Eric Berger

Tuesday’s high temperature at Hobby Airport reached 85 degrees, breaking the record high at the airport of 81 degrees set in 1999. The mark also tied for the second hottest day on any day December, based on records that go back more than eight decades. Prior to last year, 85 degrees would have tied for the hottest day of all time in December at the airport. However that record was pushed upward in 2021, when the mercury reached 87 degrees on December 9.

We are far from alarmist on this site, but such extreme heat for December is consistent with the background warming of climate change. During the first six days of this month, the average temperature at Hobby Airport is 9 degrees above normal. And more heat is on the way over the next week.

Wednesday

We’re seeing patches of fog near the coast this morning, which is to be expected as dewpoints match air temperatures. After the fog lifts we’ll be left with partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon, and another hot December day. With high pressure in place we can probably expect highs to push up into the low- to mid-80s again today. Along with Tuesday, this will probably be the warmest day of the week, although we’re going to have to wait until next week for some significant relief. There will also be a slight chance of very light rain this afternoon. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight may briefly drop below 70 degrees.

Thursday

Fog, again, will be a possibility. Otherwise expect highs in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies. There will be humidity and mosquitoes aplenty.

Friday

This will be another warm day, with highs likely in the low 80s and partly sunny skies. Areas south of Intestate 10 will see perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of light, misty rain. Accumulations will be nothing to write home about, however.

Saturday and Sunday

Conditions this weekend will continue to be warm and humid, although high temperatures may back off slightly into the upper 70s with partly sunny skies. A weak front will try to push southward on Saturday night, but at this point I don’t think it will get too far down into the metro area. This may produce a chance of light showers, more like a mist, later on Saturday or overnight. Lows should drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

Monday will be sticky again, but change should finally come on Tuesday or Tuesday night with the arrival of a more significant front that pushes off the coast. There may well be a line of showers and storms with this front, given the upper level pattern. By the second half of next week we should see highs perhaps only in the 50s, with lows in the 30s and 40s. Details are yet to come, but we will certainly see a return of winter-like weather by that time. If I may borrow a phrase from Monty Python, it would be, “And there was much rejoicing.”

There is not a whole lot to say about our weather for the upcoming week in <checks notes> early December. High temperatures will be around 80 degrees for much of this week and weekend. More winter-like weather is coming with a definitive pattern shift, but that probably is a week away. So until then we’ll be singing Frosty the Air Conditioner Man rather than Frosty the Snowman.

Tuesday

The overall pattern today is the one we’re going to see for awhile, which is to say high pressure offshore and lower pressures over the central United States. This will drive an onshore flow that will keep our conditions warm and fairly humid, especially for December. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees or just above in the city of Houston, with warmer conditions possible inland, especially to the west in places like Katy. Look for partly sunny skies and light southerly winds. There is about a 10 percent chance of rain. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

If anything, temperatures on Wednesday may be a degree or two warmer than Tuesday, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Rain chances are perhaps 20 percent, but anything that falls will be light and probably briefly lived. Expect another warm night.

Thursday and Friday

Welp, I had hoped for some slight relief toward the end of the week as a front pushed into Houston, but it now appears that this weak front will wash out before pushing too far into the metro area. As a result, we can probably expect a pair of warm days with highs near 80 degrees, partly to mostly sunny skies, and perhaps a 20 percent chance of rain. Areas well inland may see some slightly cooler and drier air from the front.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued warm weather, with highs likely in the upper 70s, and partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances may be slightly higher, in the vicinity of 30 percent, as another front washes out over the area. This front may bring some moderately drier air to Houston, especially away from the coast. But it’s still not going to feel anything at all like December outside.

Next week

We’re likely going to have to wait until Monday night or Tuesday for the next real front to barrel into Houston. However, when it does come, there is pretty good agreement in the global models that this front will mark the start of a pattern change for much of the United States, including Texas. The second half of December does look winter-like for our region, although it’s too early to have any confidence in details for Christmas Day.

Good morning. Temperatures are generally in the upper 60s across the Houston metro area, with nearly matching dewpoints. This is our new normal for awhile, as we are going to see substantially warmer than usual conditions for the next week, with high temperatures in the 70s to 80 degrees, and moderate nights. This anomalously warm weather will persist into the weekend, at which point a cold front should finally bring some relief.

