Eric Berger

It was the best of times: The start of September has continued the trend of August, with slightly cooler than normal weather for the Houston metro area. Plenty of rain, which has fallen without provoking widespread flooding, has largely extinguished the severe drought conditions that had started to encircle our area this summer. And with only about three or four weeks left in the heart of hurricane season for Texas, we still don’t see any real threats in the near future.

It was the worst of times: Fall is so close in September you can taste it, but the painful reality is that summer just isn’t over yet. Houston has a chance to see a decent cold front next week—more on that below—but fall remains over the horizon. We’ve got at least another month during which 90-degree days will be more common than not. The air has also been rather humid of late, and a distinct lack of a breeze has provided little relief from temperatures or the swarming mosquitoes.

The next line of Charles Dickens’ fine novel A Tale of Two Cities is, “it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.” As always, we’re aiming more for wisdom than foolishness on Space City Weather. You can be the judge.

Tuesday

Today should bring a continuation of what we saw over the second half of Labor Day Weekend. This means that shower activity will be largely confined to the coastal areas of the region, with the possibility for a few storms to migrate inland to about Interstate 10 this afternoon. For areas further inland, any shower activity will be pretty isolated. Accordingly we should see highs in the upper 80s for coastal areas, and lows in the lower 90s for most of the rest of Houston. Winds will be light, out of the southeast, at about 5 mph. So far this month the average wind speed in Houston has been less than 5 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Overall there is not too much to report, weather-wise, for the remainder of the week. Wednesday will probably bring the best chance of rain to the region, with coverage of about 40 percent of the area, followed by lesser rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Highs will hover around 90 degrees, or slightly above this week, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows will be in the mid-70s for most.

Saturday and Sunday

This rather sedate pattern should persist into the weekend, which probably means highs of around 90 degrees, fairly sunny skies, and rain chances of perhaps 10 to 30 percent for both days. So if you’re planning any outdoor activities you can have reasonable confidence.

Next week

Will it or won’t it? That’s the question when it comes to a potential cool front around one week from today. There is a lot of support for a decent front—think lows in the 60s, with drier air—around September 13 in the ensembles of the European model. However there is almost no signal for this front in the North American GFS model. Looking at the overall pattern, I think it supports the idea that we could see a front make it down to Houston next week, but it is no slam dunk. This forecast should become clearer in the next day or two. Should the front make it, the effect will be fairly short lived, as one would expect in mid-September.

Tropics

There’s a lot going out there, and soon-to-be Hurricane Earl is a threat to Bermuda later this week. But none of these systems appear to pose any threat to the United States or Caribbean Islands. Moreover there is nothing in the models to suggest that will change soon. Here in Texas, we probably are three or four weeks away from being in the clear when it comes to hurricanes, so fingers crossed!

August is almost invariably the worst month of the year, weather-wise, in Houston. Temperatures are either blazing hot with drought-like conditions, or we see flooding due to tropical moisture. Our air is often at its muggiest during the month. And almost always we see our most sweltering days and warmest nights of the year during the eighth month of the Julian calendar, named after the Roman emperor Augustus.

But not this year! In a rarity, both June (average temperature of 86.7 degrees) and July (88.0 degrees) topped the average temperature for August this month, 85.0 degrees. This month ranks just slightly below the “normal” August temperature as measured over the last 30 years of 85.2 degrees. The average temperature is calculated by adding the daily high, and the daily low, and dividing by two.

This August has seen cooler days than normal, due to persistent cloud cover and rain-cooled air, and nights that were slightly warmer than normal. We also received enough rain to break our emerging drought, but not enough to cause significant flooding. The bottom line is that after an exceptionally hot start to the summer of 2022, August was comparatively pleasant. And that’s something I thought I would never write about the month of August, in the city of Houston.

Looking ahead to September, we will see a continuation of this wetter and cooler-than-normal weather as our rather rainy pattern continues. For now we don’t have concerns about widespread flooding, but as always we could see some streets fill up with water during intense downpours.

Thursday

The first day of September will bring partly sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the low 90s. Of the days during the next week, today probably has the lowest chance of rain, but I still think 40 or 50 percent of the Houston region will see showers and thunderstorms this afternoon amid daytime heating. Some of these storms could be briefly intense, with the best chances for inclement weather along and north of Interstate 10. Storms should fade as evening comes on. Winds will be light, perhaps only at 5 mph, from the east.

Friday

Friday should be similar to Thursday, albeit with a few more clouds, and rain chances of perhaps 50 to 60 percent. While we will see a weak front advancing southward toward Houston, and increasing atmospheric moisture levels, the best chances for heavy rain will not come until this weekend.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

Well, you can’t say we didn’t warn you. For awhile now, we’ve been suggesting that Labor Day Weekend in Houston will be soggy, and we’re sticking to that story. Daily rain chances on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be upwards of 80 percent, with the potential for intermittent heavy rainfall as the aforementioned boundary stalls out over the region. Look for daily highs in the 80s, with nighttime temperatures in the 70s. Skies will be mostly cloudy. Overall, I think most of the area will see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Labor Day, but of course some isolated areas probably will see more. This should not be enough precipitation to cause significant flooding problems, but given the tropical air mass this is something we’ll be monitoring for you.

