Month: June 2021

Do you know where you were 20 years ago this morning? I was slowly walking north along T C Jester Boulevard, waist deep in water from an overflowing White Oak Bayou. Tropical Storm Allison had returned the night before, deluging the city, particularly central regions near the Texas Medical Center, and east Houston. I had been caught unawares, with some friends at a Bob Schneider concert on Washington Avenue. The rains were so loud we heard them pounding on the roof, over the rock and roll music. After leaving the concert early I’d been unable to get home, across the raging river that was Interstate 10. So I parked my car on a high median and tromped around Montrose all night. The next morning as the waters receded a bit, I retrieved my vehicle and drove to Interstate 610 North. But again, I had to park my car outside my neighborhood as Oak Forest was flooded. So I slogged up T C Jester toward my street, looking at flooded homes, marveling but dismayed at what had happened. It all seemed otherworldly. This was my introduction to flooding in Houston, and I vowed to never be surprised by such an event again. I began writing about weather more for the Houston Chronicle, and eventually became a meteorologist. The rest is history—but I will never forget Allison and I suspect, if you live in Houston, neither will you.

Wednesday

We need not worry ourselves about flooding this week. A few very light showers will be possible this morning, but anything that forms will be scattered and fleeting. Winds will be light, out of the south. Some sunshine will break through the clouds this afternoon as temperatures rise into the low 90s. Tonight will be warm and muggy. Those dewpoints in the upper 70s are why your glasses are fogging up, or why even a short walk through the parking garage is pretty miserable.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days will be warm, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Thursday will be partly if not mostly cloudy, but Friday should be mostly sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see more sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. It’s gonna be warm, y’all, so take care outside during the warmest part of the day. Some very slight rain chances return Sunday afternoon and evening as the high pressure system retreats, but for now I’m anticipating that we’re all going to stay dry.

Next week

The start of next week looks to be partly sunny, with at least some slight to moderate rain chances. The bigger question is what happens after that due to unsettled weather. A dying front may bring some rain chances southward, or we may see the influence of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. More on that below.

Tropics

The main global models are continuing to suggest that a low pressure system may form in the southern Gulf of Mexico next week, perhaps in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. There is now modest agreement that something tropical is going to happen. The European model’s ensemble system, for example, says there is at least a 25 percent chance of a tropical storm forming in the western Gulf of Mexico during the second half of next week.

As for what develops after this, or whether the system tracks into Mexico, Texas, or further eastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, it’s really difficult to say anything. Most, but not all, of the model guidance keeps this system at tropical storm strength or below. For now, this is something to keep an eye on because forecast models are going to be all over the place. When we can say more, we will.

Matt and I are thrilled to share with you that Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner has proclaimed today, June 8, 2021, as Space City Weather Day in Houston, Texas. We’re grateful to Houston City Council Member Abbie Kamin for nominating the site for this recognition, and we thank the mayor and entire city council for this honor.

Why do we care about this? Well, neither Matt nor myself were born in Houston. I arrived here in 1997, and Matt about a decade later. Both of us have made our homes here, begun to raise our families here, and consider Houston our home. We are just so happy to be able give something back to this community that has given so much to us.

Tuesday

With the departure of last week’s rain showers, Houston’s weather is turning warmer and more humid, with dewpoints in the mid- to upper 70s. This means that sticky summer conditions are here to stay. Perhaps it is appropriate, then, that Space City Weather Day will be hot and humid.

Mostly cloudy skies this morning should give way to partly sunny conditions this afternoon, with highs in the low 90s. There is a slight chance, perhaps about 20 percent, of rain for areas north of Interstate 10. But yeah, probably not. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, and lows tonight will not drop below 80 degrees for some areas.

Wednesday

With high pressure building and a capping inversion in place, rain chances should end completely on Wednesday, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs likely in the low- to mid-90s. This will herald the arrival of summer proper in Houston. Overnight conditions will again provide little relief.

