Eric Berger

Good morning! It is remarkably warmer this morning across Texas and Louisiana, in some cases more than 30 degrees above lows from just 24 hours earlier. Aside from this dramatic warm-up, the big story for the next couple of days is our rain chances later today and tonight, and then mild conditions for the New Year’s holiday.

Thursday

Starting with lows around 60 degrees, we’ll warm up into the upper 70s today with mostly cloudy skies. With ample moisture in the atmosphere and an inbound disturbance, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms today, perhaps around 50 percent. But the greater chance of storms will come late this afternoon, evening, and during the overnight hours. These storms will be hit or miss, I think, with some areas picking up just 0.25 and inch of rain, but nearby areas seeing 2 or even 3 inches. Areas that see the heaviest rainfall may experience minor street flooding.

Friday

Rain chances likely end during the pre-dawn hours. A weak front will the slide into the region on Friday, so we likely will see partially clearing skies during the afternoon with highs in the low-70s. Winds will be light, shifting to come from the north. Lows on Friday night will drop into the low 50s.

New Year’s Eve

The final day of 2022 will be a fine one, with mostly sunny skies, moderately dry air, and highs in the mid-70s. Temperatures at midnight will be mild, about 60 degrees, with perhaps a few clouds in the air. Celebrate the new year outside, and safely!

New Year’s Day

The first day of 2023 will be a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and partly sunny skies. Lows on Sunday night will only drop into the upper 60s, and perhaps only briefly.

Monday

This will be a wet, and potentially stormy day ahead of another cold front. Details are to be determined, but we’re likely to see 1 to 2 inches of widespread rainfall. The question is whether all of the dynamics in the atmosphere line up to favor severe storms, and for now I think the answer is that such conditions are more likely to the northeast of Houston, rather than over the city itself. We shall see. Otherwise expect highs in the upper 70s.

Rest of next week

Most of next week will probably see highs in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and 50s. There looks to be a fair amount of sunshine as well. So overall, the first week of 2023 looks to be fairly nice. Hopefully one might be able to say that about the whole year.

Holiday lights

We’re in the final days of being able to enjoy the holiday light shows at Space Center Houston and the Houston Botanic Garden. Here’s a review we wrote of these attractions earlier this year. You can find more information about each there, along with a discount code to save you $5 on each ticket.

Although it remains chilly this morning across the Houston metro area, with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s, by this afternoon the last 10 to 12 days of frigid weather will be but a memory. Looking ahead, it probably will be at least a week before we see lows in the 40s again, and there is no likelihood of a return to the 30s any time soon.

Wednesday

Winds have shifted to come from the south, and they’ll pick up in intensity later today, gusting as high as 25 mph. This influx of warmer and more moist air will allow for a mostly sunny and warmer day, with highs in the mid-70s. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the mid-60s.

Thursday and Thursday night

Building upon this moist air, an upper level disturbance will move into the region, bringing a chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. I don’t have great confidence in how this will all play out, to be honest. I expect mostly cloudy skies on Thursday, with highs in the mid-70s. There will be a chance of scattered showers during the day time, but it looks like the more organized activity, if it develops, will do so overnight. There is a slight risk of heavy rainfall for the region, especially for areas east of Interstate 45, and for places like Beaumont and Port Arthur. Although we cannot rule out some isolated street flooding where such heavy rain falls, I don’t expect much of that. Note that these storms could be hit or miss, with some areas picking up less than 0.25 of an inch—particularly the western half of the metro area—and other areas 2 or more inches.

Friday

This should be a mostly cloudy day, with a high in the mid-70s. At some point a weak front will push into the metro area, and this will help to drop temperatures into the mid-50s on Friday night.

New Year’s Eve

This looks like a fine, mostly sunny day with highs in the mid-70s. The front will knock some of the humid air away. Conditions on New Year’s Eve look pleasant, with temperatures around 60 degrees by midnight, and at least partially clear skies. Rain is not a concern for any holiday celebrations. The start of the new year will be, dare I say, mild?

New Year’s Day

The first day of 2023 will be warm, with highs in the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees, and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

The combination of more moist air and the next front will produce widespread showers on Monday, which will be another warm day. After that, look for pleasant conditions, with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs of around 70 degrees, and lows of around 50, for much of the week.

Good morning. After about 10 days of much colder weather, Houston will soon return to warmer conditions to end the year 2022. Today, in fact, will be the last chilly day of the year, after which highs in the 70s will persist into early 2023. We also will have two periods of rainfall during the coming week, but I think we’ll manage to squeeze out some fair conditions for the New Year’s holiday in between.

