Eric Berger

Good morning. I’m jumping in with a quick weekend update due to the ongoing wet pattern. We don’t have any concerns about significant, widespread flooding right now. However, these storms will bear a lot of moisture, and some will produce high rainfall rates that can quickly lead to flash flooding in Houston’s streets. This is a concern for today, and for the next week or so.

In terms of the overall picture, after a torrid start to summer Houston is in the midst of a stark pattern change due to an unsettled atmosphere that is producing lots of clouds, cooler daytime temperatures, and widespread showers. How about this for a stark contrast? Friday’s high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport was just 77 degrees (a record low maximum temperature for August 19). The region has not recorded a daily high that low since April 19. This pattern is likely to hold through most of next week, although daytime highs will not be that cool.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re going to see rainfall on both weekend days across much of the region, probably with 60 or 70 percent coverage, and the best chances coming between about 10 am and 6 pm CT on both days with daytime heating. Accumulations will be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for most, but a handful of locations could see 2, 3 or even more inches of rain beneath the heaviest storms that will have high rainfall rates. Otherwise, expect high temperatures generally in the upper 80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Next week

The pattern, if anything, turns wetter during the coming week for Houston and much of Texas as high pressure is gone and the state sees a series of atmospheric disturbances pass through. The best chance of rain will come for parts of north and east Texas, where upwards of 10 inches is possible through Friday. This is almost certainly going to cause flooding issues for parts of the Dallas metro area over to places like Texarkana. Closer to home, I think much of the area will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rain from Monday through Friday of next week. Highs most days will be in the mid- to upper-80s. These days will be partly to mostly cloudy, with limited chances for sunshine until Friday most likely.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has designated a tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico “Potential Tropical Cyclone Four,” and it should move into the northern coast of Mexico, and South Texas, during the next 24 hours. Whether it organizes sufficiently before then to become a tropical depression or storm is largely moot, as it is principally a rainmaker, likely to bring several inches of rain to those areas. The Upper Texas coast may see some ancillary moisture from this system that will support rain on Sunday or Monday, but we don’t see any serious, direct effects.

Good morning. It has been a long, hot—so very, very hot—summer in Houston. June and July were the warmest on record for the city, and so far August has run slightly above normal. But that’s now about to change. The arrival of a weak front later today will kick off a significant pattern change that will bring temperatures generally in the low 90s, with a decent chance of rain, for at least the next week. I would go so far as to say that, after today, it is possible if not probable that the metro area may not record another 100-degree day in 2022. The rest of August really does look quite reasonable, and then we’ll have to see about September.

Thursday

The watchword for today is uncertainty. We have boundaries between air masses all over the place, plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with, and a weak front that will be advancing southward later today. We can’t have complete confidence in the specifics about how this will play out, but here’s what we can say more generally about the forecast. Today will be another hot one, with much of the region at least reaching the upper 90s this afternoon. I think the radar will remain pretty quiet until 2 or 3 pm, after which time we should start to see showers and thunderstorms blossoming across the region. The preferred area will be north of Interstate 10, but areas closer to the coast probably won’t miss out entirely. Storms should become more widespread late this afternoon and evening, before weakening overnight.

What should your expectations be? As is usual with thunderstorms, there probably will be plenty of lightning, and some stronger winds in the stronger thunderstorms. Much of the region will pick up 0.25 to 2 inches of rain through tonight, although lower accumulations are possible right along the coast. Street flooding is possible within the stronger thunderstorms.

Friday

Rain chances Friday will depend to some extent on what happens Thursday, but a healthy chance of showers remains. I don’t think storms will match the intensity of Thursday’s, but we’ll have to see. Look for highs in the low 90s with partly sunny skies for much of the area. If you were expecting the front to bring cooler nighttime temperatures, you should temper your expectations. We’re not going to see much of a change in humidity or lows. It’s mid-August, y’all, and summertime fronts just don’t pack that kind of punch this far south.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same for this weekend, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 90s. Rain chances each day will be about 50 percent, but for the most part these should be showers that pass through fairly quickly (see caveat, in the Tropics section below).

Next week

Every time we’ve seen a bit of a reprieve this summer from deep heat, high pressure has pretty quickly built back over the region. However, we don’t expect that to happen this time. Instead, the upper Texas coast will fall between a ridge to our west, and low pressure to our east. As a result we should see a string of partly to mostly cloudy days with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Each day should have a healthy chance of rain in the 30 to 50 percent range, but it’s way too early to have much confidence in any details. This pattern should hold for awhile. Pretty great for late August, right?

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center continues to track the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming in the Southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. Chances remain fairly low for this system to become a tropical depression or storm. As for local effects, this disturbance could increase our region’s rain chances on Sunday and Monday, but it’s just too early to tell. For now, I’m leaning toward the idea that it won’t have much of an impact.

