Eric Berger

Good morning. After an almost chilly day on Wednesday, when temperatures remained in the low- to mid-60s, Houston will warm up again for awhile. Some things we’re watching for are rather warm temperatures this weekend and into next week, and the potential for widespread and potentially heavy rainfall late next week. Whether this spills into Easter Sunday is something we’ll have to wait and see.

Thursday

Scattered, light showers will be possible later today as moisture streams onshore from the Gulf of Mexico. Overall chances are probably 20 or 30 percent. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Winds will be fairly strong, at 10 to 15 mph from the east, with higher gusts. Lows tonight won’t drop far, perhaps only into the lower 70s, with the warmer flow. Some additional light showers are possible overnight.

Friday

Skies will again be partly to mostly cloudy on Friday, and as a warmer southerly flow persists we should see temperatures increase into the mid-80s. This will be another windy day, with gusts perhaps as high as 30 mph. Rain chances will be fairly low, only about 10 percent. A cold front will approach the area later on Friday, and this may drive the development of some thunderstorms well to the north of our area. I don’t expect much, if any, activity in Houston. It will be another warm night for the region.

Saturday

Drier air from the front will start pushing into the region after midnight, and the front itself should reach the coast by mid-morning on Saturday. This will be one of those touch-and-go fronts in the sense that it will drop down to the coast, stall, and then probably start lifting back on Saturday afternoon or evening. So how much dry air you see Saturday will depend on how far inland you live. In any case, I expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s with the dry air warming quickly. Lows on Saturday night may drop into the mid-60s.

Sunday

Humidity returns, and clouds along with it. This should limit highs to the lower 80s, with a decent chance of some light rain during the afternoon or evening hours. Accumulations will be light.

Next week

The first half of next week looks warm, with high temperatures in the upper 80s. It will not surprise me if some inland areas record their first 90-degree days of the year. Fun, I know, for early April. After that we turn into a period of more uncertainty, but it looks like a front will move into the area and serve as a focal point for a few days of April showers. As a result we could see a few days in the 70s, with some decent rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. For now that is fairly speculative, however.

Easter weekend

What about the holiday weekend? I think it’s more likely than not that we’ll see some sort of shower activity lingering into Saturday, and possibly Sunday. The only thing that seems particularly clear at this point is that, whereas the first half of next week is going to be rather warm, the weekend should be cooler. So we’re not looking at a 90-degree Easter Sunday. The question is really how much cooler it will be, and whether rainfall will be a factor.

This week NOAA said a three-year La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean is finally over. While neutral conditions are likely to exist for the next few months, forecasters now expect a fairly strong El Niño to develop later this spring or early summer. Typically, for Texas, this means a warmer than normal summer, and a cooler and wetter than normal winter.

Perhaps most critically for the Houston region, El Niño tends to sap some of the strength of the Atlantic hurricane season by increasing wind shear levels. The effect is moderate, but notable. During El Niño years there are an average of about five hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. During La Niña years there are closer to an average of seven hurricanes. So the dice are more loaded toward impacts in La Niña years.

Wednesday

Some light showers have developed north of Houston this morning, extending as far southward as The Woodlands, in response to a passing disturbance in the upper atmosphere. This will continue to produce a chance of (very) light rain throughout most of today. Otherwise, we are going to see partly sunny skies with highs of around 70 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the northeast, before shifting to become more eastward tonight. Lows will drop into the low 60s.

Thursday

Skies will be mostly cloudy on Thursday, and winds will turn southeasterly. This flow off the Gulf of Mexico will pick up significantly, with gusts up to 25 or 30 mph. Highs will reach the mid-70s and humidity will return as well with perhaps a 20 percent chance of light rain. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the low 70s.

Friday

This will be a warm and humid day, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid-80s. Winds will be significant, gusting to 35 or even 40 mph out of the south. It will be another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

So here’s the deal. A weak-ish cold front is going to approach our area early on Saturday morning. This system is going to bring storms well to the north of the Houston metro area, but if we see any precipitation in the Houston metro area it likely will be light. The bigger question is how the front will affect temperatures and dewpoints. My sense is that the front will essentially push down all the way to the coastline by Saturday mid-morning and then start pulling back northward by Saturday evening. So how much dry air you see will depend on how far inland you live. In any case, the front should pull northward of even areas like Conroe by Sunday.