Next week and beyond

Rain chances will remain elevated for much of next week, it looks like, and this should help to keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to possibly 90 degrees. There will probably be some periods when we see sunshine later next week, but it’s impossible to say when.

Now that we’re in September, we can start to realistically look for fall’s first cold that brings drier and cooler air into the region. There is nothing concrete in the forecast models, but there are hints at the possibility of such a front by around September 13 to 15. Right now I’d peg the chances of such a front actually making it at about 25 percent, but some hope is better than no hope I would say. Our first front typically comes during the second half of September.

Tropics

After nearly two months of dormancy—the tropics have seen near historic levels of low activity through August this year—things are starting to pick up with a Tropical Depression in the central Atlantic Ocean and several other systems that could develop in the coming days. The very good news is that none of these systems appear likely to threaten the United States or Gulf of Mexico during the next week or 10 days, if not further. So this is a great place to be as we get very near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Good morning. Houston will see a couple of days with slightly reduced rain chances, before the potential returns on Friday and persists through Labor Day weekend. We still don’t see any signals for anything beyond street flooding, but the holiday weekend will be marred by on-and-off showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be at-times heavy. If you have outdoor plans I hope they include easy access to shelter from such storms.

Wednesday

Conditions in the atmosphere are a bit less favorable for heavy rainfall today, but there’s still plenty of moisture to work with. Therefore while showers and thunderstorms will be somewhat scattered today, they’re still going to develop, and move generally from southeast to northwest. Areas west of Interstate 45 are slightly more favored for rain today. With partly sunny skies I think we’ll see highs this afternoon push up into the low-90s, or possibly mid-90s for areas well inland. Winds will be light, from variable directions, but mostly out of the southeast.

Thursday

This will be another day lacking ideal conditions for heavy rainfall, but we’re still expecting about 50 percent of the area to see some form of precipitation, including a few stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect partly to possibly mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday

Rain chances increase a bit during the day on Friday, and an increase in cloud cover should limit temperatures to the low-90s.

Labor Day Weekend

A weak front will nudge down into the area from the northeast on Friday night, and as this front more or less stalls over the Houston region we’ll see a period of unsettled weather this weekend. (The front is going to do nothing for our sticky humidity or warm nights, alas). Areas north of Interstate 10 will probably be little drier than the coast, but most of the metro region should see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Monday with on-and-off showers. Some areas will, of course, pick up higher amounts. The increased cloud cover and rain-cooled air should help to limit high temperatures to the 80s for most of the region.

Next week

Honestly, this unsettled pattern does not look to change a whole lot next week. We should continue to see at least partly cloudy skies, healthy rain chances, and highs in the upper 80s as we get a little deeper into September.

Tropics

There remain no threats to the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next week or so, if not longer. This has been a remarkably quiet hurricane season. In fact, if there is no tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin today, this would be the first August without a named storm since 1997. That is not a complaint.

Good morning. It has rained nine of the last 11 days at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and 10 of the last 11 days at Houston’s Hobby Airport. While some of us may be getting a little tired of rainfall, I would remind you that the alternative in late August is blazing hot sunshine and temperatures near or above 100 degrees. We saw plenty of that in June and July, when record heat scorched the region. Whatever your preference is, the rainy-gray skies-cooler temperatures pattern will prevail for some time. We’re even going to get a weak front later this week to keep daytime temperatures on the lower side of things. Alas, this front will have almost no impact on nighttime temperatures or dewpoints. Hopefully, however, we will get our first real fall front within the next four weeks. Fall is not all that far away!

Tuesday

On Monday, much of the west side of the region saw significant rainfall, with two or even three inches of rain in southwest Houston and parts of Fort Bend County. After a wet few weeks our grounds are getting soggy, and less able to absorb higher rainfall amounts. The good news is that, while our region remains in a wet pattern, we’re not seeing too much of a signal for slow-moving, heavy rainfall that will dump inches at a time, and lead to significant, widespread flooding. However, we will definitely have a chance for street flooding today where heavier rains set up. That appears most likely for areas west of Interstate 45 on Wednesday, where a few spots may see 1 to 3 inches of rain, with lesser amounts for most other parts of the region. Otherwise, expect highs in the upper 80s with light southerly winds.

Wednesday

The overall pattern remains the same for Wednesday, with a few areas likely to see heavier rainfall and lesser totals for much of the rest of the region. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

The aforementioned weak front approaches the northern reaches of the metro area on Thursday, and this shift should bring some slightly drier air into the atmosphere. This may knock daily rain chances back to 40 or 50 percent for the region, and I think we can expect daily high temperatures in the low 90s for the most part with partly sunny skies.

Labor Day Weekend

Unfortunately the forecast for Labor Day weekend is not super for outdoor activities. The aforementioned front will essentially stall out over Houston, and this will support rainy conditions. Rain chances each of the three days over the long weekend will probably be on the order of 60 percent, or so, with the potential for a few areas to see downpours. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Looking ahead to next week, at this time I don’t see much changing in terms of our slightly cooler days with higher rain chances. This pattern looks locked in for awhile. Summer came in with a bang, temperature-wise, and it’s going out with a whimper.

Tropics

Matt has done a fine job of summarizing the Atlantic tropics in recent days. The bottom line remains the same: While the Atlantic basin is heating up we don’t see any near term threats to the Gulf of Mexico. That’s a fine posture to be in as we reach the end of August.