August, as usual, will remain hot to the end for Houston

As often is the case, August has been a lousy month for weather in Houston. Certainly, the region did not experience a devastating hurricane this month (ala Harvey), or a massive heat wave (ala August, 2011). However, the average temperature this month has been 88.0 degrees, which is about 3 degrees above normal, and we did have a week straight of 100-degree or warmer days earlier. We won’t be quite that hot during the last week of the month, but we’ll still be plenty warm.

Monday and Tuesday

After a wet Sunday for much of the Houston, pressures are rising and that should bring rain showers to an end for a few days. Skies will be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the region. Lows again will be sultry, falling to only 80 degrees for most of Houston. Any showers that develop should be near the coast, isolated, and briefly lived.

Wednesday and Thursday

A weak front appears likely to stall over north Texas in the middle of the week, and some of the instability related to this could generate some scattered showers across the Houston region. We’re still looking at partly sunny, and warm days with highs in the mid- to upper-90s, however. I’d peg rain chances at about 30 percent both days, with accumulations generally measured in tenths of an inch.

Labor Day weekend

Overall, the upcoming Labor Day weekend looks mostly sunny and dry for the Houston metro area. A front with slightly more oomph could push all the way through Houston by Friday or Saturday. As is common with August “fronts,” these typically bring some drier air but not much in the way of cooling. As a result, daytime highs this weekend will probably reach the mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies. Lows might fall about 5 degrees below where we’ve been, and any drier air would feel quite lovely after this summer. But it remains to be seen how much drier air works its way into Houston.

Tropics

As we get into late August, the tropics have begun to characteristically heat up. However, there remain no imminent threats to the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Dorian formed over the weekend, but it appears bound for Hispaniola, where wind shear and mountainous terrain will most likely weaken the storm considerably.

By this weekend something may spin up in the northeastern or central Gulf of Mexico, but the odds are low that this becomes anything more than a depression. We’ll keep watching, of course.