In brief: Expect another mild day today before decent rain chances return Wednesday through the end of the work week. These are likely to be garden-variety showers rather than anything too intense or organized. The weekend looks warmer and sunnier, and after that the story will become one of increasingly hot temperatures.
Tuesday
Today will see rather mild conditions. Expect highs, generally, in the mid-80s. Skies will be partly sunny for much of the day, with relatively light south-southeasterly winds. A few scattered to isolated showers will be possible, but most of the region should remain dry. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, likely dropping only into the low 70s.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Friday. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
The latter half of the work week will turn more unsettled, as a series of disturbances pass overhead. At this point I can’t pinpoint which of these three days will have the best rain chances, but daily odds are likely on the order of 30 to 50 percent. We are not looking at anything too crazy, with accumulations of 1 inch or less likely for most of the region.
Skies each day will bring a mix of clouds and sunshine, although clouds are likely to be more the norm during the morning, with a better chance of some sun breaking through during the afternoon hours. Highs will generally slot into the mid-80s, with warm and humid nights. Winds will be from the southeast, generally, with some occasionally gusty conditions.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks sunnier and warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s. Rain chances should slacken this weekend as high pressure begins to take hold, but I can’t rule out a few stray showers. That will have implications for our weather next week.
Here comes the heat. (Weather Bell)
Next week
And those implications, as you might guess, are such that we’ll see warm if not hot conditions. As high pressure builds we are likely to see our first 90-degree readings of the year by Tuesday or so of next week. Lows will only drop into the mid-70s. High pressure should also shut down rain chances for most of next week as well. Summer, one might say, is coming…
In brief: We discuss heavy rainfall north of Houston, and lesser accumulations in Houston. After this morning we’ll see a reprieve from showers, but starting Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll see decent chances for the remainder of the week. The weekend should see clearing skies and warmer temperatures, so the early beach outlook is favorable.
The boundary that produced significant rainfall overnight is exiting the area, but it has done its damage in terms of heavy rainfall to the north of Houston. Two areas, one from College Station to Madisonville, and another northeast of Huntsville, recorded 10 inches of rainfall during the last 24 hours. Some rivers and bayous in this area are likely to reach a moderate flood stage over the next day or so.
Rainfall totals during the last 24 hours north of Houston. (NOAA)
Closer to Houston, the high-water mark came near Baytown and Mont Belvieu, with a few areas recording 5 to 7 inches. Rainfall amounts were widely variable, as some areas of just west of Houston picked up less than half an inch. But all in all it was a wet night. Too wet for some areas, with ongoing flooding occurring north of Houston, but still some much-needed rain for most locations. The remainder of spring should be nice and green in our region.
Monday
The line of storms has moved well to the east of Houston this morning, but we’re seeing some lingering showers, and these could continue for coastal areas through the morning hours. Later today we’ll see clearing skies, and this is likely to be our best chance for guaranteed sunshine this week, at least until the weekend. One welcome change this morning is much lighter winds, which will blow today from the east-southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Highs will reach into the mid-80s, with a few locations popping into the upper-80s depending on sunshine. Rain chances remain low this evening and overnight, with temperatures dropping to around 70 degrees in Houston.
Tuesday and Wednesday
The overall pattern remains unsettled this week, with the absence of a strong high pressure system. As a result we’ll see continued decent rain chances, on the order of 30 percent daily. I don’t expect anything too organized, and for the most part these should be scattered, garden-variety showers. Highs both days will be in the low- to mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm, in the low 70s.
Rain accumulation forecast for later this week. I’m a bit concerned about rain totals for areas near College Station and Huntsville later this week. (Weather Bell)
Thursday and Friday
We’ll see a continued partly to mostly cloudy pattern to end the work week, but rain chances will inch up a bit. Again, I’m not expecting a deluge, but daily rain chances will likely be on the order of 40 to 50 percent. Accumulations should be greatest north of Houston. Look for highs in the mid-80s, depending on how much sunshine breaks through during the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will pick up a bit toward the end of the week, with some gusts of 20 or 25 mph possible.
Saturday and Sunday
Rain chances should diminish some this weekend, with a corresponding increase in sunshine. We’ll still see some clouds, but there probably will be more blue skies, and there appears to be only a slight chance of rain at this point. Look for highs in the 80s, perhaps upper 80s, with plenty of humidity to spare. All in all, a good pool or beach weekend for early May.
Next week looks rather warm for Texas, in early May. (Pivotal Weather)
Next week
Could we see our first temperatures in the 90s next week? Quite possibly. The first full week of May looks fairly sunny, and fairly warm. We could see the onset of summer lite in Houston if current trends hold.
In brief: The good news is that the worst of the wind is over. We will still see strongish south-southeasterly winds today, but the gusts will be lower than on Saturday. And winds will certainly be much calmer on Monday. However, before that the region faces a decent chance of storms, including severe thunderstorms, particularly during the overnight hours.
