Eric Berger

Good morning. We may be noticing it less because the temperatures are cooler, but a significant chunk of the Houston region remains mired in a severe drought. Moreover, parts of Fort Bend County are in an extreme drought. And just a little but farther, to the east in places like Beaumont, an exceptional drought continues to rage. Fortunately some relief is on the way this week, as the passage of a cool front on Thursday and Friday should bring a solid amount of rain with it—although frustratingly the totals are likely to be on the lesser end in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area.

Monday

Before the front arrives we’re going to see warm and humid days, but nothing too excessive. Highs today will reach the low 80s with partly sunny skies. The air will be humid, but not oppressively so. Winds will be light, out of the south, but there may be a few gusts this afternoon. Clouds will build this evening, and temperatures are likely to only drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These days are likely to be more or less the same as Monday. Highs for most of the area will reach the 82 to 85-degree range. This is warm for early November, but still several degrees below record highs. Nights remain mild, only dropping into the upper 60s.

Thursday

By Thursday we’ll be anticipating the passage of a cool front from west to east. However, most of the day Thursday should again be warm and fairly humid, with mostly cloudy skies and highs likely reaching the low 80s again. By Thursday afternoon rain showers ahead of the front should reach the College Station area, and push into Houston during the overnight hours.

Friday

As of now, the best chance for widespread showers should come on Friday morning. There is not great agreement in the global models at this point, so I could see a scenario where much of Houston receives 0.5 to 1.5 inches, and another in which most of the area picks up 2 to 4 inches. This will ultimately depend on the evolution of the front as it nears Houston, and whether it slows down for a bit. In any case, expect a cloudy day Friday, with highs in the 60s. Lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

Veteran’s Day, on Saturday, should be a partly to mostly cloudy affair. I still have questions about temperatures and the potential for lingering rainfall, but we can probably expect a day with highs in the 60s. Rain showers will remain possible on Saturday on Sunday, although chances will be far better closer to the coast than for areas inland of Interstate 10. Sunday will be similar, with highs in the 60s and perhaps a 30 percent chance of (mostly) light rainfall.

Next week

Most of next week should see highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the 50s. Skies are likely to be partly sunny, with low but non-negligible rain chances. We’ll see a warming trend heading into next weekend, and then after that? Possibly another front. We’ll see.

El Niño is strengthening

Over at The Eyewall, Matt has written a good post to summarize the strengthening of El Niño as we get closer to winter. It’s worth checking out for the details. The bottom line for Texas is that this probably will lead to a wetter and cooler winter, with the potential for stormier weather. We’ll see.

I hope it’s not just me. My backyard is a carpet of acorns, and they just keep falling. There are so many it is painful to walk with bare feet. With such an abundance our younger dog started to eat them—which we tried to stop, but it’s difficult when dogs like to go outside, and this good boy loves to run and play and chase squirrels—and he got really sick because of it. This experience, no doubt, will provide him additional incentive when chasing the squirrels who inhabit our backyard, and are no doubt enjoying a bumper crop of fodder.

This is a mast year for acorns, of course. Scientists don’t precisely understand why oak trees, every two to five years, produce an abundance of acorns. There are some theories, one of the most prominent of which is that a springtime drought is good for pollination. And if you go back to when the oak trees were pollinating this year in early March, much of Houston had not seen much rain for a few weeks. So things were pretty dry. But we don’t know for sure. Most likely it is part of the oak natural cycle to ensure that new trees will grow.

There are also a lot of non-scientific theories that suggest mast years portend a hard winter ahead. But I’d slot those into the category of old wives’ tales, not that I have anything against old wives! So I’m not sure this mast year has much to tell us about the upcoming winter. The only forecast I’m reasonably confident in is that we’ll see a bumper crop of squirrels next spring.

Thursday

As expected, temperatures this morning are quite cold. Much of Houston has dropped into the mid- or upper-30s. We’re going to get close to our record low for today, 34 degrees set in 1991, but probably will remain a couple of degrees above this temperature. In any case lows this morning are about 20 degrees below normal. It’s also the turning point for the current cold spell, and marks the beginning of a return to warmer conditions. With sunny skies we’re going to see high temperatures reach the upper 60s today, with light easterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer for most locations.

Friday

The warming trend continues as high pressure fully shifts to the east, allowing for the onshore flow to resume. After temperatures start out at about 50 degrees on Friday morning, they’ll rise into the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warm, sunny, and mild. Highs on both days will be about 80 degrees. By Sunday night, overnight temperatures will only be dropping into the mid-60s, so most of fall’s chill will be gone. Dewpoints will also be creeping up so it will feel humid, but not Houston-humid, if you know what I mean. And unless you just moved here in the last week, you probably do. Rain chances are about 10 percent near the coast, and closer to zero percent further inland.

