Eric Berger

Good morning. The next two days will be warm and muggy before a line of storms moves into the region on Friday evening, and during the overnight hours. This will usher in a brief period of cooler and drier weather before the onshore flow again returns us to a warmer pattern for much of next week. Cooler fall weather seems likely for later in November.

Thursday

The region will see patchy fog and a few scattered showers this morning before partly sunny skies later today. With light southeast winds, we’ll see plenty of humidity, and high temperatures should push into the low 80s. Temperatures this evening and overnight will be rather warm for November, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s for much of the region.

Astros forecast

The Houston Astros bounced back in a big way on Wednesday night, no-hitting the Phillies and bringing the World Series to two games to two. Game five is set for tonight, at 7:03pm CT, in Philadelphia. The weather should, again, be ideal for fall ball in the northeast. Game time temperatures will be about 60 degrees, falling into the mid-50s over the course of the game. Winds will be very light, and skies clear. Let’s go Astros!

Friday

This day will start out a lot like Thursday in Houston, although the afternoon will probably see a few more clouds, and even more moist air. Look for highs in the low- to mid-80s. Some light, scattered showers will be possible during the daytime, but the main event will not come until later, as a line of storms forms ahead of a cold front. Most model data suggest the front will reach the College Station area around 8 to 10 pm, push into Houston around midnight, and move off the coast a couple of hours later. These storms may be briefly intense, but as they will be moving fairly quickly from northwest to southeast, most areas should only pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Damaging winds and hail are possible, with the highest threat of severe weather north of Interstate 10.

Saturday

This will be a fine, fall-like day. Look for mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-70s, and moderate northerly winds. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the 50s, although how deep they go into the 50s will be dependent on how far you live from the coast.

Sunday

The aforementioned front will move offshore, but not all that far. So by Sunday I expect it will be pushing back inland, and this will start to bring humidity levels back up. Look for highs in the upper 70s on Sunday, with mostly sunny skies. Lows by Sunday night will not drop much below 70 degrees.

Next week

Most of next week will be dominated by high pressure, which will mean sunny and warm days in the low 80s, and nights in the 60s. The air will be fairly muggy. Although it’s pretty far down the line, in terms of timing, most of the model guidance is pointing toward a stronger front in about eight or nine days that will usher in a longer period of cooler and drier weather. This would suit for mid-November, to be sure.

Tuesday’s showers may have been gloomy, but the 0.25 to 1 inch of rain most of the region received came in a slow-but-steady dose ensuring that the majority did not run off, but rather soaked into Houston’s dry soils. This is not the kind of rain that busts a drought, but as days get shorter and cooler, such precipitation does go a long way toward helping our areas trees and other vegetation. We’ll have another chance of rain on Friday evening and overnight, but these showers will be shorter and sharper, and therefore more prone to runoff.

Wednesday

In the wake of Tuesday’s showers, Houston will see a warming trend for the next three days ahead of the next front. After some patchy fog this morning, we’ll see mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s. In response to falling pressures in the central United States, winds will turn more southeasterly later today at about 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Astros forecast

The Houston Astros are down a game in the World Series, but far from out. We can’t forecast what their bats will do in the series tonight, but weather conditions should be ideal for the Fall Classic. Game time temperatures in Philadelphia will be around 60 degrees, falling into the mid-50s. Skies will be clear, with light winds. Good luck, Astros!

Thursday

The southerly flow amps up a bit on Thursday across Houston, with winds perhaps gusting to 15 or 20 mph. This will push up temperatures and humidity levels. Look for highs around 80 degrees, or just above, with partly to mostly sunny skies. This will feel fairly sticky for early November. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees on Thursday night. Rain chances are low, but non-zero.

Friday

If you liked Thursday’s warmth and humidity, you’ll love Friday, because it should be that little bit warmer and more humid. Look for highs in the low- to possibly mid-80s. Winds will be pronounced, out of the south, perhaps gusting to 20 or 25 mph. At some point Friday evening or, more likely, overnight, a line of showers and thunderstorms will push southward through the metro area. I expect these storms to be most pronounced north of Interstate 10, but the whole region faces at least a slim threat of severe weather. Broadly speaking, most of the area should pick up 1 inch of rain, or so, as the storms should move through fairly quickly from northwest to southeast.

Saturday

This should be a pleasant fall day, with highs in the low 70s, as drier air filters in behind the front. Expect clearing skies and a modest northerly wind. We’re going to get one chilly night out of this front, and it will be Saturday night, with lows dropping into the low 50s for much of the region.

Sunday

Winds will shift to come back onshore pretty quickly, so highs on Sunday should reach the upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Humidity levels will already be starting to rise during the daytime, and Sunday night’s lows probably won’t fall below the mid-60s. Hope you enjoyed the front!

Next week

Most of next week should see highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, however there are some early indications of a fairly strong cold front pushing into the area in about 8 or 10 days, give or take. If you’ve been wanting some colder air, this may be just the ticket. We shall see.

