Tropics coming alive, but we see no imminent Gulf threats

Welcome to the weekend, everyone. We’ve had several questions about tropical activity during the last day or so as the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a couple of areas for likely tropical cyclone formation. None appear likely to present a threat to Texas, but we’re posting anyway to address those questions, and allay concerns. This is also a good reminder that we’ve reached the peak of hurricane season, and the next month, historically, is the time of most concern for Texas.

Here’s the latest five-day map from the National Hurricane Center showing the two systems of Interest, to which we’ve added their “invest” designations.

(National Hurricane Center)

Invest 98L

Forecast models indicate this system has a strong chance of becoming a tropical storm or a hurricane, but the preponderance of tracks develop it after the system has moved away from Florida, and it will likely present no significant threat to land.

Invest 99L

The track of 99L appears to be a little bit more ominous, as it brings the system toward the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center gives it about an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. However, the global models generally anticipate that any system that might develop will fall apart somewhere in the general vicinity of Hispaniola due to unfavorable wind shear.

Certainly it will be worth watching the evolution of 99L over the next week, as there are some scenarios in which it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico. But by far the most likely outcome is a) dissipation or b) some kind of rainfall threat to the Caribbean Sea or Florida over the next five to seven days. As always, if this changes, we’ll update the site.

9 thoughts on “Tropics coming alive, but we see no imminent Gulf threats

  1. Madcougar92

    In an overabundance of caution… I will be evacuating none the less. I live in Katy.

    1. GP

      Yes, after how harvey affected katy and surrounding area, best to seek higher ground 🙂

    2. UncleSam

      Don’t forget, the fastest and safest route is east on the 10, then south on the 45.

      1. Rob

        I10 East…Where there is a fantastic amount of road works perfectly timed with hurricane season…

  2. NH

    Cats here. Evacuation is not an option.Live a few blocks off Galveston Bay.We always breathe a sigh of relief ,as do so many others ,when hurricane season is over.Eric, you are appreciated !

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