At present there is a line of storms essentially along the Interstate 35 corridor. This system will move eastward today, but it will do so in fits and starts. And truth be told there is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of these storms due to a capping inversion, and how long it takes to break. (A capping inversion prevents warm air at the surface from rising, an essential element in the development of thunderstorms).
Severe weather outlook for Sunday and Sunday night. (NOAA)
My best guess for what happens is that the greater Houston area sees scattered showers during the daytime today, with a few isolated thunderstorms. Nothing too impactful. Highs will reach the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Beginning later this afternoon locations such as College Station and Conroe will see a better chance of thunderstorms. During the late evening hours, which is to say probably a couple of hours before midnight, a larger mass of showers will develop to the north of Houston and then sag southward toward the coast, and eastward toward Beaumont. They’re likely to exit the Houston area by sunrise on Monday.
We’ll see the usual threats with these storms: heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and the potential for a few tornadoes. The threat for severe weather is greater for inland areas, where the capping inversion looks weaker, than it is the coast. But all of the area will have the chance to see some thunderstorms later tonight. In terms of rainfall, I expect totals to vary widely. Some areas may pick up as much as 3 inches or more, but most of the area probably receives 0.5 to 1.5 inch. A few coastal locations may remain dry. There’s big boom-bust energy tonight.
In brief: Houston is beginning the first of four days of warm and windy weather, with Saturday looking especially gusty. Rain chances start to increase on Sunday afternoon, with much of the region in line for a decent soaking to start next week. This post also briefly touches on the looming onset of an active hurricane season, which begins in a little more than a month.
A few notes on the tropics
The National Hurricane Center issued its first “special tropical weather outlook” of the year on Wednesday, concerning a low pressure system far out in the Atlantic Ocean. This system has virtually no chance of becoming even a subtropical depression, but it is a sign of things to come. We are just a little more than five weeks away from the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, but it would not surprise me to see a May storm this year given the warmth in the Atlantic tropics.
Wind shear is likely to prevent the swirl of clouds in the center of this satellite image from developing into a tropical system, but it’s a sign of things to come. (NOAA)
Another fairly influential group, at the University of Pennsylvania, issued its tropical forecast this week. The researchers predict a blockbuster season, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This seems preposterously high, but typically the Pennsylvania forecast predictions are reasonably accurate, and typically conservative relative to overall activity. It’s another reason for concern. Speaking of the busy forthcoming season, Matt and I want to thank Houston City Councilwoman Abbie Kamin for the shoutout at City Council on Wednesday. Finally, this is a tax-free weekend for purchasing hurricane supplies in Texas. Details here.
Thursday
We’ll begin to see stronger southerly winds today as pressure gradients tighten in response to lower pressures over the central United States. This will help to create a persistent southerly flow over the region through the weekend, and peaking on Saturday. Today, winds will blow from the southeast at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Skies should be mostly cloudy, with highs reaching the low 80s for most locations. Winds will continue overnight, with lows only dropping into the low 70s.
Friday
Another mostly cloudy and windy day. Highs might be a degree or two warmer than Thursday, with wind gusts possibly reaching 35 mph. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday afternoon and early evening, but I think these will be fairly scattered due to a capping inversion. For now I’d peg rain chances at perhaps 10 to 30 percent. Friday night will be warm again.
Saturday
The first half of the weekend should see the strongest winds of the week, with south-southeasterly gusts up to 40 mph possible from the south. We should also see at least partly sunny skies, allowing highs to reach the mid-80s, and possibly the upper-80s for some locations. We covered the Texas Bike MS 150 in depth in yesterday’s post, and the forecast remains similar. If you’re participating in that, or the Ironman event in The Woodlands, be prepared for warm, humid weather and very strong winds from mid-morning through Saturday evening.
Forecast for sustained winds at 7 pm on Saturday. Gusts will be higher. (Weather Bell)
Sunday
Another warm and windy day, although gusts should be a bit lower, perhaps only reaching 30 mph from the south-southeast. Look for highs generally in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies giving way later to clouds. Beginning Sunday afternoon in the Houston area, in response to an upper-level system, expect to see rain chances increase across the area. Chances on Sunday will be greatest to the northwest of Houston, bust most of the region will probably see a smattering of rain on Sunday afternoon, evening, or overnight.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Tuesday. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Monday and Tuesday will see a healthy chance of rain showers, although the details remain uncertain about amounts. I’m hopeful that much of Houston will pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches, which would be welcome given our drying soils this week. For the most part we can expect highs in the mid-80s to upper-80s later next week, with lows around 70 degrees. Humidity looks high all week. There could be a fair amount of sunshine. We’ll see.
