Eric Berger

Good morning. I hope everyone had a safe, healthy, and happy Fourth of July. If you liked the calm and hot conditions on Monday, you’re in luck, because high pressure is more or less here to stay, and that’s the kind of weather we’re going to see for awhile. If you did not like the weather, well, I’m sorry to say the pattern is unlikely to change for at least a week or two.

Tuesday

Skies will again be mostly sunny today, with high temperatures of around 90 degrees right along the coast, to mid-90s in parts of Houston, to around 100 degrees for far inland areas. Winds will also be light, out of the south at 5 to 10 mph, for much of the day. With a persistent onshore flow there will not be much relief overnight, with lows unlikely to drop below 80 degrees for much of the metro area.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Each of these days will generally bring temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, but the difference is the ridge should back off just slightly. This will allow for a slight chance of showers each afternoon, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent. These will occur as the sea breeze migrates inland, and you should consider yourself lucky if you win the rain lottery each of these days. Nights remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

If you’re making plans for the weekend, you can reliably count on hot and sunny conditions, with highs near 100 degrees in the metro area. Prepare to sweat.

Next week

Hey Eric, when is this pattern going to change? Well, as we get deeper into July, the models suggest the next reasonable chance for widespread rain probably won’t come until the weekend after next, in the July 15 to 17 range. Because that is so far out to forecast, overall confidence in this kind of a pattern change is fairly low.

Tropics

They’re fairly quiet, and we’ll have an update from Matt a little later this morning.

After several days of cooler weather, and for some locations fairly wet conditions, high pressure has again started to assert control over our weather. There really is not a whole lot more to say other than that temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than normal for the foreseeable future with lots of sunshine. And because today is a holiday, this post will be short and (not so?) sweet.

Monday

Highs today will range from around 90 degrees along the coast, to mid-90s in the city of Houston, to near 100 degrees for far inland areas such as College Station and Conroe. Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon. Winds will generally be light, out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Aside from the lingering heat, there are zero concerns for fireworks this evening. However because of dry ground, especially north of Interstate 10 where the recent rains left less of an impact, please take care of any activities that could cause wildfires.

Tuesday

A lot like Monday, but without the fireworks.

Wednesday through Friday

Each of these days will bring highs in the mid to upper-90s in Houston, with warmer conditions further inland, and slightly less hot along the coast. It does look like atmospheric moisture levels may tick up a bit during the second half of the week, allowing for a slight 10 to 20 percent chance of a an afternoon shower along the sea breeze. But don’t get your hopes up.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Temperatures look to rise even a bit further this weekend, with 100-degree weather possible in the city itself. At this point I expect sunny weather to continue, with perhaps 10 percent daily rain chances. Quite honestly there does not seem much chance of a pattern change at least into the early to middle part of next week. Hot, hot, hot.

The good news is that the Atlantic tropics look to be quiet for a while, as the overall pattern favors sinking air over much of the basin. Please have a safe and enjoyable Fourth of July!

Good evening. This is just a quick post to say that we no longer anticipate the threat of widespread, heavy rainfall in the Houston metro area tonight and on Friday, including most of the coast. Therefore we are lifting the Stage 1 flood alert presently in place for coastal areas. This afternoon and evening, high-resolution forecast models have continued to trend eastward with the heaviest precipitation from a tropical system, away from the Houston region, and we can no longer justify such an alert.

Speaking of the tropical system, it has now moved inland into South Texas, and should turn more or less northward. We therefore expect that its heaviest rains will remain offshore for the most part, before impacting eastern Texas, including the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas, as well as southwestern Louisiana during the next 24 hours.

That is not to say that Galveston and Chambers counties won’t see rainfall. But I now anticipate that 1 to 4 inches will fall along these coastal areas, with the potential for greater totals and more significant flooding off to our east. As for the city of Houston itself, Harris County, and the rest of the metro area, we’re just not seeing a strong signal for heavy rainfall. A few areas of the city may see 1 to 2 inches of rain tonight and on Friday, but for the most part we should see considerably less. Impacts likely will be minimal.

While we have tried to be careful to emphasize the uncertainty in this forecast in recent days, and the likelihood that rains would be most prevalent along the coast, I know a lot of you were hoping to get some drought-busting rains with this tropical system. In that sense, I am sorry to say, it is likely to be a bust.

Drought 1, Houston 0.

Good afternoon. With this post we will provide an update on rainfall expected tonight and Friday, before our region dries out and starts to heat back up this weekend. The bottom line: We are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert for coastal counties through Friday. The biggest change in this afternoon update is that our area of greatest concern has shifted eastward: We now expect the heaviest rainfall from now on to be focused on Galveston Bay and points eastward.

As expected, the rainfall today has been largely focused along the coast. Whereas most of the metro area north of Interstate 10 has not seen more than a few stray drops, parts of Galveston Island have received as much as 4 inches. This trend is largely expected to continue as a tropical system moves northward, continuing to push a river of atmospheric moisture on shore. Because we expect such a wide variance in outcomes, let’s break the forecast down for two different areas: the coastal counties of Galveston, Chambers, and Orange; and everyone else, including Houston.

Galveston, Chambers, and Orange counties

Forecast modeling has zeroed in on these areas bearing the brunt of heavy rainfall, most likely from about midnight tonight and running through Friday afternoon. Locations in these counties may see between 2 and 8 inches of rainfall during that time period, and despite the dry soils the most intense rainfall rates will nonetheless quickly back up streets. (This kind of tropical moisture is capable of producing intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour.) If you live in these areas, you should definitely check the radar before getting on the road tonight and Friday. While things may be fine, there’s also a chance they might not be. The worst should be over some time on Friday afternoon.

Houston, Harris County, and other parts of the metro area

For everyone else the rain showers are likely to be far more spotty, and the impacts minimal. Expect a day on Friday to be pretty much business as usual. While we could see a few areas away from the coast pick up some significant rain accumulations, it would not surprise me to have much of the inland parts of our region stay below one-half inch of rain. This is especially true for locations inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. It just looks like the moisture is going to get shunted off too far to the east to really provide meaningful rainfall to those areas. I know, our lawns and trees could certainly use a lot more.

If needed, Matt will have an updated forecast later tonight. If not, look for a post early Friday morning to catch you up on the latest.