Eric Berger

August is almost invariably the worst month of the year, weather-wise, in Houston. Temperatures are either blazing hot with drought-like conditions, or we see flooding due to tropical moisture. Our air is often at its muggiest during the month. And almost always we see our most sweltering days and warmest nights of the year during the eighth month of the Julian calendar, named after the Roman emperor Augustus.

But not this year! In a rarity, both June (average temperature of 86.7 degrees) and July (88.0 degrees) topped the average temperature for August this month, 85.0 degrees. This month ranks just slightly below the “normal” August temperature as measured over the last 30 years of 85.2 degrees. The average temperature is calculated by adding the daily high, and the daily low, and dividing by two.

This August has seen cooler days than normal, due to persistent cloud cover and rain-cooled air, and nights that were slightly warmer than normal. We also received enough rain to break our emerging drought, but not enough to cause significant flooding. The bottom line is that after an exceptionally hot start to the summer of 2022, August was comparatively pleasant. And that’s something I thought I would never write about the month of August, in the city of Houston.

Looking ahead to September, we will see a continuation of this wetter and cooler-than-normal weather as our rather rainy pattern continues. For now we don’t have concerns about widespread flooding, but as always we could see some streets fill up with water during intense downpours.

Thursday

The first day of September will bring partly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low 90s. Of the days during the next week, today probably has the lowest chance of rain, but I still think 40 or 50 percent of the Houston region will see showers and thunderstorms this afternoon amid daytime heating. Some of these storms could be briefly intense, with the best chances for inclement weather along and north of Interstate 10. Storms should fade as evening comes on. Winds will be light, perhaps only at 5 mph, from the east.

Friday

Friday should be similar to Thursday, albeit with a few more clouds, and rain chances of perhaps 50 to 60 percent. While we will see a weak front advancing southward toward Houston, and increasing atmospheric moisture levels, the best chances for heavy rain will not come until this weekend.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

Well, you can’t say we didn’t warn you. For awhile now, we’ve been suggesting that Labor Day Weekend in Houston will be soggy, and we’re sticking to that story. Daily rain chances on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be upwards of 80 percent, with the potential for intermittent heavy rainfall as the aforementioned boundary stalls out over the region. Look for daily highs in the 80s, with nighttime temperatures in the 70s. Skies will be mostly cloudy. Overall, I think most of the area will see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Labor Day, but of course some isolated areas probably will see more. This should not be enough precipitation to cause significant flooding problems, but given the tropical air mass this is something we’ll be monitoring for you.

Next week and beyond

Rain chances will remain elevated for much of next week, it looks like, and this should help to keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to possibly 90 degrees. There will probably be some periods when we see sunshine later next week, but it’s impossible to say when.

Now that we’re in September, we can start to realistically look for fall’s first cold that brings drier and cooler air into the region. There is nothing concrete in the forecast models, but there are hints at the possibility of such a front by around September 13 to 15. Right now I’d peg the chances of such a front actually making it at about 25 percent, but some hope is better than no hope I would say. Our first front typically comes during the second half of September.

Tropics

After nearly two months of dormancy—the tropics have seen near historic levels of low activity through August this year—things are starting to pick up with a Tropical Depression in the central Atlantic Ocean and several other systems that could develop in the coming days. The very good news is that none of these systems appear likely to threaten the United States or Gulf of Mexico during the next week or 10 days, if not further. So this is a great place to be as we get very near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Good morning. Houston will see a couple of days with slightly reduced rain chances, before the potential returns on Friday and persists through Labor Day weekend. We still don’t see any signals for anything beyond street flooding, but the holiday weekend will be marred by on-and-off showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be at-times heavy. If you have outdoor plans I hope they include easy access to shelter from such storms.

Wednesday

Conditions in the atmosphere are a bit less favorable for heavy rainfall today, but there’s still plenty of moisture to work with. Therefore while showers and thunderstorms will be somewhat scattered today, they’re still going to develop, and move generally from southeast to northwest. Areas west of Interstate 45 are slightly more favored for rain today. With partly sunny skies I think we’ll see highs this afternoon push up into the low-90s, or possibly mid-90s for areas well inland. Winds will be light, from variable directions, but mostly out of the southeast.

Thursday

This will be another day lacking ideal conditions for heavy rainfall, but we’re still expecting about 50 percent of the area to see some form of precipitation, including a few stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect partly to possibly mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday

Rain chances increase a bit during the day on Friday, and an increase in cloud cover should limit temperatures to the low-90s.

Labor Day Weekend

A weak front will nudge down into the area from the northeast on Friday night, and as this front more or less stalls over the Houston region we’ll see a period of unsettled weather this weekend. (The front is going to do nothing for our sticky humidity or warm nights, alas). Areas north of Interstate 10 will probably be little drier than the coast, but most of the metro region should see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Monday with on-and-off showers. Some areas will, of course, pick up higher amounts. The increased cloud cover and rain-cooled air should help to limit high temperatures to the 80s for most of the region.

Next week

Honestly, this unsettled pattern does not look to change a whole lot next week. We should continue to see at least partly cloudy skies, healthy rain chances, and highs in the upper 80s as we get a little deeper into September.

Tropics

There remain no threats to the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week or so, if not longer. This has been a remarkably quiet hurricane season. In fact, if there is no tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin today, this would be the first August without a named storm since 1997. That is not a complaint.