Thursday and Friday

The story remains the same. As you probably know, summer in Houston beneath a ridge of high pressure means warm weather, sunny skies, and ample humidity. Highs probably will settle somewhere in the low- to mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

We will likely see more of the same this weekend. Saturday, almost certainly, will be sunny and hot. That seems the probable outcome for Sunday as well, although the forecast is made a little uncertain with the potential disruption of our high pressure system and slight chance of showers. However, when we fall under these kinds of sunny and hot summertime patterns they tend to stick around for awhile.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to highlight the possibility of a tropical depression forming in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and it seems that some fragment of this tropical energy will eventually track toward the Gulf of Mexico next week. This may spin something up in the Bay of Campeche about a week or 10 days from now, perhaps a tropical depression, but it’s not something we’re overly concerned with for now. Although it may eventually lead to higher rain chances next week, in forecasting terms, this is a long way off and we just can’t say anything more.

Good morning. The threat of widespread, heavy rainfall has ended, and Houston will now enter a much more summer-like pattern. Looking back at last week, the map below shows seven-day rainfall totals, which varied widely across the region. Much of the area saw between 3 and 10 inches of rain, which periodically led to street flooding under the stronger storms. This is more or less the definition of a Stage 1 flood event for us. We’re glad to move beyond it.

Monday

This morning has started out cloudy, but we should see more sunshine as the day goes on, and as a result high temperatures will likely reach about 90 degrees for much of the area. A few scattered, strong storms are possible mainly north of Interstate 10 later this morning and during the afternoon, but they should progress from west to east fairly quickly. Otherwise, it will be breezy, with winds out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, and gusting higher. Lows tonight will be sticky, in the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As high pressure builds this week, we’ll eventually reach a period of mostly sunny skies. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday the high won’t yet be fully established, so we’ll retain some slight rain chances—perhaps about 20 percent—each day. Otherwise we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, along with highs of around 90 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Right now I think both of these days will yield mostly sunny skies and warm summertime temperatures, with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances should be low to near-zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather for the coming weekend is a bit uncertain as a weak front will drift into Texas, and may make some progress toward our region. At this point I doubt it will have much effect on our temperatures, but it may allow for the development of scattered showers. At this point, I’d bet on hot and sunny this weekend, but I’m far from confident in that outlook. Stay tuned.

Tropics Outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season began a week ago, and we’re seeing some suggestions in the global models of potential activity in the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week. While this certainly seems possible, it is beyond the ability of any model to accurately depict what will happen that far out. My guess would be some sort of tropical depression may move into or form in the southern Gulf of Mexico, rather than anything significantly more organized.

However, it’s that time of year, and we’ll keep an eye on things for you because the Gulf is fairly warm already. In return, we ask that you not bite when someone on social media shares a single run, of a single model, depicting a hurricane in the Gulf ten or more days from now. That kind of information is just not credible and usually intended to stoke fear.

A few days ago we anticipated that the worst of the rains would hit Houston this weekend. However, that no longer is likely to be the case as the biggest threat has begun to shift east of the Houston metro area over Louisiana. Nevertheless, we are going to maintain our Stage 1 flood alert through Sunday, as it will still be possible for localized areas to see heavy rainfall and some brief street flooding this weekend. But to be clear, most of the Houston region will not experience this.

Friday offers a case in point. Whereas most of Houston saw a few drops or perhaps one-tenth of an inch of rain, communities such as Bacliff, San Leon, and Kemah right along the west side of Galveston Bay saw 6 inches or more, which quickly flooded streets and even a few homes. There is the potential for this kind of isolated storm again today. It’s the classic Houston situation, you know? Some areas will see sunshine and dry roads, and a few miles away storms may be training.

The bottom line is that you should keep an umbrella handy this weekend. Rain chances are fairly high across the region, although we expect most of you to receive 1 inch or less through Sunday. We’re increasingly confident the heavy rainfall threat will end by Sunday evening, after which we’ll transition to a more summer-like pattern. Unless this forecast changes dramatically, we’ll see you on Monday morning.