Month: March 2024

Summary: The weekend continues to look fairly wet, with early Sunday morning the time at which we’re most likely to see heavy rainfall and organized storms.

As expected, storms on Friday brought some heavy rainfall and hail into the greater Houston region. The worst of this occurred in southern Fort Bend County, near Needville. Hail as large as 2.75 inches in diameter, which is very nearly the size of a baseball, was reported there and caused significant damage to structures. Fortunately, the conditions for severe weather are less favorable moving forward into today and Sunday.

So what should you anticipate? The radar is quiet this morning, and should remain so into the early afternoon hours. It is possible that a storm system to our southwest will move into Houston late this afternoon or early evening. However I think the most likely outcome is that it veers south of our area, or weakens substantially. Probably, then, we’ll see scattered, light to moderate showers this afternoon and evening. But there is a slight chance of some stronger thunderstorms we cannot entirely dismiss.

The forecast for tonight and Sunday morning is a little more interesting. It appears as though a fairly strong atmospheric disturbance will approach from the west and produce a line of showers and thunderstorms tonight. In terms of timing, I’d anticipate these storms arriving on our western doorstep between 3 am and 6 am, and then pushing through Houston around sunrise and off the coast shortly afterward. Accumulations will vary widely, but I expect 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible.

For the rest of Sunday, we can anticipate on and off showers throughout the day, with cloudy skies and the mid-70s. I’m afraid the chance of rain will not entirely go away until drier air starts arriving behind a front on Sunday night.

The bottom line is that this weekend looks fairly wet, but perhaps not disastrously so. Please remain weather aware as you venture out and about. We’ll update further this weekend, if necessary.

Summary: The threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening has increased a bit.

Good afternoon, all. I’m jumping in after looking at the latest data about conditions for the rest of the day, and this evening. We’ve seen plenty of daytime heating, and the atmosphere looks fairly ripe to produce storm activity. The bottom line is this: We’re going to see a risk of thunderstorms, some of which could become severe, this afternoon and evening in Houston. If you’re going to be out and about—and it’s a Friday night in Houston, the last weekend of the rodeo, so everyone is going to be going everywhere—you really need to be weather aware. That means checking conditions before you head out to your destination, and again before heading home.

Here’s what will probably happen. Showers and thunderstorms are already beginning to develop to the west of Houston, and these will migrate into the metro area later today, probably beginning some time around 3 pm. Some of these storms are likely to blow up, and become severe. NOAA has broad-brushed the entire metro area with a slight risk of damaging winds and hail, some of which could be 1 inch or more in diameter. While we cannot entirely rule out tornadoes, they seem like a much lower probability occurrence. Not everyone will see strong thunderstorms; indeed some locations may receive no rain at all today.

These storms will likely peak during the period from 4 to 7 pm CT before waning with the loss of daytime heating after sunset. After this we should see a break until the resumption of rain showers sometime on Saturday, probably at noon or later.

Summary: Houston faces the prospect of a wet weekend, with the stalling of a cold front nearby. There is the potential for severe weather, in the form of strong thunderstorms and possibly some hail, but for the most part the major watch item is moderate to heavy rainfall. Chances appear to be best from midday Saturday to midday Sunday. Some street flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Friday

A check of the radar this morning reveals fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to our west, between Sealy and Austin. Some of that activity is expected to work its way into Houston this morning, but we’re likely to see scattered, light showers for the most part. These should clear out by late morning, and I actually expect to see a few hours of sunshine during late morning or early afternoon.

As a result I expect temperatures to briefly pop up into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. This heating should help produce conditions somewhat more favorable for rain showers late this afternoon and during the evening hours. I’d expect to see some of this activity approach from the west a couple of hours before sunset and then push into Houston.