Next week

Most of next week looks warm, with highs generally in the mid-80s, or possibly a tick higher on some days. Lows are going to increase to the upper 60s, and humidity will continue to rise a bit. Rain chances increase toward the end of next week in association with what probably will be our next front. But I don’t have much confidence in the timing or strength of said front. So if you like cooler and drier air, my advice is to spend some quality time outside today and tomorrow. Just, you know, don’t let your dog feast upon the abundant buffet of acorn delights.

Good morning. If you’re enjoying the colder weather, the good news is that we’ve got a couple of more cool and dry days on tap. If you’re a fan of warmer and more humid conditions, the good news is that we’ll transition back into the mid-80s by early next week. If you’re hoping for some more rain, I’m afraid I’ve only got bad news today.

Most immediately, with the forecast, we’ve got a very chilly night on tap. A light freeze will be possible for far inland locations, such as College Station and areas north of Conroe.

Wednesday

The gusty winds are gone, finally. In their place we’ll see generally light winds today from the north, transitioning to come from the northeast tonight. Skies will be sunny, with highs near or just above 60 degrees. With light winds and clear skies, temperatures will cool efficiently after the Sun goes down. Lows will drop into the 30s for much of the Houston metro area, away from the coast and urban core of the city. Areas such as Katy and The Woodlands may drop all the way down to the mid-30s. So yeah, chilly.

Thursday

As high pressure at the surface shifts eastward, winds will follow. Look for light easterly winds during the daytime, with highs in the upper 60s and sunny skies. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions in outlying areas.

Friday

A trend of slowly warming temperatures, and rising humidity will continue on Friday. Look for highs in the mid-70s, with sunny skies and lows Friday night down around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Skies look to be mostly sunny this weekend. Although our atmosphere will be moistening up, right now the upper-level dynamics do not favor the development of rain showers. Look for highs of around 80 degrees on both days, with lows only falling into the mid-60s by Sunday night. In short, this should be a really mild weekend, suitable for most types of outdoor activities. Enjoy!

Next week

We’re going to see a continued warming trend next week, with highs most days in the mid-80s with a decent (but not oppressive, I think) amount of humidity. Some sort of front appears to be in the cards by around Friday-ish of next week, but I don’t have much confidence in the details. That’s probably when our next decent chance of rain will come as well. So expect mostly sunny weather until then.

Good morning. It’s chilly outside, with temperatures generally in the 40s across the region. Today will see the return of some sunshine this afternoon, but a persistently northerly breeze will keep a chill in the air. Kids will want at least a light jacket while trick-or-treating. We’re still headed toward the coldest night of the week on Wednesday into Thursday morning, when lows could drop into the 30s for inland areas. Then we’ll warm back up for awhile.

Tuesday

The last of the light rain showers will sweep out of Houston this morning, but clouds will probably linger until noon, or a bit after. As a result, temperatures will be slow to warm, before finally pushing up to around 60 degrees late this afternoon. The emerging sunshine will help. But with a breezy day, and gusts up to 20 mph, it’s still going to feel chilly. Temperatures will drop pretty quickly into the low- to mid-50s after the sun sets, with lows dropping to around 40 degrees in Houston overnight.

Wednesday

This will be a sunny day, with a high temperature of about 60 degrees. However, winds from the north will be lighter, so it likely won’t feel as chilly outside. As winds slacken even further on Wednesday night, we’ll see ideal cooling conditions to go along with the very dry air, so temperatures could be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday night. A light freeze is possible for far inland areas.

Thursday

The lessening winds will continue to shift from the north to northeast to east as high pressure moves away. As a result we’ll see high temperatures climb into the upper 60s on Thursday, to go along with sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will be appreciably warmer, only dropping into the low 50s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The warming trend continues into the weekend, with continued mostly sunny skies, and low to non-existent rain chances. Look for highs in the mid-70s on Friday, around 80 degrees on Saturday, and likely the low 80s on Sunday. Lows will drop into the 50s on Friday morning, but we’re likely to stay around 60 degrees or a bit warmer by the weekend. Some humidity returns, but it does not look oppressive.

Next week

The early part of next week looks fairly warm, with highs in the mid-80s. After this, the pattern may favor the passage of a fairly weak front in the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame, but I don’t have too much confidence in this outcome yet. Some readers have understandably asked about rainfall, as we’ve been fairly dry. Unfortunately, I don’t see particularly great chances for meaningful rainfall for at least the next 10 days.