Eric Berger

This has been an unprecedented year, heat-wise, so it’s difficult to rely too much on past climate and weather norms. However, we have reached the point of the year after which it is extremely unlikely for a hurricane to strike the state of Texas. The historical odds of doing so after the date of September 24 are approximately 1-in-50.

Despite the fact that the Gulf of Mexico remains toasty warm, if there ever were a year to call the season in late September for Texas, this is the season. Wind shear has been exceptionally high over the last few weeks, and it is showing no signs of abating in the near future. And the overall pattern does not appear to support the movement of tropical systems into the Western Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. The bottom line is that history says we’re done, and the current setup says we’re done. Never say never, but we’re probably done.

That is not to say that we still cannot see a tropical storm or a disturbance that brings us rain. That can happen in October, and has in the past. But these are mostly moisture events rather than serious wind or surge events. This also says nothing about the hurricane odds for Louisiana and points east. It remains an active Atlantic season, which we’re tracking for you on The Eyewall. So my advice is this: Although the Atlantic hurricane season will continue for another couple of months, you can breathe a little easier this morning if you live in Texas.

Tuesday

Houston saw some solid, widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. If you got the rain you needed, that’s great. If you didn’t, well, that’s probably the end of the widespread showers for awhile. We’ll still have some spotty rain chances going forward, but nothing like Monday. For areas south of Interstate 10, chances today are probably about 30 percent, and for areas north they’re much closer to zero percent as the weak front that drove Monday’s storms has moved offshore.

Skies today will be mostly sunny, with a light northeast wind, and highs of around 90 degrees or slightly above. Our air is slightly drier, and this should help low temperatures drop into the low 70s for much of the city, with upper 60s possible for far inland areas.

Wednesday

Another day a lot like Tuesday, with coastal areas seeing a chance of rain, and highs generally in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

The overall pattern more or less continues, with highs in the low 90s and sunny skies. Nights, generally, will drop into the mid-70s. Rain chances will continue to hover in the 10 to 20 percent range, so unlikely for most.

Saturday and Sunday

The upper atmosphere will support the flow of some modestly drier air starting this weekend, so that will allow daytime temperatures to rise a bit. But this will also support more rapid cooling in the evenings, and somewhat lower humidity. Look for highs in the low- to mid-90s this weekend, with sunny skies, and lows in the low 70s except near the coast.

Next week

The overall flow of somewhat drier air should continue next week, with highs generally in the low 90s, and nighttime temperatures in the more seasonable low 70s. It won’t be fall, but it’s something a bit nicer than summer. Truth be told, after the summer we experienced, it should feel pretty good outside. There are some hints of fall’s first real front about 10 days from now, but they’re not strong enough for me to have any confidence. We’ll see.

After a torrid weekend—Sunday’s high temperature of 97 degrees broke the all-time record for September 24 of 95 degrees, which had been set just the previous year—some relief is on the way. A weak front will slowly push southward into the city today. This will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a slight chance of hail and damaging winds. In the front’s wake we’ll see slightly cooler days and nights, with drier air making for somewhat more pleasant mornings and evenings.

Monday

As of 6:30 am CT we’re seeing storms fire up near Cypress and Huntsville, and the focus of activity during the morning hours will generally be along and north of Interstate 10. This afternoon and evening the better chances for rain will shift further south and closer to the coast. Overall rain chances are probably about 70 percent, with amounts varying widely.

Some areas will see a tenth or two of an inch, whereas some locations beneath stronger thunderstorms may pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. Stronger thunderstorms will also carry the potential for severe weather, like hail and damaging winds. However, the dynamics are not super supportive for severe weather, so while it’s a possibility, I don’t anticipate bedlam out there.

In terms of temperatures, they’re going to be dependent on cloud coverage and storms this afternoon. Most areas will probably reach the low 90s, however. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-70s for much of the area, with a chance of showers lingering south of Interstate 10.

Tuesday

The aforementioned front is essentially going to stall out along the coast. For areas south of Interstate 10, then, a decent chance of showers will persist on Tuesday. Further inland, however, rain chances will likely be only 10 or 20 percent. Expect daytime highs in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies, and light northeast winds. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the mid-70s. The air will be slightly (but only very slightly) drier than it has been.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The latter half of the week should see high temperatures generally in the low-90s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will probably drop back to 20 percent, again, with this higher likelihood nearer to the coast. Nights will generally fall into the mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The overall atmospheric setup favors a slightly drier flow of air this weekend, and with lower dewpoints we’ll see a couple of effects. First of all, rain chances will be basically zero, with sunny skies. Highs will likely reach the mid-90s, but with the drier air we’ll also cool off more quickly in the evenings, so it should feel a little bit nicer outside in those instances.