Tuesday

Lows have fallen to freezing, or near freezing, along and north of Interstate 10 this morning, but areas closer to the coast are generally in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Skies will be sunny today, with highs in the mid-50s. The most important change will come later today, as high pressure slides eastward, and our winds take a more southerly turn. This will mark a definitive end to the Great Christmas Cooldown of 2022. Lows tonight will drop into the low 40s in Houston.

Wednesday

Skies will be mostly sunny on Wednesday, with highs in the low 70s. Winds will be notable, out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. By Wednesday night we’ll see low temperatures falling just into the 60s, with a slight possibility of some fog.

Thursday and Friday

The end of this week looks wet, as increasing moisture levels from the southerly flow combine with an atmospheric disturbance to produce a healthy chance of rain. These should be mostly cloudy days, with highs in the low 70s. Rain chances look best on Thursday and Thursday night, but a chance will persist through the day on Friday. Overall accumulations look greater for the eastern half of Houston, but I expect much of the region to see at least 1 inch of rain, with some areas seeing 2 or more inches.

Saturday and Sunday

Fortunately, it looks like a weak front will clear things out for the holiday weekend. Right now I’m penciling in highs in the low to-mid-70s on New Year’s Eve, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and lows dropping into the upper 50s to 60 degrees by around midnight. Rain chances are pretty low, which is good news for revelers. Skies on New Year’s Day will likely be partly sunny, with highs in the mid-70s. All in all, the turn into 2023 looks fairly mild.

Next week

The weak front won’t last long, and at some point I expect clouds to return on New Year’s Day. This return of moisture will set the stage for another wet period—most likely on Monday January 2, but some uncertainty remains. This could easily bring another 1 to 3 inches of rain to the region before a front brings some moderately cooler and drier air into the region.

Good morning. Much of Houston has once again sunk into the upper teens this morning, as a hard freeze grips the region. However, this will be the worst of it, with Houston seeing one more night in the 20s heading into Christmas morning. Next week looks considerably warmer.

Christmas Eve

Skies will be mostly sunny today, and if you live south of Interstate 10, highs may eventually climb to 40 degrees or higher. Further inland you’ll probably remain in the upper 30s. A noticeable, and welcome, change today will be much reduced winds out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the mid-20s in the city of Houston, with colder conditions further inland. In terms of electricity, the state power grid seems to be holding steady. We expect that to continue.

Christmas Day

Don’t tell my niece, but she’s getting a trampoline for Christmas. While it will still be cold on Sunday, with highs in the mid-40s it will certainly feel warmer than recent days. So if you dress warmly, with the sunshine and just a light wind, conditions should be fine for outdoor activities such as trampoline jumping after the early morning chill burns away. Overnight lows on Sunday night will get down to about freezing in Houston, with colder conditions inland, and more moderate ones along the coast.

Monday and Tuesday

A bit of uncertainty remains about whether a reinforcing front pushes into Houston on Monday night, or washes out, but I don’t think it matters in terms of precipitation. Both of these should be mostly sunny days, probably with highs slotting into the 50s. Monday nights lows may drop into the 30s, but Tuesday night will be warmer.

Wednesday

This has the look of a pleasant, partly sunny day with highs in the 70s.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern turns more unsettled by the end of the week as high pressure shifts eastward, and we’re opened up to a warmer, more humid flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring a notable increase in rain chances. Accordingly I expect both of these days to be mostly cloudy, with at least a 50 percent chance of rain, and highs in the 70s.

New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day

The forecast is fairly muddled by this point, but my general expectation is that some kind of weak front is going to push into the region on New Year’s Eve, or thereabouts. This probably will bring an end to the rain showers before festivities start later on New Year’s Eve, but at this point out it’s too far away to say that with any confidence whatsoever. The front may sap some of the humidity, as well. My bet for highs on New Year’s Day would be about 70 degrees, but again, it’s a long ways off.

Best wishes for a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday season

This will be our last post until Tuesday, December 27. It has been a long week due to the cold weather, and with relatively calm conditions ahead we’re going to take a couple of days off to celebrate the holiday weekend. So for Matt, Maria, Lee, Dwight, Hussain and everyone else who contributes here at Space City Weather, let me wish you joy on Christmas Day and during the rest of this holiday season. Your trust is the greatest gift we can receive.