Eric Berger

Good morning. Heat remains the dominant storyline of our forecast for the remainder of August, and conditions look to be especially warm from now through the weekend. However, I’m watching for a chance of showers this afternoon and early evening, and for some potential changes in the forecast next week. Also, we’ll discuss a tropical blob in the Caribbean Sea that’s expected to move into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Thursday

Today is simply going to be blazing hot. Highs will range from near 100 degrees right along the coast to around 105 degrees or higher for inland locations such as Spring, College Station, and Kingwood. Skies will be sunny. With that said, some of our high-resolution modeling is indicating the possibility of an atmospheric disturbance moving southward later today, and this could produce scattered showers from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. I will freely admit that this forecast could be a total bust, especially with high pressure in place. But I think there’s at least some hope for a pleasant surprise with scattered showers this afternoon.

Friday

Another hot day, but temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler than Thursday. We’ll again see sunny skies, but there’s also the possibility of a few late afternoon showers.

Saturday and Sunday

No changes in terms of temperatures. We’re looking at highs, generally, in the low 100s. Saturday is going to be sunny and hot. Sunday will as well, but at least there appears to be a slight possibility of some rain showers.

Next week

By early next week the dominant high pressure system will be retreating westward, and that at least opens up the possibility of some changes in our forecast. What form, precisely, those will take is yet unclear. At this point I’d guess highs will still be about 100 degrees, but we’ll see some daytime rain chances—whether those are 20 percent or 50 percent, I cannot say. There’s also a slight chance that a weak front pushes down into the region on Tuesday, which could knock humidity levels down a bit. But that is all very tentative. Our weather may also be influenced by a tropical system moving into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The tropics

For a few days now, the European model has been suggesting that a tropical system will emerge in the Western Caribbean Sea, related to the Central American Gyre, which is basically a broad monsoonal low-pressure system over Central America. Under this scenario a tropical low would then move north, into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Note there is far from universal support for this idea in the global models. In any case, such a system would likely remain away from Texas, and push drier air into our region from the northeast. For more detail on this system, check out our Atlantic hurricane coverage on The Eyewall.

Good morning. Before jumping into the forecast I want to briefly touch on Tuesday’s rainfall, as well as our brief reprieve from extremely hot weather. First, the rainfall. Parts of Galveston and Brazoria counties received a few tenths of an inch of rain from fading Tropical Storm Harold on Tuesday. These were welcome, if brief downpours of tropical rains. The vast majority of the region along and north of Interstate 10, however, received no precipitation whatsoever. The bottom line is that, as expected, our ugly and worsening drought continues. See the end of this post for a discussion of rain chances down the line.

Additionally, the cloudy skies and breezy conditions—the strong easterly winds were part of Harold’s circulation—helped keep a lid on high temperatures. Houston’s Hobby Airport topped out at 97 degrees, and Bush Intercontinental peaked at 97 degrees as well. Both of these locations ended long streaks of days with recordings of 100 degrees or higher. Hobby’s streak was remarkable, 18 days, doubling its previous record of nine days. Hobby has collected meteorological data for nearly a century. Bush IAH ended its streak at 23 days, falling one day short of the city’s all-time record of 24 days, set during the torrid month of August 2011.

Unfortunately, we’re probably going to start new streaks at both locations today. Harold is gone, and extreme heat is back on the menu for a little while longer.

Wednesday

We’re right back to very hot weather today, with area-wide highs of about 100 degrees, high humidity, and mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift to come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. The key difference for the rest of this week is that we are going to see some weak atmospheric disturbances roll through the area. It’s going to be difficult for these to generate significant rainfall, given the sinking air associated with high pressure. However, it will not be impossible, and therefore each day should carry about a 20 percent chance of rain.

Thursday

As high pressure moves almost directly overhead, this should be a very hot day, with highs generally in the low 100s across the area, away from the coast. Afternoon rain chances, again, look to be on the order of 20 percent.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The forecast remains more or less the same, with highs of around 100 degrees, mostly sunny skies, and a puncher’s chance of some rain showers.

Next week

This is where the forecast starts to get a little bit more interesting. The high pressure system that has dominated our weather for much of this summer looks to fade westward, and this should allow for a slight moderation of temperatures. We may also see some better rain chances by Tuesday or so of next week, but that’s far enough into the future I would not want to bet on anything. But I do have some modest hopes, and the end of August is on the horizon.