Next week

This pattern should more or less continue into next week, however the trend may be toward a bit cooler conditions by the middle of next week. It’s possible that we could see something of a stronger front in about 10 to 14 days. There are hints of it in the models and the overall pattern. But the signal is not particularly strong, so my confidence is low. For now, enjoy your extended summer, Houston.

Good morning. Houston faces four more hot, sunny, and humid days that will carry us through the weekend. However, unlike earlier this summer when high pressure remained intransigent, this high pressure system will start to shift eastward by this weekend. This will allow a weak front to move into, and stall over the Houston region, providing some slight relief in terms of rain showers and moderately cooler temperatures.

Thursday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid-90s for most of the area, with some inland points possibly reaching the upper 90s. Winds will be light, out of the southeast, at 5 to 10 mph. There is a very slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, perhaps 10 percent, this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be sticky and warm, only briefly dropping below 80 degrees.

Friday

The last day of the work week will be a lot like Thursday, albeit with a bit higher chance of rain. I’d look for the possibility of thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours, with perhaps a 20 or 30 percent likelihood of that happening. It’s something we’ll keep an eye on for Friday night lights, and this being Homecoming season for many schools.

Saturday and Sunday

At 1:49 am CT on Saturday we’ll reach the September equinox, the point at which the Sun crosses the equator and heads south. This is the traditional start of fall, and the march toward winter in the Northern Hemisphere, but Mother Nature will care not a single whit this year.

The weekend just looks hot and mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s for much of the city, and the possibility of upper 90s further inland. Rain chances, again, will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent each day, but mostly it’s just gonna be sunny outside. Nights will continue to be warm.

Next week

As I mentioned above, a weak front is going to move toward the region by the end of the weekend, and this will change our weather somewhat for next week. I’m afraid I still don’t have great confidence in that that means. It could lead to widespread rainfall accumulations for much of the area in excess of 1 inch, or it could be a tenth of an inch, or two. Monday will have the best chance of rain. The front also could lead to nighttime lows in the lower 70s, or we might get lucky and drop into the upper 60s. At the least, it should mean highs fall into the low 90s for awhile.

Good morning. Our region has enjoyed a few days with modestly drier air, but unfortunately that party is coming to an end today. We’re headed back into the mid-90s for the rest of the week, with ample sunshine and humidity. This pattern will change late in the weekend as as weak front approaches the area and likely stalls out, increasing rain chances and bringing some slightly cooler temperatures to start next week.

Wednesday

Our overall air mass remains slightly drier than normal this morning, but that will change as the onshore flow really kicks into gear today. This will bump up dewpoints into the 70s, and my friends let me tell you, that is Houston humid. Despite the increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere, our skies should remain mostly sunny today as highs top out in the mid-90s for most of the region away from the coast. Winds will come from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Rain chances are essentially zero.

Thursday and Friday

We’re going to remain warm and humid, with highs generally in the mid-90s. A few far-inland locations may even ‘luck’ into the upper 90s. But there is something of a limit on how hot our temperatures can get this year, due to day length and solar angle. At the height of summer, the Sun reached an altitude of 84 degrees above Houston (the zenith, recall, is 90 degrees). At this time of year the solar angle is 60 degrees. It’s still going to be hot, though. We’ll also see some isolated showers, with perhaps a 20 percent chance of rain each day. Lows are going to be fairly sultry, only briefly dropping into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same, with highs in the mid-90s, mostly. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent, with sunny skies. Nights will be warm. The aforementioned front is going to be dragging down toward the region later on Sunday, but right now I don’t think it will have too much of an effect on the weekend forecast.

Next week

The arrival of the front should increase cloud cover and rain chances to start next week. There are still a lot of details I’m not particularly confident in, such as the strength of the front, where it will stall out, and precisely how long it is going to hang around. But the bottom line is that we should see some slightly cooler days, with highs in the low 90s, and fairly healthy rain chances through the first half of next week. If I’m ballparking things, I’d set expectations at 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, but that’s kind of a hand-waving guess at this point.