Eric Berger

Good morning. The biggest weather story of the next few days is the fog we’ll see over the next couple of mornings. A front on Thursday morning will usher in some colder and drier air to end that. But we’ll see a warming trend this weekend, and most of next week looks rather toasty for January. Does that spell the end of winter? Read on to find out.

Tuesday

Widespread fog has developed this morning as low temperatures and dewpoints are both about 60 degrees. As the air temperature rises this morning, the fog will dissipate, leaving mostly sunny skies. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid-70s, with light southwesterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low-60s, and with matching dewpoints we can again expect the development of some fog.

Wednesday

This will be the warmest day of the week, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs near 80 degrees for much of the area. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Wednesday night will only see lows drop into the low- to mid-60s.

Thursday

At some point on Thursday morning, probably around sunrise, a cold front will sweep through the Houston region. My sense is that this front will be dry as it moves into Houston, although there is a slight possibility for some storms associated with the front to form north of Houston, particularly north of Highway 105 in Montgomery County. Dewpoints will plunge behind the front, so we’re going to see sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-60s, and dry air on Thursday. Winds will be notable out of the north, gusting to perhaps 25 mph. They should dial back some by Thursday night as lows drop into the low 40s.

Friday

This will be the chilliest day of the week, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees despite sunny skies. Winds will be out of the north at around 10 mph. We will see ideal conditions for cooling on Friday night, with Houston dropping to around 40 degrees, and inland areas perhaps into the upper 30s.

Saturday

After a chilly start, temperatures on Saturday will warm into the mid- to upper-60s. You may notice the onshore flow resuming, which will moderate temperatures on Saturday night, dropping only to around 50 degrees. This looks like a fine, fine day for outdoor activities.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend will be warmer. If you’re running the Houston Marathon, start line temperatures will be in the low 50s. However, there are a few things I’m concerned about as a runner. First of all, dewpoints will also be in the 50s, so the lack of appreciably dry air will be noticeable. Winds will also be picking up, gusting out of the south at 15 to 20 mph. Fortunately there’s not too much southward running in the marathon route. Temperatures will also rise pretty quickly, to about 70 degrees by noon, and mid-70s by the afternoon. Bottom line, stay properly hydrated. If you’re a slower runner like me, the second half of the marathon will be fairly warm. Lows on Sunday night will only drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

The forecast for next week is warm. We may see a few weaker fronts that will bring some slightly elevated rain chances. Overall, however, we’re looking at highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s, probably. It won’t feel like winter, however that does not mean we’re done with the cold. A good friend asked me Monday if winter was over. I replied that it is not, and indeed there are some hints in the models at a colder spell about 10 to 12 days from now. So winter? Yeah it’s probably coming back toward the end of this month.

Houston just experienced a wild weekend of weather.

On Saturday our region set record high temperatures, with 81 degrees breaking the city’s previous record by 2 degrees, and plenty of sultry humidity. Also, the mosquitoes in my backyard were some of the worst I can ever recall in the Houston region, and I lived through Tropical Storm Allison. Not something I expected to see in January.

The storms on Saturday night were, frankly, more intense than expected. They brought heavy rains—while most of Houston saw 1 to 2 inches, a few pockets of the metro area saw as much as 5 inches—along with very active lightning and hail. There was even a funnel cloud that prompted tornado warnings.

And then things cleared out on Sunday morning. By the afternoon conditions were some of the nicest we will see all year. If you were outside yesterday afternoon, you know. Highs reached about 70 degrees, with sunny skies, dry air, and light northerly winds.

The good news is that we’ve got more pleasant weather on the way for this week.

Monday

Lows have bottomed out near 50 degrees this morning, and while there are some clouds I expect mostly sunny conditions later today. Accordingly, high temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-60s with light easterly winds. Rain chances are about 10 percent. Low temperatures on Monday night will be a few degrees warmer, perhaps dropping into the low 50s for much of the metro area.

Tuesday

As winds turn southerly, look for a partly sunny day on Tuesday with highs in the low 70s and increasing humidity levels. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will only drop into the low 60s, with slightly cooler condition further inland.

Wednesday

This will be the warmest day of the week, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s with possibly a few readings of 80 degrees around the city. Wednesday night will be warm, with some scattered showers possible late Wednesday night ahead of the next front.

Thursday

The aforementioned front arrives Thursday morning, and it does not look like there will be a line of storms with this one. However, after the front’s passage we will see brisk northerly winds, and as a result the region will be colder for a few days in its wake. Look for sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s on Thursday, with temperatures dropping into the 40s Thursday night.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Friday and Saturday will be clear and chilly, with highs in the mid-60s. Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday morning, possibly reaching the upper 30s for inland areas, with most of Houston around 40 degrees or a touch warmer.