Tropics

We have zero concerns about Texas, but it is noteworthy that we’re seeing one last, late season flourish in the tropics. Lisa is likely to strike Belize as a Category 1 hurricane later today. It should eventually spin itself out in the Southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend as it succumbs to high wind shear. Tropical Storm Martin is probably going to become a hurricane before it exits into the northern Atlantic Ocean. And finally there’s an area of storminess near Hispaniola that may bring some winds and rains to Florida in about a week.

Good morning. We have now made it through October, and thanks to a few fairly strong cold fronts Houston ended with an average temperature of 70.0 degrees. This is 1.8 degrees below normal for the region. Looking ahead to November, NOAA is predicting that we will likely see warmer than normal conditions this month. That seems like a reasonable forecast to me, as looking ahead to the next two weeks I don’t see much evidence for a strong influx of colder air. Things could always change later this month, however.

Tuesday

As expected much of the southern half of the Houston region is seeing light to moderate showers this morning as an atmospheric disturbance combines with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. These showers are strongest near the coast this morning, but some of these heavier showers may migrate inland a bit later today. Showers will be possible throughout the area into the afternoon hours before ending this evening. Accumulations of one-half inch or more are possible south of Interstate 10, with lesser amounts inland. Expect highs today near 70 degrees, with light easterly winds for the most part. Lows tonight will drop into the 60s.

Astros forecast

Due to concerns about thunderstorms popping up in the middle innings on Monday night, Game 3 of the World Series between the Astros and Phillies was canceled. There are no weather concerns tonight. Look for game time temperatures in the low 60s at 7 pm CT, and not dropping a while lot. Winds will be very light (breathe easy, Yankees fans). Skies should be clear. Let’s go Astros!

Wednesday and Thursday

Back in Houston, skies should clear out some by Wednesday morning, and I expect a pair of partly to mostly sunny days as a result. Look for highs in the upper 70s on Wednesday, and perhaps around 80 degrees on Thursday. As dewpoints rise to near 70 degrees, the air will feel fairly humid, and lows will struggle to fall much below 70 degrees.

Friday and Friday night

Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the low 80s and muggy air. It won’t be summer, but it certainly won’t be crisp outside. Look for partly sunny skies. At some point—probably after sunset Friday, and before sunrise on Saturday—it looks like a line of showers will form ahead of a modest cool front moving down into the region. It is too early to have much confidence, but this line of storms could bring some severe weather with it. We should get a better sense of this in a day or two.

Saturday

Showers associated with the front should end on Saturday morning, and in their wake we should see clearing skies and breezy northerly winds. Highs on Saturday likely will get into the mid-70s. Lows drop into the 50s.

Sunday

This looks like a mostly sunny and fine day, with highs likely in the upper 70s. The morning will start out with ample dry air, but the southerly flow will reestablish itself fairly quickly, so look for increasingly humid air by Sunday night. Lows will likely only drop into the 60s.

Next week

I would expect a couple of warmish days in the low 80s next week before some sort of additional front comes through. I don’t have any confidence in the details, however.

Good morning. The overall forecast for this week will see generally mild conditions, with a healthy chance of light showers on Tuesday, and a slow warming trend before some sort of front arrives this weekend. This is definitely fall in Houston, so get outside and enjoy the weather.

Monday

There will be few tricks for our weather today, or during trick-or-treating hours this evening. Skies will be partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s and light winds from the northeast. Temperatures will likely fall into the upper 60s after sunset, which is fairly typical for this time of year. Late tonight we may see some rain showers moving into the area from the southwest, but they should hold off until at least midnight, if not later. Lows will drop into the low 60s.

Astros forecast

We predict an Astros win tonight. Oh, you meant a weather forecast. Game time temperatures at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia this evening for Game 3 of the World Series, which starts at 7:03 pm CT, will be about 60 degrees, with light southerly winds. They won’t drop much throughout the game.

Our major concern is rainfall, with about a 50 percent chance during the evening hours. However, any rain that does fall before midnight looks to be fairly light, so it probably will be something the game can be played through. Nevertheless, forecasters will be watching closely for any stray thunderstorms.

Tuesday

Ok, back to Houston weather. An atmospheric disturbance will pass over much of Texas on Tuesday, and it will combine with increasing moisture levels to produce a healthy chance of showers over our region. Chances are best along and south of Interstate 10, where moisture levels are highest. Those areas probably have a 50 percent, or greater, chance of rain, whereas the odds are lower for inland areas. Most locations will see a tenth of an inch of rain, or two, so we’re not anticipating any serious issues. With mostly cloudy skies in place, look for highs around 70 degrees, with easterly winds. Rain chances start to fade during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The second half of the work week will see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs warming from the upper 70s on Wednesday into the low-80s by Friday. Lows will generally be in the 60s. Rain chances are essentially zero until Friday evening or overnight, when the next front approaches the region.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather to start the weekend will be determined the timing of the front, so for now the forecast is written in pencil. I’d anticipate a healthy chance of showers on Friday night and into Saturday morning, with winds becoming fairly breezy out of the northwest as the front hits. After the front moves through skies should clear out fairly quickly, so my expectation for conditions by Saturday afternoon, as of now, is partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. We’ll see. Confidence in Sunday’s forecast is higher, with temperatures in the 70s, drier air, and sunny skies. I think we’ll warm up fairly quickly after this front, but there’s probably another one on the way by the middle of next week.