Eric Berger

In brief: Yes, you are not crazy. Monday did feel incredibly hot outside, and the smoky haze from agricultural fires in Central America did not help. We’re now going to see a pattern change that could bring storms into the metro area as early as this afternoon. Today will be a day to be weather aware and we’ll update the site again by around noon.

Memorial Day madness

Houston did not set record high temperatures on Monday. The official high at Bush Intercontinental was 96 degrees, two degrees shy of the all time high of 98 degrees for May 27. However, it felt extremely warm thanks to incredibly high dewpoints. For example, at Houston’s Hobby Airport the heat index reached 115 degrees. This is a combination of temperature and relative humidity.

Even if you don’t have context for how hot that is—and believe me, it’s hot—Houston has never had a heat index of 115 degrees in May before. Moreover, Hobby Airport did not have a heat index that warm during all of last summer, which was excruciatingly hot. You’ve got to go all the way back to August of 1998 for a reading that high. Last summer recorded much hotter temperatures, but the humidity was somewhat lower, in part due to drought-like conditions. Fortunately, we’re now going to step back from the abyss of extreme heat for awhile.

Tuesday

Today will not be nearly so hot. Partly cloudy skies will help to moderate temperatures a bit, although we are still likely to see highs in the low 90s with plenty of humidity. The difficult question is severe weather potential, with the possibility of storms this afternoon, and then again overnight. As of 6:30 am CT there was a cluster of storms near Dallas, moving southward. The question is what happens to this system, and whether it holds together long enough to affect the Houston area. There has been a lack of consistency in our guidance.

Right now my sense is that this system will hold together as it approaches our northern areas, such as Conroe and College Station, shortly after noon. Then we could see this line of severe weather move from north to south, with strong thunderstorms, wind, and hail pushing into Houston during the afternoon hours. It could reach the coast by 4 or 5 pm. The usual severe storm risks are there, with heavy rainfall, damaging, winds, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes. We will update the site by around noon when we have more confidence in this forecast.

Then there is the potential for a second round of storms tonight after midnight. However, this is probably conditional on what happens this afternoon. I.e. if we get a fairly pronounced line of storms this afternoon, things will be quieter tonight. But if storms peter out later today before reaching Houston, a more pronounced line of storms could pass through tonight.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of partly to mostly cloudy days, which will help limit highs to the upper 80s. Each day will also see a healthy chance of showers, although the likelihood of severe weather appears to be considerably lower. Nights will be warm, in the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The end of the week and the weekend look slightly warmer, with daily highs of around 90 degrees and partly sunny days. The atmosphere will remain somewhat unsettled, but daily rain chances will drop to perhaps 30 percent, so if you have outdoor plans this weekend I don’t see anything like a total washout at this point. Let’s see how the forecast evolves.

In brief: Just a short update this morning due to the Memorial Day holiday, but it’s warranted due to the extreme heat over inland parts of the metro area. After today we’ll see somewhat cooler weather and a return of some modest rain chances later this week.

Monday

Today will be sunny and hot, with much of the area seeing high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. This will be the region’s hottest weather since late September of last year, and it will feel sweltering outside. Please take heat precautions if you are outdoors from the late morning to late afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, during the overnight hours as a boundary slides toward the Houston region. However the most likely scenario is that a capping inversion remains solidly in place, preventing the development of any storms. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees.

Tuesday

A partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the low-90s. Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning will see another chance for some storms, but once again they’ll be battling against a capping inversion. I’d peg the chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night at about 20 percent, but we’ll need to fine tune this in tomorrow’s forecast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be partly sunny days with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Each of these days will see a decent chance of rain, perhaps on the order of 40 percent or so, in the absence of high pressure. However, I don’t have a great handle on the details or the timing. Showers will be most likely along and north of Interstate 10, where accumulations of 1 inch or more are possible.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances will linger into the weekend, with highs likely in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. At this point both days should see at least partly sunny skies, with Sunday having the greater chance of being mostly rain free.

