A Merry Mosquito Christmas, but storms, then winter are coming

Merry Christmas, everyone! It sure doesn’t feel like a holiday out there, between the humidity and quarter-sized mosquitoes. And it’s going to get worse before it gets better. But it will get better.

TODAY

Although it’s moist at the surface, the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere are pretty dry. As a result we’re not going to see too much rain, if any today. The Sun might even peek out from time to time, but that’s just going to make things warmer. Today’s record high is 82 degrees, and we’re likely going to come close to that today.

SATURDAY

I expect Saturday to be a lot like today, albeit with stronger southerly winds during the late morning and afternoon hours. Skies will again be mostly cloudy, with slightly better rain chances. But I’d expect any rain to be very light.

SUNDAY

Storms! A low pressure system will move into the greater Houston region on Sunday in advance of a cold front. This unstable, rising air with spinning motion will create conditions favorable for storms, possibly including damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

The most intense storms seem likely during the middle of the day and afternoon hours. Forecast models have backed off rain totals with this system, so it looks like most areas will see only 0.5 to 2 inches of rain, not enough to cause more than very isolated flooding where training occurs. The storms should end Sunday evening or night.

NEXT WEEK

Hello, winter. Expect highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. I don’t expect the metro area to see a freeze, but we’ll probably get close. I don’t see a significant warm-up for at least the first week of 2016.