Eric Berger

The outlook for heavy rainfall on Thanksgiving, overnight, and into Friday continues to worsen for the greater Houston area. As we get closer to the onset of rains on Thursday, high resolution models are indicating that the interaction of a warm front—you’ll definitely notice the warmer and muggier air tomorrow morning—and a cut-off low pressure system will produce a lot of rain. To account for this, we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area, which means we are likely to see some street flooding. For more information about our flood scale, see here. The alert is in effect from Thursday morning through Friday evening.

Timing

So what can you expect tomorrow? The pre-dawn hours should be fairly quiet, but by around sunrise or shortly thereafter we can probably expect storms to form to the southwest of Houston, near Matagorda Bay, and move inland toward Houston. By the mid-morning hours, I expect to see fairly widespread, heavy rainfall across much of the region, with the possible expection of areas far inland, such as Conroe or College Station. The potential for intermittent, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours.

At some point on Thursday evening the atmosphere may be fairly well “wrung out,” and need time to recover. So while things may quiet down during the overnight hours, we expect a recharged atmosphere to produce more widespread rainfall on Friday. I don’t think these showers will be as heavy as those on Thanksgiving Day, but we’ll have to see about that. Drier air should finally move into the region on Saturday morning, ending the threat of rainfall and leading to a pleasant, sunny weekend.

Accumulations

I don’t feel particularly confident in predicting how much rain will fall, but given the overall setup and fairly moist atmosphere, I think areas south of Interstate 10 could be looking at 2 to 6 inches of rainfall over both days, with 1 to 5 inches for areas further inland. It is possible that some areas will see more. This is enough to flood some streets, at least for a short time.

I hate to say it, but this really is a fluid situation, and we can probably expect additional forecast changes. For now, we want you to be weather aware tomorrow when you’re out and about celebrating the holiday. Be sure to check the radar before hitting the road, and of course do not go outside into storms where there is lightning.

We’ll have our next update no later than early Thursday morning, and will provide coverage throughout the holiday as needed.

Fundraiser

We’re in the final days of our 2023 fundraiser. So if you appreciate our efforts to stay on top of the weather, even when we’d rather be sleeping off our tryptophan highs, you can buy Space City Weather merchandise here, or donate by clicking “I’d like to make a donantion” only. Thank you!

Well, the good news is that the weather should be fine today for travel in the greater Houston region, and throughout much of Texas. The bad news is that the forecast for Thanksgiving Day, night, and into Friday is not great. The big picture is that by Thursday morning rain chances will be on the rise, and we expect to see a storm system move in during the afternoon hours. Additional showers are possible overnight, and throughout the day on Friday. Unfortunately, now it looks like conditions really won’t clear out until Friday night or Saturday morning.

Wednesday

Today should be mostly sunny—yes, really—offering a short break from our rainy pattern. These mostly clear skies will allow high temperatures to warm into the upper 60s. As winds turn to come from the southeast, you’ll notice pretty rapidly increasing humidity levels. Along with this increased atmospheric moisture, clouds will build this evening over the area. Overnight lows probably will only drop to around 60 degrees.

From Wednesday night through Friday we’re going to experience a prolonged period of high rain chances. Why, you may ask, will we see rainfall even after a cold front moves into the region on Thursday evening? The answer is that an area of low pressure system will break off from the main westerly pattern in the atmosphere. This “cutoff low” will then more or less meander over Texas for a couple of days, spurring intermittent rainfall from Thursday morning through Friday night, before moving off.

Thursday

The start of the Thanksgiving holiday will be warmish, in the 60s, with muggy air. We’re going to see at least some scattered showers during the morning hours, but there’s a chance you’ll avoid rain until the afternoon. However, after that time I expect a more organized mass of showers and thunderstorms to move into much of the region, bringing as much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. While this will be unpleasant, I don’t think it will cause any real flooding issues. There is also the potential for some more severe weather, including damaging winds, but I think heavy rainfall and lightning is the primary threat. You most definitely need a fallback plan for any outdoor activities or gatherings on Thanksgiving. Look for highs in the low 70s, dropping into the 50s overnight as cooler air from the front moves in.

Friday

Eventually, drier air should move into the mid-levels of the atmosphere and bring an end to rain chances. But it now looks like that will not happen until Friday evening. So much of the day on Friday will be subject to (mostly) light or moderate rain showers. Chances are probably 60 or 70 percent. Highs will be in the low 60s. Rain chances drop Friday night, although not entirely, as lows sink into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks solidly pleasant, with ample sunny skies. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 60s, and rising to around 70 degrees on Sunday.

Next week

We will see a warming trend next week, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s, or possibly even 80 degrees, by Tuesday. After that it seems likely that another front will push into the region. Some showers may be possible with this front, but the forecast is pretty fuzzy.

Fundraiser

You still have time to help out Space City Weather! We are in the midst of our annual three-week fundraiser, selling merchandise and accepting donations to fund everything we do here. To support our efforts, you can buy Space City Weather merchandise here, or donate by clicking “I’d like to make a donantion” only. Thank you!

Good morning, Houston. I can’t say that I expected to wake up early this morning to the pitter patter of rainfall, but here we are. After a dry summer and early fall November has proven to be far wetter than anticipated. It has rained more than half of the days this month in Houston, although this has mostly been lighter rain. This wet pattern will persist through Thanksgiving, which I am afraid put a damper on outdoor activities—unless your family’s holiday rituals involve cyclocross or rugby.