Have a great holiday!

In brief: After a few mostly cloudy days we’ll see increasingly clear skies and this will help temperatures march upwards. We’ll go from highs in the low-90s today, to mid-90s this weekend to upper-90s by Memorial Day. After that a weak front will provide some modest relief.

Thursday

After a cloudy start we should see partly sunny skies this afternoon, and this should help to push high temperatures into the low-90s. Winds will blow from the south at 10 to 15 mph, with occasionally higher gusts. Once again, we should see some fairly strong storms develop in central Texas to the north of Austin. While these will propagate eastward, I expect them to remain north of Highway 105 once again, with no impact on the greater Houston metro area. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.

Friday

A day very similar to Thursday, although high temperatures are likely to be a degree or two higher.

Saturday and Sunday

We’ll see mostly sunny skies this weekend, with high temperatures solidly in the mid-90s. We will be hitting our first highs above 95 degrees nearly three weeks earlier than normal, in case you were wondering whether this is typical weather for late May. It’s not. Nighttime lows remain sultry, around 80 degrees.

Memorial Day

Everything comes together on Monday, sunny skies and the characteristic jump in temperatures associated with an approaching front, to push our highs into the upper 90s. If we look at wet bulb globe temperatures—a measure of heat stress in direct sunlight that takes into account air temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle, and cloud cover—we see the potential for an ‘extreme’ day in terms of heat. Please bear this in mind if you have outdoor activities planned.

Tuesday and beyond

We’ll see a slight chance of rain on Monday evening as the front approaches and moves through, but for now I don’t expect anything more than a dusting of showers. Highs next week look more reasonable, in the low 90s, with overnight lows perhaps in the mid-70s. We’ll also see some daily rain chances in the Wednesday through Saturday period, although they may be of the 20 percent daily variety. I’m not sure yet. In any case, the very end of May should see a bit of a return to normalcy.

In brief: A dying front brings a chance of storms well to the north of Houston tonight, but for most of us the story remains one of heat. Temperatures will peak over the weekend, with Memorial Day looking especially hot.

Wednesday

Expect another warm day in Houston, with highs of around 90 degrees due to mostly cloudy skies. It will be a little windier than Tuesday, with southeasterly gusts up to about 20 mph. With the humidity, it will feel plenty hot outside during the daytime hours before lows drop to about 80 degrees tonight.

For areas north of Houston, and by this we are probably talking about locations north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County, there is a chance of storms later this evening and during the overnight hours as a dying frontal boundary pushes a line of storms through northern Texas. There is some question as to how far south these storms will get. It is possible that locations such as College Station and Huntsville could see some thunderstorms tonight. There is even a slight chance that locations further south, including The Woodlands, could see some of this action. However, I think a capping inversion will probably prevent such activity for most of the Houston metro area, including at least the southern half of Montgomery County.

Other than this, we should be rain-free through the weekend.

Thursday

Expect partly sunny skies and a high of about 90 degrees with plenty of humidity. Another warm night.

Friday

As skies turn mostly sunny, expect highs to nudge up into the low 90s with plenty of humidity.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

The holiday weekend looks hot and sultry. Highs will rise from the low 90s on Saturday to the mid- to upper-90s by Memorial Day with mostly sunny skies. Folks, it’s going to be Houston hot this weekend, so take all appropriate heat precautions. That includes sunscreen during the daytime with the Sun reaching an angle of 80 degrees during the early afternoon hours.

Next week

So what happens after Memorial Day? It still looks like some sort of weak front arrives on Monday night or Tuesday. It’s late May, so your expectations should be for slightly cooler weather, and slightly drier air, and not much more. Still, beggars cannot be choosers at this time of year. Rain chances look a little bit improved later next week, but we’ll have to see about that. I don’t have much confidence in such a prediction.

Last week’s storms

Check back later this morning as Matt has a post on last week’s storms, and where they share some commonality with Houston’s history of similar events. It’s a great article with a lot of historical context.