Eric Berger

Good morning. The cold front has pushed off the coast, and temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s for most of the region. Our primary concern remains the potential for rainfall to turn into wintry precipitation this evening, and during the overnight hours. Secondarily, we are worried about cold temperatures on Thursday night falling below freezing, with wind chills in the low teens. Please protect your pets, and check on neighbors.

Thursday

Today will be cold, wet, and windy, with light to moderate precipitation winding down through the morning hours. Expect high temperatures to remain at about 40 degrees or slightly higher this afternoon, with northerly winds gusting to 25 or 30 mph. Rain remains possible this afternoon, although showers should be very light. There are two main forecast questions that we’re struggling with, and they’re both important to determine impacts from later today into Friday morning. First of all, how quickly will a freezing line advance from northwest of the Houston metro area down toward the coast? And secondarily, when will the precipitation end altogether?

Most likely, the freezing line will reach western parts of the metro area, including Katy; and northern parts, including The Woodlands; sometime this afternoon or shortly after sunset. This means that travel through Houston should be fine today and likely through the evening commute unless you’re going north of Conroe or to places northwest, beyond Hempstead. For more inland parts of the state, including Austin and Dallas, there are fairly serious icing problems today. You can check highway ice conditions at the Texas Department of Transportation’s Drive Texas website.

As the freezing line moves in, it looks as though very light precipitation may still be falling this afternoon, evening, and overnight. Our primary concern is that this will leave a thin glaze of ice on elevated roads and bridges into Friday morning. Within the Houston metro area, my sense right now is that essential travel will still be possible if you go slow and use caution. However, it does not take too much freezing rain to make a mess of things. The latest models have trended a bit drier in terms of overnight precipitation, which gives me some hope that ice accumulation is not going to be a significant problem in Harris County and most of the immediate area surrounding Houston. But again we’re walking a pretty fine line here. Matt and I will update the site a couple of more times today to bring you the latest data we have on this.

It looks like overnight temperatures will drop into the mid- to upper-20s for much of the Houston area, with the coast remaining near or just above freezing. Combined with winds, this will make for extremely cold conditions out of doors, but we don’t think it will cause widespread issues with pipes. So far the state’s power grid is holding up well, with electricity capacity far exceeding demand. We think that will continue to be the case tonight and into Friday, but can offer no guarantees.

Friday

So what can we expect roadways to look like Friday morning? This will depend on precipitation overnight, and right now our expectation is that there may be a light glaze on elevated roads and bridges. There is a chance for more significant ice accumulations, but as I look at the data right now that seems unlikely. Temperatures should rise above freezing during the mid- to late-morning hours, after which the threat of any ice on the roads will quickly abate. A winter weather advisory from the National Weather Service is in effect through noon Friday. High temperatures on Friday won’t go far—perhaps only to 40 or 42 degrees—but they’ll go far enough. With partly cloudy skies we can expect another cold night, with a light freeze possible in Houston.

Saturday

The first day of the weekend will be sunny and cold, with highs in the upper 40s. Winds should finally die down some, but this in turn will yield ideal conditions for cooling overnight, so a light freeze will again be possible for much of the metro area.

Sunday

Sunny with highs in the mid-50s. Lows Sunday night should finally remain above freezing for all but some areas in Montgomery County and points north.

Next week

For the most part we should see sunny weather next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Rain chances are low for the most part. So cold, but not extremely cold.

Good afternoon. As we get closer to the arrival of a robust cold front tonight, we’re getting better data about its impacts. It now seems possible that light precipitation on Thursday or Thursday evening could transition to freezing rain in parts of the metro area as temperatures fall to freezing. We still believe this will most likely have relatively minor impacts on the region, but cannot say that with full confidence right now.

The front will arrive in western and northwestern parts of the metro area this evening, including locations such as Katy and Tomball, between 9 and 11 pm. The front will reach downtown around midnight, and the coast around 2 to 4 am. The most noticeable changes with the front will be a wind shift and rapidly dropping temperatures. While intermittent, moderate rain showers will be possible after the front, the heaviest rains should end by Thursday morning-ish.