Good morning. It has rained nine of the last 11 days at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and 10 of the last 11 days at Houston’s Hobby Airport. While some of us may be getting a little tired of rainfall, I would remind you that the alternative in late August is blazing hot sunshine and temperatures near or above 100 degrees. We saw plenty of that in June and July, when record heat scorched the region. Whatever your preference is, the rainy-gray skies-cooler temperatures pattern will prevail for some time. We’re even going to get a weak front later this week to keep daytime temperatures on the lower side of things. Alas, this front will have almost no impact on nighttime temperatures or dewpoints. Hopefully, however, we will get our first real fall front within the next four weeks. Fall is not all that far away!

Tuesday

On Monday, much of the west side of the region saw significant rainfall, with two or even three inches of rain in southwest Houston and parts of Fort Bend County. After a wet few weeks our grounds are getting soggy, and less able to absorb higher rainfall amounts. The good news is that, while our region remains in a wet pattern, we’re not seeing too much of a signal for slow-moving, heavy rainfall that will dump inches at a time, and lead to significant, widespread flooding. However, we will definitely have a chance for street flooding today where heavier rains set up. That appears most likely for areas west of Interstate 45 on Wednesday, where a few spots may see 1 to 3 inches of rain, with lesser amounts for most other parts of the region. Otherwise, expect highs in the upper 80s with light southerly winds.

Wednesday

The overall pattern remains the same for Wednesday, with a few areas likely to see heavier rainfall and lesser totals for much of the rest of the region. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

The aforementioned weak front approaches the northern reaches of the metro area on Thursday, and this shift should bring some slightly drier air into the atmosphere. This may knock daily rain chances back to 40 or 50 percent for the region, and I think we can expect daily high temperatures in the low 90s for the most part with partly sunny skies.

Labor Day Weekend

Unfortunately the forecast for Labor Day weekend is not super for outdoor activities. The aforementioned front will essentially stall out over Houston, and this will support rainy conditions. Rain chances each of the three days over the long weekend will probably be on the order of 60 percent, or so, with the potential for a few areas to see downpours. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Looking ahead to next week, at this time I don’t see much changing in terms of our slightly cooler days with higher rain chances. This pattern looks locked in for awhile. Summer came in with a bang, temperature-wise, and it’s going out with a whimper.

Tropics

Matt has done a fine job of summarizing the Atlantic tropics in recent days. The bottom line remains the same: While the Atlantic basin is heating up we don’t see any near term threats to the Gulf of Mexico. That’s a fine posture to be in as we reach the end of August.

Good morning. Houston will remain in a wet, but not too wet, pattern for the next several days at the region lies between high pressure systems. Effectively this means we’ll have a healthy chance of rainfall for the foreseeable future, although perhaps only 40 to 60 percent of the region will see showers on a daily basis. We don’t have any flooding concerns as these should, for the most part, be showers of the variety that move in and then move out. Daily rain chances and partly cloudy skies should help to keep highs in the low- to mid-90s, which is near or slightly below normal for this time of year.

Friday

The boundary that sparked showers along the coast and, later, near downtown Houston on Thursday has started the process of lifting north today and is effectively dissipating. This means that while the atmosphere remains reasonably moist, there is less of a forcing function for showers. So I’d anticipate rain chances in the vicinity of 50 percent today for much of the area, but with accumulations well below 1 inch for all but a few areas beneath stronger thunderstorms. Activity will be most widespread during the afternoon hours. Highs will generally be in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies, and light winds out of the southeast.

Saturday

A similar pattern should be in place for Saturday, with hit or miss showers. Most of these will be garden-variety showers but with the moist atmosphere we simply cannot rule out a few stronger and more intense thunderstorms. Look for highs generally in the low 90s with partly sunny skies. Outdoor plans in the morning should be OK, but you’ll want to have a plan for passing storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

Sunday

If you like Saturday’s forecast, have I got a deal for you. Sunday will be much the same, with the similar threat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Some areas will get rain, some will not. Generally, areas closer to the coast and east of Houston will have better chances for more rain through the weekend. Most areas won’t pick up more than 0.5 to 1.5 inch through Sunday, however.

Next week

This pattern is more or less going to hold for much of next week, with highs generally in the low 90s. As late Augusts and early Septembers go, this is not a bad thing in my opinion. There will be healthy rain chances continuing, but again nothing threatening from a significant flooding standpoint. In the middle of next week we’ll see a front move down into Texas, and we’ll be watching to see whether it pushes up rain chances for areas north of Interstate 10 (no, we’re not going to see notably cooler weather, sorry). After that we’ll be watching the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico, as discussed below.

Tropics

At present there’s still not much going on in the tropics, but that is going to change over the next week. The principal area we’re watching is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean Sea. This will continue to move westward, and should push into the Gulf of Mexico next week. After that time it may find more favorable conditions for development; or possibly not. I’d love to tell you where it’s going to go once it gets in the Gulf, but with an undeveloped system, more than a week out, that is a fool’s errand. I still think Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana are the most likely destinations. If this does impact Texas’ weather, it would start to do so as we approach and get into Labor Day Weekend. For now, it’s certainly not something I’d lose sleep over. So why did I write a whole paragraph about it? Because you really don’t want to mess with low pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico, in early September.

Elsewhere there are more tropical waves in the Atlantic, and about to move off of Africa into the Atlantic, but none appear to present a long-range threat to the Gulf of Mexico at this time.

Have a great weekend, everyone. Matt will be with you on Monday as I’ll be in Florida for the launch of NASA’s Space Launch System rocket. I’m excited to see this big rocket fly, and weather there looks favorable.