Rodeo forecast

For the first time in a while this year, we have the potential for some dynamic weather during the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo this evening. It’s no slam dunk, but there is the chance of some rain and possibly strong thunderstorms during the 6 pm to 8 pm time frame this evening for much of the central and northern Houston area. By no means will everyone see rainfall or storms, but the potential is there. As you head out to the show this evening, please be weather aware. Temperatures, otherwise, will be mild, in the 70s. This chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through about midnight.

Saturday

We may well see a reprieve from activity overnight, and into the morning hours of Saturday. But some time, perhaps around noon, we should see rain showers building up over the area. This pattern should persist for about the next 24 hours, with the threat of on-again, off-again shower activity lingering into the middle of Sunday. Not all areas will see heavy rain, and I think there may be a fairly wide variance in rain totals. But most areas can probably expect to pick up between 1 and 4 inches of rain through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will likely top out in the mid-70s, with cloudy skies. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 60s.

Sunday

The overall wet pattern will continue through at least Sunday morning, and potentially into the early afternoon hours as the aforementioned front slowly pushes through the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s, again. We may see some partially clearing skies during the afternoon hours, but we’ll have to wait for the evening or overnight hours for substantially drier air to move in. As a result it now appears as though lows on Monday morning will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Next week

It will be pretty darn nice. Monday and Tuesday should bring at least partly, if not mostly, sunny skies back into Houston. We’ll see highs in the 60s and 70s, with drier air, and lows in the 40s and 50s (warmer near the coast, and cooler inland). The forecast starts to get fuzzy by mid-week, with chances for rainfall returning by Wednesday or Thursday along with highs of around 80 degrees.

Site note

We’ll update on the potential for heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday, and any flooding chances, if necessary.

Summary: Rain is coming, but it’s likely to hold off until Friday. If you have weekend plans outdoors you’ll need to consider them carefully as Saturday, especially, looks rather wet. Significant flooding is not a major concern at this point, but we should see plenty of rain this weekend that will put a damper on activities. Things should clear out by Sunday afternoon or evening.

Thursday

Today is the last day when it probably won’t rain for most of the area, for awhile. A slowly advancing front—still far away from Houston at this point—will nonetheless set the stage for a more disturbed atmospheric pattern. However, the chances of showers and thunderstorms today will be low due to a capping inversion that will likely prevent the atmospheric lift that is necessary for widespread rain. As a result, we’re likely to see just clouds today, with an occasional very light shower. Highs will be in the low- to mid-80s, with gusty southerly winds, and plenty of humidity.

Rodeo forecast

It will be mild heading into the show this evening, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. While I cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, chances are it will be dry. Winds will still be gusty from the south, but less than earlier in the day. Temperatures after the show will still be in the 70s, and the overnight low is only going to drop to around 70 in Houston. So warm and humid, for sure.

Friday

As the front advances closer to our region, rain chances will improve on Friday. Most locations should have about a 50 percent chance of seeing rain showers, with the possibility of a thunderstorm. While the overall conditions for heavy rain are more favorable on Saturday, Friday is definitely a day to be weather aware. Otherwise, expect cloudy skies with highs of around 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks wet, and there’s no real way to get around that. I expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 4 inches of rainfall by Sunday evening, with higher isolated totals. This will be driven by the front, now on our doorstep, in conjunction with a series of passing disturbances. Rain is most likely from Saturday morning through around Sunday at noon, after which chances will start to lessen—so potentially improving conditions for the evening of Saint Patrick’s Day. I’m not expecting much, if any flooding, but it’s something we’re going to be watching out for and we’ll be updating as warranted.

Temperatures will be in the 70s this weekend with mostly cloudy skies. The front finally pushes through on Sunday, likely during the afternoon hours. This will bring cooler and drier weather into the area during the overnight hours, with lows likely dropping into the upper 50s on Sunday night.

Next week

Highs will drop into the 60s and low 70s for the first half of next week, with clearing skies and cooler nights in the upper 40s to lower 50s. If you’ve been wanting to see some sunshine, this will be your chance. A coastal low pressure system may bring improved rain chances back into the forecast by later Wednesday and Thursday, but the details are very from from being set in stone.