What we’ll be watching for on Thursday is the progression of a freezing line from northwest to southeast; from College Station through Houston, and potentially all the way to the coast. The latest modeling suggests this freezing line will reach College Station by mid- to late-morning on Thursday, and areas such as Katy and The Woodlands during the afternoon or early evening hours. At this point, while the heaviest rain showers will have ended, a light band of precipitation is expected to sag through our region Thursday evening and overnight. As this rain moves through it may transition to freezing rain on Thursday night all the way down to the Highway 59/Interstate 69 corridor, if not a little further.

What does all this mean? Travel in the College Station and Huntsville region could become hazardous later on Thursday morning, with some minor ice accumulations on roadways. In the metro area of Houston, travel during the daytime and early evening should be fine. But some slight ice accumulations are possible later Thursday evening and during the overnight hours. Because roads will still carry some latent heat, the biggest threat for any ice accumulations in Houston will be on elevated bridges and overpasses. Even this ice threat should dissipate as local temperatures rise above freezing by around 9 am on Friday morning.

It still looks like air temperatures will not fall all that far below freezing in the Houston area on Thursday night. Please understand that this is not going to come close to the deep freeze Houston experienced in February 2021, so please do not be overly concerned about that. There is also some reason to believe that the state’s power grid will be able to withstand this freeze, but obviously time will tell.

As this is a fairly dynamic event, things may change, and when they do we’ll report what we know, when we know it.

A message from Reliant

With the winter weather expected this week, Reliant wants to help make sure Texans are prepared. We’re glad to be a longtime supporter of Space City Weather and its mission to keep us informed in advance of weather events headed our way.

Below are tips that can make a big impact when temperatures dip below freezing:

• Charge your devices. Make sure your cell phone, medical equipment, tablets and laptop are fully charged ahead of time.
• Have a backup. Additional power sources can keep your home powered in case of an outage.  Keep in mind winter weather can result in local outages caused by things like ice on wires or fallen tree limbs. These local outages are not related to the amount of available electricity generated and put on the grid. Texans should contact their transmission and distribution utility in the event they experience a localized outage.
• Download the Reliant Winter Prep checklist. Learn more ways to get your home and vehicle ready for dropping temperatures.

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Good morning. The overall forecast remains on track for Houston, with a strong Arctic front moving into the region tonight and setting up several days of colder weather. I still don’t things will get too extreme for Houston—much of the city probably will not see a hard freeze—but this winter storm will nonetheless have widespread effects across the state. Matt covered a lot of these issues in a post on Tuesday night.

Also, I’m not sure exactly what it means when the groundhog sees not his shadow, but rather the shadow of death, but I guess we’re about to find out. This is because Milltown Mel, a weather-predicting groundhog in New Jersey, died on the day before Groundhog Day. So, yeah.

Wednesday

Fog is draped over much of the region this morning as air temperatures, generally in the mid-50s, have fallen to the dewpoint temperature. This fog will burn off as air temperatures rise today, and we’re probably going all the way into the low 70s even though skies will be mostly cloudy. Winds will be light, from the east, at 5 to 10 mph. Some scattered, light showers will be possible this morning, and into the afternoon hours, but I think the better rain chances will come over night along with the front. Said front will arrive in northwest parts of the region by around 8 to 10 pm on Wednesday night, should reach downtown around midnight, and push down to the coast around 2 to 4 am.

Thursday

It will be a different world when you wake up Thursday morning, with air temperatures around 40 degrees, gusty northerly winds, and possibly some ongoing precipitation. The bottom line: It will be cold, windy, and possibly wet. High temperatures should hold at about 40 degrees during the daytime, and the possibility for some very light precipitation will linger throughout the daytime. What does this mean for our region? Well, it’s possible that areas northwest will see a mix of sleet and ice pellets during the daytime. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison, Washington, and Grimes counties through 6 pm. Closer to Houston, we may see some sleet or freezing in the air, but surface temperatures should be warm enough to preclude any impacts on the ground. At this time we don’t anticipate significant impacts in the city and surrounding counties.