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As we’ve been telling you since Friday, the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico—which was upgraded to Tropical Storm Harold overnight—is going to go far enough south of the Houston metro region to preclude us from seeing significant effects. We’ll see some easterly breezes, with decent gusts, and we’ll see some clouds. But unfortunately we’re not going to the kind of significant, widespread rainfall needed to help put a dent in our sharpening drought. Instead, we just get more heat.

Please don’t kill the messenger.

Tuesday

Whether you see any effects from Harold will depend on how close you live to the coast. Residents of southern Brazoria and Galveston counties will have the best chances of rain, perhaps 50 percent today, and strongest winds. Gusts above 40 mph are possible today right along the coast. Areas further inland, but south of Interstate 10, will see lesser rain chances of around 30 percent, with slightly less gusty winds. Highs should be below 100 degrees for these areas relatively near the coast.

And parts of Houston north of Interstate 10? Well, it’s just going to be another very hot and mostly sunny day. Highs may reach the low- to mid-100s again for places such as The Woodlands. Rain chances for inland locations are perhaps 10 percent.

Wednesday

This will be a sunny day with highs in the low 100s across the area. With a bit of lingering moisture from Harold, rain chances are perhaps 10 or 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

These two days look really hot, with highs in the 105-degree range likely for much of the area. Skies will be mostly sunny. Rain chances are not zero, so perhaps 10 percent daily.

Saturday and Sunday

Don’t get me wrong, these will be hot and mostly sunny days. But as high pressure eases off to the West, highs may drop back down to around 100 degrees. We’ll also see some weak atmospheric disturbances that could spark some scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Please do not get too excited, as I’d peg rain chances at only about 20 percent.

Next week

If you had hot and mostly sunny on your bingo card for next week, congratulations, you’re a winner! However, I don’t think next week will be as hot as this one, and we’re also going to see some modest rain chances. I don’t think they’ll be higher than 20 or 30 percent each day, but that is a sight better than the 0 to 5 percent we’ve experienced for much of this summer. In case you’re wondering, we’re still about three to five weeks away from when we can anticipate our first decent cold front of the season. It can’t come soon enough, I know.

Tropics

Beyond Harold, which will bring some tropical winds and rains to South Texas, there is a lot happening out there in the Atlantic. While there are no distinct threats to the Gulf of Mexico, or Texas, that can change fairly quickly at this time of year. Be sure and check The Eyewall for a full rundown of all the activity out there, every morning around 7 am CT. Matt has been nerding out with some book-length posts of late.

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Invest 91L in the Gulf to Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 this morning, and since its potential has been realized, it is now Tropical Depression 9. Despite these changes, which were mostly expected, not much has changed from our morning post in terms of expected impacts in Texas and Mexico. Locally in Houston, we expect to see little more than an easterly breeze, a few more clouds, and sporadic showers today and Tuesday. The action is going to be down the coast.

Tropical Storm Warnings are posted along the Texas coast from the Rio Grande River north past Corpus Christi to Port O’Connor. A Tropical Storm Watch extends north from there to Sargent, TX. Looking at TD 9 on satellite this afternoon shows a whole lot of storms. I said it this morning, and I’ll say it again. We are fortunate that this thing has a limited amount of time left over water.

It has all the ingredients you need in place to blow up into a big storm, except the most critical thing: time. The depression is racing west at 18 miles per hour, which means it will be ashore in Texas by Tuesday morning. Impacts will be minor to moderate in South Texas, with the potential for some gusty winds to tropical storm force, mainly south of Corpus Christi and offshore. Meanwhile, beneficial rain will fall in South Texas, where generally 1 to 3 inches will fall. There will likely be a few pockets of 4 to 5 inches in Brush Country and more into the mountains of Mexico.

Rainfall impacts will be minimal north of there, with Houston and San Antonio mostly missing out on anything. In fact, with a bit of a breeze in between the heat ridge to our north and TD 9 to our south, we may have a slightly enhanced risk of fire danger in parts of Texas again on Tuesday. When it fails, it fails hard.

In addition to heavy rain in South Texas, there is also a chance for isolated tornadoes, as is often the case with landfalling tropical systems. But the main issue to impact your daily life in that area will be heavy rain.

By Wednesday, TD 9 or Harold will make its way across Mexico, and a piece of its remnants may actually find its way into the monsoon flow in New Mexico and Arizona, which would bring some beneficial rain to those areas that mostly missed out on Hilary’s rainfall this past weekend. Rare is the tropical system that is mostly a net positive, but this one may very well be just that. We’ll keep an eye on rain totals tomorrow to make sure things stay under control.