Heads up Houston: Friday afternoon, evening storms look feisty

Summary: The threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening has increased a bit.

Good afternoon, all. I’m jumping in after looking at the latest data about conditions for the rest of the day, and this evening. We’ve seen plenty of daytime heating, and the atmosphere looks fairly ripe to produce storm activity. The bottom line is this: We’re going to see a risk of thunderstorms, some of which could become severe, this afternoon and evening in Houston. If you’re going to be out and about—and it’s a Friday night in Houston, the last weekend of the rodeo, so everyone is going to be going everywhere—you really need to be weather aware. That means checking conditions before you head out to your destination, and again before heading home.

Here’s what will probably happen. Showers and thunderstorms are already beginning to develop to the west of Houston, and these will migrate into the metro area later today, probably beginning some time around 3 pm. Some of these storms are likely to blow up, and become severe. NOAA has broad-brushed the entire metro area with a slight risk of damaging winds and hail, some of which could be 1 inch or more in diameter. While we cannot entirely rule out tornadoes, they seem like a much lower probability occurrence. Not everyone will see strong thunderstorms; indeed some locations may receive no rain at all today.

These storms will likely peak during the period from 4 to 7 pm CT before waning with the loss of daytime heating after sunset. After this we should see a break until the resumption of rain showers sometime on Saturday, probably at noon or later.