Another big question remains how cold it will get on Thursday night. It’s looking like clouds and winds of 15 to 20 mph should help keep the extreme cold at bay, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-20s in places like Montgomery County and west Harris County, and temperatures in the upper 20s to freezing in Houston and down to the coast. These temperatures should be warm enough to preclude bursting unexposed pipes.

Friday

This will be a cold, mostly cloudy day. Highs should peak in the upper 30s to 40 degrees, but a northerly wind will make it feel colder. But at least it will be above freezing. With more clouds on Friday night, lows should drop to about their same level as Thursday night, plus or minus a degree or two.

Saturday

Sunshine, finally. Clearing skies should help temperatures rise into the upper 40s to 50 degrees, and we’ll probably all welcome the lack of a stiff northerly wind. Lows Saturday night, under clear skies, should drop to around freezing in central Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks quite nice, with highs in the mid-50s and ample sunshine. Most of the area should avoid a freeze on Sunday night.

Next week

Temperatures will be slow to warm as we head into next week, but highs should reach the low 60s by Wednesday or so, with lows in the 40s. Days should be partly to mostly sunny, with a mostly northerly flow. If you enjoy winter in Texas, be sure and get your fill.

Good morning. As anticipated, central parts of the Houston metro area were largely spared from heavy rainfall on Monday, with 1 to 2 inches falling for most locations. But nearby locations received more, especially to the southwest. Palacios, near Matagorda Bay, recorded 7.31 inches on Monday. College Station also set a daily rainfall record with 3.4 inches. With these rains behind us, our focus now turns to cold weather later this week.

Tuesday

Beyond some patchy fog this morning, Houston has few weather concerns today. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with light northeasterly winds turning southeasterly this afternoon. Highs will generally reach the upper 60s. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s for most locations, and some more fog will be possible as dewpoints match air temperatures.

Wednesday

This will be another partly to mostly cloudy day, with highs perhaps reaching 70 degrees or a tick higher. Some light, scattered showers will be possible on Wednesday afternoon, perhaps becoming a bit more widespread by around sunset. Rain chances will persist overnight as a front sweeps through, likely reaching the Houston metro area around midnight, and the coast sometime around 3 am, give or take. I think most areas probably will pick up between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Temperatures will plummet from the upper 50s before the front’s arrival down to around 40 by the time you wake up on Thursday morning.

Thursday

Rains may linger into Thursday morning, but for the most part this simply will be a cold, cloudy, and blustery day. For Houston, it’s almost certainly not going to be cold enough for any wintry precipitation. But ice could be a pretty serious problem for areas of Texas north of a line from College Station to Huntsville. Please bear that in mind if you need to travel north on Thursday or Friday. For Houston, look for daytime temperatures in the low 40s on Thursday, made to feel colder by gusty northerly winds.

Temperatures will bottom out on Thursday night, although cloud cover and mixing winds could moderate things slightly. I want to emphasize that there is a fair amount of uncertainty in temperatures for Thursday night. Under a worst-case scenario, I think areas north and west of central Houston (i.e. Katy and The Woodlands) could see lows in the low 20s, with the urban core and areas closer to the coast in the mid- to upper-20s. However, I think it equally likely that inland areas only drop into the mid- to upper 20s, with central and southern Houston remaining at around 30 degrees, perhaps only seeing a light freeze. We will try to get more certainty on this in the coming days.

These temperatures will be cold enough to threaten plants, pets, and people, but I think unexposed pipes should be OK for the most part. For Houston, temperatures during this freeze should be a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last February’s hard freeze, so we are not looking at that kind of event.

Nevertheless, much of Texas will be very cold at the end of this week. So what of the power grid? The Electric Reliability Council Of Texas recently filed a winter weatherization readiness report, and concluded, “The Texas electric grid is more prepared for winter operations than ever before.” Let us hope so.

Friday and beyond

The good news is that we’ll see some sunshine on Friday, but it will still be quite cold. Look for highs in the low 40s, and another freezing night. Expect lows to perhaps be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday look mostly sunny and chilly, with highs in the upper 40s on Saturday to upper 50s by Monday. Look for a gradual warming trend into the low 60s by Wednesday or Thursday, with nights remaining in the 30s and 40s as Houston experiences a prolonged cold spell.