With that said, it is difficult to complain too much about the rain. This month’s soaking rains are helping lift the upper Texas coast out of a drought that began this summer. Since we will experience another La Niña winter—which tends to bring drier and warmer conditions here—I was concerned about this drought persisting into next spring, or summer. A wet month won’t completely extinguish the region’s drought, but it is certainly very helpful.

Tuesday

An atmospheric disturbance just offshore has hung around longer than expected this morning, somewhat like an unwanted house guest. This system is helping to produce ongoing light showers across much of the region south of Interstate 10. These showers may persist through the morning hours before finally dissipating. Inland areas may see a bit of sunshine this afternoon, but the coast is likely to remain mostly cloudy. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. With mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures tonight probably will drop to around 50 degrees.

Wednesday

This should be a fairly nice day, as November days go. We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 60s. Winds will veer to become more easterly, and this will start to increase atmospheric moisture levels, setting the stage for increasing rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday.

Thursday

It looks like I’ll be able to eat turkey for Thanksgiving, rather than crow. That’s because, in our initial Thanksgiving outlook eight days ago, I wrote, “So my early forecast for Turkey Day calls for somewhat warmer, and possibly wetter weather.” This forecast is going to verify. Thanksgiving is going to feel fairly muggy for November, with highs in the low 70s and dewpoints to match. The timing for rainfall on Thanksgiving remains a bit uncertain, but there looks to be a healthy chance of light to moderate showers throughout much of the morning, afternoon, and evening. We can’t exclude some heavier rain showers, and these are most likely north of Interstate 10. All told, most of the area will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals.

Friday

The rains will end at some point on Friday, but it’s difficult to say whether that will be midnight, mid-morning, or early afternoon—something to consider if Black Friday shopping is in your plans. As a front moves through, we will see some clearing skies, eventually. Expect Friday morning to start out in the 50s, with a high somehwere in the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

This looks like a fine, late fall weekend with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s. Lows on Saturday and Sunday mornings will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland, and slightly warmer ones along the coast. Rain chances are near zero.

Next week

We should see a warming trend for the first half of next week, with highs getting back up to around 70 degrees, with moderate nights. After Thanksgiving, the rest of November looks fairly dry.

Fundraiser

We’re in the final week of our fundraiser, the one time each year you have the opportunity to support what we do. Matt and I have lots of plans for 2023, so your help now allows us to put those plans into action. To support our efforts, you can buy Space City Weather merchandise here, or donate by clicking “I’d like to make a donantion” only. Thank you!

Ten days ago a cold front blew into Houston, and since that time the region has experienced weather that is typical for the dead of winter, not late fall. The city’s warmest temperature during that timespan has been just 61 degrees, with lows in the 30s and 40s. Houston will face another chilly day or two before we start to warm up in time for Thanksgiving. Unfortunately that comes with a price: We’re increasingly confident of rainfall on the holiday.

Fundraiser

This is the final week of our annual fundraiser, and I want to genuinely thank everyone who has contributed so far. Matt and I work really, really hard on this site. Sure, some days there is almost nothing to talk about or forecast. But during inclement weather this is a full-time, full-tilt job. We plan our vacations around storms and weather—my family never vacations during August, for example. Our commitment to you is simple: We’ll be here when you need us. We’ll tell you when you need to worry about the weather, and we’ll tell you when you don’t. Our only goal is to be as accurate and transparent as possible. To support our efforts, you can buy Space City Weather merchandise here, or donate by clicking “I’d like to make a donantion” only.

Monday

If you like cold and dreary weather, then you’re having a banner November, and will enjoy more of the same today. Additional rainfall is inbound from the southwest this morning, as an upper level disturbance draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. While this will make for a wet and gray day, I don’t think accumulations will be much over a quarter of an inch for most areas. Given the cold air and leaden skies, some areas may struggle to reach 50 degrees for a high temperature. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s.

Tuesday

High pressure will try to work its way southward on Tuesday, and this may help bring some breaks in the clouds. Some areas north of Interstate 10 might even see partly sunny skies during the afternoon hours. Look for highs of around 60 degrees, or perhaps a touch warmer where the sun breaks through for awhile. Lows Tuesday night will drop to around 50 degrees with cloudy skies.

Wednesday

Winds start to shift to come from the southeast, and this will herald the return of a warmer onshore flow. Look for highs in the mid-60s for much of Houston, with partly sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night won’t drop too far into the 50s.

Thanksgiving Day

Alas, the forecast for the holiday is still a bit of a turkey, given ongoing uncertainty in the timing of the region’s next cold front. However the broad picture is pretty clear. The holiday should start out fairly warm in the morning, at around 60 degrees. Highs on Thanksgiving Day will push up to around 70 degrees. We are pretty confident that it’s going to rain at most locations in Houston on Thursday. The uncertainty comes in regard to timing and amounts, but generally expect better chances for areas inland of Highway 59/US 69 during the morning hours, and higher chances closer to the coast during the afternoon. As for accumulations, we might see anyhere from a few tenths of an inch to 1 to 2 inches. So yeah, if you’re having a big family gathering on the holiday, have a contingency for rain. Lows Thursday night generally should drop into the 50s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

In contrast to Thanksgiving, the rest of the holiday weekend looks fine and fall-like. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies from Friday through Sunday, with highs starting out in the low 60s on Friday and rising to around 70 by Sunday. Overnight lows should generally be in the 40s or lower 50s. Make your outdoor plans with confidence—and maybe a sweater for the evenings.