Monday

Coastal areas are seeing patchy to dense sea fog this morning, which has reduced visibility to one-quarter mile or less for some areas. An advisory is in effect. This may persist until 8 or 9 am before lifting. Later today, skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. There’s a slight chance of some light, misty rain this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will be sticky, with lows unlikely to drop much below 70 degrees.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Our weather will continue to be dominated by a persistent southerly flow through the middle of the week. So we can expect days much like Monday, with a chance of fog, highs near 80 degrees, and a mix of clouds and sunshine. There’s a slight chance of light rain both days. Overnight lows will be around 70 degrees, with is far, far above the normal low this time of year, the upper 40s.

Thursday and Friday

It looks like a weak front will approach the area on Thursday, increasing the chance of some light rain to about 30 or 40 percent. The front should knock a bit of heat and humidity out of the forecast, but not too much. Lows may drop into the upper 50s for inland areas on Thursday night, but most of the Houston metro area will be in the 60s. Highs on Friday may be in the mid-70s, with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

The aforementioned weak front will probably move back onshore as a warm front on Saturday, bringing with it a chance of rain showers. Highs on Saturday will probably reach the upper 70s, with partly sunny skies. Another, stronger, front seems likely to push through on Sunday or Sunday evening, and there may be some additional showers with its passage. So the forecast for Sunday, at this point, calls for about a 50 percent chance of rain with highs in the 70s.

Next week

The second front should knock highs down into the 60s for much of next week, with lows perhaps in the 50s or even 40s. It will, at least, start to feel more like the holiday season. The details on how cold, and for low long, are fuzzy. But winter should make something of a comeback.

Hello, winter. It’s easy to pinpoint the moment at which the most recent front barreled into Houston. At 3:15 am on Wednesday morning it was 70 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. The dewpoint was 66 degrees—which is rather sticky for late November—which made for a relative humidity of 88 percent. Then winds started to gust out of the north at 25 to 30 mph. An hour later the temperature had dropped into the 50s, with the dewpoint in the 40s. This morning the low bottomed out in the upper 30s for Bush, and other inland areas. This is proper winter weather for Houston.

Goodbye, winter. As quickly as the front moved in on Wednesday, it will start to head for the exits today. Winds are already turning easterly and this will moderate temperatures, setting the stage for a warm weekend. It looks like we’re going to remain anomalously warm for awhile, but there is some hope on the horizon for those who like a bit of colder air with their holiday season. The overall pattern will start to favor an influx of significantly colder air in about 7 to 10 days time.

Thursday

This morning is cold, with inland areas seeing lows in the upper 30s, and much of the rest of the region in the low 40s. Skies are clear, but with those easterly winds today we’re going to see clouds start to develop. Highs across the area should reach about 60 degrees, or slightly higher. With the warmer flow, expect lows tonight to only drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland. There is a very slight chance of light rain after midnight.

Friday

This will be a warmer day, with highs in the upper 70s and mostly cloudy skies. We’ll again see a slight chance, perhaps about 20 percent, of some light, misty showers. Winds will be light, generally out of the southeast. Lows Friday night will struggle to drop below 70 degrees in Houston, and with continued light winds fog is a definite possibility on Friday night going into Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be the opposite of clear and cold. The forecast is complicated by the arrival of a weak front that may move into the Houston metro area on Saturday and then stall out. For inland areas, this may bring a bit of cooler and drier air on Saturday night. Anyway, my general expection is for a mostly cloudy day on Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s and perhaps a 30 percent chance of the aforementioned light, misty rainfall. Lows Saturday night will depend on how far you live from the coast, but I’d expect them to drop into the low- to mid-60s in Houston. Sunday will be similar to Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid- to upper-70s. We can’t entirely rule out a few scattered, light showers.

Next week

That weak front that stalled out over Houston on Saturday will move back inland as a warm front on Sunday, and that will set us up for a warm start to next week, with some partly sunny days and highs of around 80 degrees. The tea leaves become more difficult to read after this point, as it’s not clear whether a mid-week front will make it all the way to the coast. If it does not—and this is the scenario I would lean toward at this moment—then the second half of next week likely remains warmish and humid, with highs in the upper 70s. We’ll see. Although it’s a long ways off, the models do seem pretty confident in much colder air moving into Houston by around December 10, and the overall atmospheric pattern supports such a scenario. But I’m not betting the mortgage on a 10-day forecast, and I recommend you not do so, either.