Temperatures have fallen into the mid- to upper-30s across most of the metro area this morning, with only areas immediately along the coast holding on to 40-degree readings. Clear skies tonight will allow for another chilly night before Houston warms up for the weekend. Most of next week looks unseasonably warm, likely with a string of nights in the 60s, and much of the rest of February will probably see above normal temperatures. Probably, this recent strong front represents the last gasp of truly cold air this season.
Thursday
Overcast skies this morning will begin to clear by or before noon, but a persistent northwest wind will continue to bring cold air into the region. This should limit high temperatures to about 50 degrees for most, with wind gusts above 20 mph making conditions feel cooler. Winds should die down somewhat overnight, and along with clear skies, this will help inland areas get down into the mid- to upper 30s again.
Onshore winds return Friday, but skies will be sunny all the same. Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees with rather pleasant conditions. With the influence of southerly winds, lows on Friday night will likely only drop into the 50s for most of the area under mostly clear skies.
Winter returns to Houston today as a cold front has pushed through most of the region already this morning. We’ll see much colder temperatures for sure. In addition, we might have some wintry weather overnight while most of us are sleeping. It will not amount to anything that would impact travel overnight or during Thursday morning’s commute, but nevertheless we will discuss it in today’s post.
Today
The cold front is now through about 80 to 90 percent of the region. Temperatures have fallen into the 40s out near Katy and Rosenberg and up toward Lake Conroe. We’re in the mid 50s in Houston proper.
Observations as of 5:30 AM show that the cold front is already just about through the entire region. (NOAA)
Coastal areas that are still in the 60s or even near 70 will see the front arrive over the next couple hours. The Port Arthur area may have to wait until late morning or Noon for the front to swing through.
Temperatures will settle into the 40s and 50s. Because of the early frontal passage, we may see temperatures level out or warm back to the mid 50s this afternoon before resuming their fall tonight. Look for a northwesterly breeze as well to keep it feeling a bit colder.
It has been mostly dry so far. Scattered showers should develop this morning, especially from Houston east and south. I think the quicker timing of the front is out of sync with what we need in the upper atmosphere to get showers and storms going, and that’s why this system is going to disappoint in the rain department overall.Otherwise it will be overcast to mostly cloudy today.
Tonight
The back edge of this system is going to swing through the area overnight. As it does so, it may have just enough moisture to work with to squeeze out some precipitation. And with temperatures falling into the 30s across the area, it may be just cold enough to allow for rain showers to mix with ice pellets (sleet) or snow. Again, impacts are unlikely from this, but since it would be such a novelty to see snow in Houston, it’s worth discussing more in depth.
As I wrote yesterday, the exact details of winter weather scenarios in the Southern Plains are inherently difficult to nail down (a topic for another post). For this event, we have high confidence in timing (roughly midnight through 6 AM) and a lack of direct travel impacts. We have somewhat lower confidence in what exactly will fall from the sky.
Different weather models have relatively different solutions for tonight. Most keep the wintry mix out of Houston, but they disagree on how things will look. (Texas Tech, Weather Bell, Pivotal Weather)
The maps above show three different higher resolution weather models and what they predict radar will look like at Midnight tonight. The Texas Tech WRF (top left) and HRRR (bottom) both are rather uninspired, meaning any precip would be light and even the risk of mixing well north of Houston would be pretty low. The NAM model (top right) is a bit more aggressive, which could yield a mix of rain and sleet or snow north of Houston, possibly even into some of our northwest suburbs when the precipitation falls at a heavier rate. Both subsets of models here seem realistically possible, given the condition of the atmosphere tonight. If there’s not enough moisture, you get the first scenario, but if we can overcome that sufficiently, you get the second scenario. It will be interesting to watch the progress of these models through the day today to see which outcome seems more likely.
Either way, accumulation is not expected from this and neither are any tangible impacts. If this changes for some reason today, we’ll update you. Regardless, who am I kidding? I’ll probably be up at 2 AM looking out the window.
Overnight lows will fall into the low or mid 30s north and west of Houston, while it should be in the upper 30s in the city and elsewhere away from the coast.
Overnight lows will be above freezing but in the 30s away from the coast. (Pivotal Weather)
Quick reminder: A good old fashioned winter storm is underway in West Texas with winter storm warnings from Marfa through Midland into Wichita Falls and up to Oklahoma City today. Visit the National Weather Service for the latest forecast information, and visit DriveTexas.org if you are planning to travel northwest of the Houston region today or tonight.