In terms of temperatures, I’ll ballpark low-80s for Saturday, with partly sunny skies, and increasing clouds for Sunday with a high of around 80 degrees. As moisture levels return we will probably see a decent chance of showers later on Sunday, perhaps 30 or 40 percent during the afternoon hours.

Next week

Most of next week looks warm, and humid, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Perhaps some kind of front will arrive by Wednesday and Thursday to offer us a temporary reprieve and bump up rain chances. But my overall confidence in that happening is far from high. In tomorrow’s forecast I’ll offer an early guess about the forecast for Easter Sunday in Houston.

Good morning. A cold front has moved through the Houston region overnight, and if you live along and south of Interstate 10 you probably felt it as lots of lightning came along for the ride. Areas further inland saw less fireworks and little to no rainfall. We’ll now see a couple of days with some drier air before a warmer and more humid pattern returns.

Tuesday

A few lingering showers will clear out this morning, and we should see partly sunny skies by this afternoon. Winds will be fairly brisk, out of the north at 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Highs today will reach the mid-70s. Temperatures tonight should be the coolest of the week, dropping into the 50s for most areas except along the coast.

Wednesday

This day will start out with some clouds, but skies should turn mostly sunny during the afternoon with highs in the low 70s. Winds will veer back to come from the Gulf of Mexico, that this should nudge overnight temperatures up slightly, into the low 60s for Houston. A few, scattered showers are possible later on Wednesday as this onshore flow returns.

Thursday

This will be a breezy, humid day with mostly cloudy skies as high temperatures push up to near 80 degrees. Winds could gust as high as 25 or 30 mph out of the south. There will again be a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers. Lows Thursday night will only drop low 70s.

Friday

Expect another breezy and humid day, this time with highs in the low 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

The details for this weekend’s forecast remain a bit iffy, but generally you can expect a (very) weak front to move into the area on Saturday morning, perhaps with a few scattered showers. The front won’t provide too much oomph, so we’re probably looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies both weekend days, with highs in the 80s, and lows in the upper 60s.

Next week

Frankly, most of next week looks warm, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Some areas may well touch, dare I say it, 90 degrees? It looks like some sort of front will work its way into the area by Thursday of Friday next week, which should finally cool us down and bring another splash of rainfall. That’s far enough in the future to be fairly fuzzy, however.

Good morning. Houston will see a healthy chance of storms during the overnight hours, setting up a couple of cooler days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then we’re going to warm up heading into the weekend. The forecast by then starts to become hazy, as it’s unclear whether a front will push all the way into the metro area.

Monday

The major story this morning is dense fog, which may linger until 9 or even 10 a.m. before air temperatures warm. Beyond the fog, skies will be mostly cloudy today with highs in the low 80s. Like on Sunday, dewpoints will be sticky all day, with light easterly winds. There will be a few isolated showers today, but overall rain chances are only about 10 percent. Conditions will be warm again tonight, with lows dropping into the mid-60s.

A front will approach the area tonight, and bring with it a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should occur between midnight and 8 a.m. My sense is that these showers will be fairly hit or miss in that some parts of the region may see a few tenths of an inch of rain, whereas a few parts of town pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. In any case, these totals should not produce any notable flooding, and the worst of this activity should be over by sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday

After the showers move on, we may see a bit of sunshine on Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-70s, with northerly winds gusting at 25 mph or even a bit higher. These northerly winds will herald an influx of drier air that will be with us through Wednesday. Tuesday night should be the coldest of the week, with lows dropping into the 50s for most of the region.

Wednesday

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy on Wednesday, with highs only reaching about 70 degrees. With the upper atmosphere remaining moderately disturbed it is possible that we see a 10 to 20 percent chance of light rain. Lows on Wednesday night will be a bit warmer, in the low 60s, as a southerly flow returns.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week looks warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and mostly cloudy skies. These will be fairly sticky days, with warm nights. Rain chances won’t be zero, but they’ll be quite low, on the order of maybe 10 percent each day.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend is, shall we say, up in the air. At issue is whether a weak front has enough oomph to push all the way through Houston. My solution to this uncertainty is to wave my hands and say temperatures will be in the upper 70s or lower 80s, with lows in the 60s, and a slight chance of rain. If you have outdoor plans, at this point, things looks fine. But give me a day or two to firm up the forecast, please.