Good morning. Houston faces two more hot days before a weak front arrives to provide some relief, mostly in the form of cloudier skies, which will bring down temperatures, as well as producing scattered to widespread showers. After Thursday we should be done with high temperatures in the triple digits for awhile, which sounds great to me.

If we may, Matt and I would also like to take a moment this morning to thank all of the teachers in the greater Houston area. Kids have, or soon will, return to schools across the region and I know teachers have already been hard at work preparing for classes. You all have difficult jobs, particularly in dealing with parents and administrators, and we certainly appreciate your efforts to teach our children. We’re only sorry that we couldn’t give you better weather this summer.

Wednesday

Today’s going to be hot as the region bakes beneath a ridge of high pressure. Expect highs to range from the upper 90s to low 100s, with sunny skies. Some scattered showers are possible for northern areas, such as Montgomery County, but the rest of us will be dry. Winds will be light, out of the southwest, at around 5 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy overnight, with lows briefly dropping below 80 degrees in the city.

Thursday

This is going to be another hot day, with highs likely comparable to Wednesday for Houston, especially the southern half of the region. The big story of the day will be the weak front, which will drift southward during the day. At this point I anticipate showers and thunderstorms developing north of Houston during the late morning hours and pushing down into the metro area during the afternoon hours. These storms may reach the coast by around sunset, give or take a couple of hours. Showers and thunderstorms remain likely overnight, with area-wide rain chances at about 60 to 70 percent. These storms could produce briefly heavy rainfall, and damaging winds.

Friday

Rain chances on Friday will be governed to some degree by the extent to which storms on Thursday work over the atmosphere. If we get fairly decent rains on Thursday the atmosphere may be fairly stable, leading to more scattered showers on Friday. Fewer rains on Thursday probably would lead to more widespread showers on Friday. Anyway, look for highs to peak in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies. Overall rain accumulations should be greater this week for inland areas, with lesser totals near the coast.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with daily rain chances of about 50 percent. I don’t anticipate any washouts, but passing showers could briefly disrupt your outdoor activities. Highs will generally be in the low 90s, but I think some far inland areas could sneak into the mid- or upper 90s. Right now there are just no indications that the remainder of August will be insanely hot, nor even abnormally so.

We’re also looking toward the tropics at the area of low pressure Matt wrote about on Tuesday, but our overall thinking remains the same in terms of the overall low potential for a tropical storm to develop. This system may bring enough moisture to elevate our rain chances along the Upper Texas coast on Sunday and the early part of next week, and it may not. Regardless, we appear to be looking at a pattern of slightly cooler than normal weather, with highs mostly in the low 90s for next week. It’s difficult to beat that in late August, my friends.

The forecast for Houston is pretty straightforward: Houston will see a few more very hot days before a weak front arrives on Thursday to increase cloud cover and rain chances, and bring down temperatures a bit. Then, we are likely to see near-normal to below-normal temperatures into at least the middle of next week. Finally, the tropics may be waking up.

Tuesday

Here comes the heat. With high pressure continuing to build over the region we will see highs in the mid- to upper-90s across much of the Houston region today, with inland areas such as College Station and Huntsville likely hitting triple digits. Rain chances are, at best, about 10 percent with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the south or southeast, at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday

The heat will peak on these days, with 100-degree temperatures possible across much of the region, except for the immediate coast. Sunny skies will prevail for much of that time, but things will begin to change later on Thursday as a weak front approaches the region. This is not a classical fall cold front, mind you, when there is a distinct wind shift followed by an influx of colder and drier air. We really don’t get such fronts in August, as it’s just too early. Rather, this front will mostly perturb the atmosphere, allowing for rising air and the formation of clouds. This will, in turn, help increase rain chances and start to hold down daily highs. But because the front is unlikely to push into Houston until Thursday afternoon or so, that day is still probably going to bring triple-digit-hot for most of the area. Rain chances start to tick up Thursday afternoon or evening, likely in the form of scattered showers.

Friday

This day will probably have the best chance of rain this week, above 50 percent for the region. The additional cloud cover should hold high temperatures in the low-90s for much of the area.

Saturday and Sunday

The aforementioned front is basically going to move down to the coast on Thursday, get hung up, and eventually dissipate. Nevertheless its remains should continue to help produce partly cloudy skies and decent rain chances on the order of 30 to 50 percent through the weekend. Accumulations across much of the area will vary from 0.25 to 2.0 inches, with the highest accumulations likely to the east of Houston. Highs will likely remain in the low 90s.

Next week

Our weather next week will be guided, to some extent, by tropical moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. Matt will have more in our weekly tropics update later this morning, but there is potential for a tropical wave currently in the Caribbean Sea to move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico toward the end of this week. There, it could start to develop into a tropical system. This is not something I think we probably need to be directly concerned about, but the system could influence our weather early next week with increased moisture and the potential for more rain showers. The bottom line is that we’re now in the middle of August, and watching the tropics closely. More from Matt, soon.