If you’re running the Houston Marathon on Sunday morning, the onshore flow will probably have returned. So while start line temperatures may be in the vicinity of 50 degrees, the area will likely warm into the low 70s during the afternoon. Some uncertainty remains this far out, of course, but I feel reasonably confident in warming conditions, as well as very low to non-existent rain chances.

Next week

It looks like the next front will arrive some time on Monday, or so, and this will bring the region’s next real chance of rainfall. The overall details are fuzzy, but I’d guess that most of next week brings highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Wednesday was an A+ weather day in Houston, and Mother Nature is going to get high marks again today as high pressure holds sway over our region. The forecast turns rainy by this weekend, with a healthy dose of clouds and rain chances through Monday before sunnier weather returns next week. Temperatures will remain fairly mild for the foreseeable future.

Thursday

With high pressure still in place, we’ll see sunny skies today with highs of around 70 degrees across the metro area. However this pattern starts to change later this afternoon or evening, as winds shift from the northwest to southeast. Due to this more southerly flow look for lows on Thursday night to be a few degrees warmer, bottoming out in the low 50s in Houston.

Friday

This will be another sunny day, but highs will climb into the mid-70s as a more pronounced southerly flow resumes. Look for fairly robust southeasterly winds, gusting to perhaps 20 mph. This will start to pump up atmospheric moisture levels. Low temperatures on Friday night will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be quite warm, with highs in the upper 70s. Local temperatures will depend on how much sunshine you see, as at least partly sunny skies are possible during the daytime. Some scattered showers will be possible during the day, but the better chances will hold off until Saturday night into Sunday, as a cold front slogs toward the area. Look for accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain for most into Sunday morning.

Sunday

For inland areas, rain chances will be fairly low after Sunday morning, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s. Some showers may linger closer to the coast however, as the front may stall just offshore. Hopefully Matt will be able to fine tune the weekend forecast a little bit in tomorrow’s post. Lows on Sunday night should drop into the mid-50s in Houston.

Next week

A second round of showers is possible on Monday as an atmospheric disturbance moves through, but I’m not expecting too much in terms of precipitation from this system. After that, much of the rest of next week looks partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s, and lows in the 50s. It looks like a stronger front may arrive by Thursday or Friday to knock overnight lows into the 40s for a bit. Rain chances look low for the weekend of the Houston Marathon to go along with cooler temperatures, but that remains subject to change this far out.

Paperback copy of Liftoff

This week the publisher of my book about the origins of SpaceX, titled Liftoff, released a paperback copy for the first time. I am happy to sign and personalize copies of this new paperback edition of Liftoff if you order a copy today from Houston-based Blue Willow Bookshop. You can find instructions for doing so here, if you are interested. Thanks!

Temperatures have dropped into the low 50s this morning in much of Houston, with colder conditions in outlying areas, in the wake of Tuesday’s front. Sunny and pleasant weather will prevail until this weekend, when a slow-moving front will bring widespread rainfall into the region.

Wednesday

As high pressure settles across the region, we’ll see mostly sunny weather today with high temperatures pushing up to around 70 degrees. Winds will be fairly light, out of the west or northwest, at 5 to 10 mph. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s tonight, which should be the coldest night of the week in Houston.

Thursday

This will be a similar day to Wednesday, with sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. The only change will be in wind direction, with winds shifting to come from the southeast later on Thursday or Thursday night, which will presage a warmup heading into the weekend. Lows Thursday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

Another sunny day, but it will be a little warmer with highs in the mid-70s. Humidity will also be on the rise, with a more southerly flow, but overall it will still not feel particularly sticky. Lows Friday night probably will drop to around 60 in Houston. Sea fog may start to become an issue by Friday night or Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

I think Saturday may start out with some sunshine, but with the onshore flow getting cranked up we are going to see increasing clouds and some scattered rain chances by late morning or the early afternoon hours. Highs will reach the upper 70s, or possibly even 80 degrees for areas that see some afternoon sunshine. The likelihood of rain increases Saturday night into Sunday morning as a slow-moving front slogs toward and through Houston, likely bringing 1 to 2 inches to much of the area. Sunday, as a result, will likely see mostly cloudy conditions with highs in the upper 60s, and on-and-off rain showers. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the low 50s.

Next week

Rain chances will linger into Monday morning, but after that we should see partly to mostly sunny skies for much of next week. We’ll likely be in a pattern where we see highs on the order of 70 degrees, with lows in the 50s. Before next weekend I think we’ll see a stronger front move into the area. If you’re running the Houston Marathon this year, which is on Sunday January 15th, my guess would be for lows in the 40s, and low chances for precipitation. So that’s a hopeful forecast, but one that is far from locked in at this point.