Eric Berger

Good morning. The upcoming forecast offers a little bit of something for everyone. There is more cold weather in store, but also some spells of warmer weather. We should also see some measurable rainfall this weekend, which would be the region’s first real precipitation since mid-December.

Tuesday

After a cold start this morning, with a few freezing spots far inland but temperatures mostly in the upper 30s and low 40s, Houston will warm nicely today under the influence of a more southerly flow. Highs will likely top out in the mid-60s, with sunny skies. Easterly winds will turn south, and generally blow at 5 to 10 mph. Skies turn partly cloudy tonight, with lows getting into the low 50s for most areas except the coast, which will be a bit warmer.

Wednesday

This will be a warmer day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. Expect another mild night with temperatures in the mid-50s.

Thursday

A fairly sharp cold front will drop into the region on Thursday morning, and while the timing remains yet uncertain it should be off the coast by or before noon. There should not be any rain with this front, and skies should remain mostly sunny on Thursday. The influx of northerly air will limit highs to the mid- to upper-60s as winds come out of the north at 10- to 15 mph. Lows on Thursday night will drop to about 40 degrees in Houston, with a light freeze possible for some far inland locations.

Friday

The cold air will be fairly short lived, as winds return from the south on Friday. Expect a pleasant day, with partly sunny skies and highs around 60 degrees. But lows on Friday night will only drop a few degrees, into the low- to mid-50s, as the southerly flow reestablishes itself.

Saturday and Sunday

This warmer pattern will hold sway this weekend, with warm days in the upper 70s, partly to mostly cloudy days, and more humidity. With moist air and low pressure in the vicinity we’ll see healthy rain chances, especially from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Accumulations should range from 0.25 to 1 inch, but there probably will be a wide variance in totals. Rain chances will be best for areas along and east of I-45. A cold front should arrive on Sunday night, some time, to return a drier and colder pattern to the region. Look for several days of highs near 60, and lows in the 40s next week.

Houston Marathon

We’re getting closer to the Houston Marathon, which takes place on Sunday, January 16. Right now it’s really quite early to have any confidence in a forecast a dozen days from now. But given the overall pattern, I think the greatest likelihood is that we see a fairly normal January day, with a temperature in the low 40s at race start, and highs in the 50s or low 60s. The air should be reasonably dry, but it’s way way way too early to have any confidence in such details. I’ll keep an eye on things, and let you know when something more concrete emerges.

Good morning, and Happy New Year! For some perspective, temperatures on Sunday afternoon peaked at 44 degrees in Houston. This was far below the minimum temperature on the the first morning of the new year, when the low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport bottomed out 75 degrees. Much of the region outside of the city’s urban core, and away from the coast, is seeing a freeze this morning. A light freeze will be possible for areas well inland again tonight, but this morning should yield our coldest weather for awhile.

It’s worth noting that the city’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport did record a freeze this morning. This marks the first freezing temperature there since February 20, 2021, the tail end of the Valentine’s Day freeze last year. During that cold spell Houston recorded a freeze seven nights in a row, with the temperature bottoming out at 13 degrees on February 16.

Monday

Skies will be sunny today, with light northerly winds. As a result highs should be able to work their way into the low- to mid-50s. Temperatures tonight should be about 5 degrees warmer than Sunday night, but still rather chilly. As the high pressure system near the surface moves eastward, we’ll begin to see winds shift to come from the southeast by Monday night, and this will begin the process of warming us up.

Tuesday

Highs will accordingly jump back into the mid-60s on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies, and winds of about 10 mph out of the south. Lows drop into the 50s late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

This should be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the mid-70s and mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints won’t be oppressive like they were in late December, but the air won’t exactly be dry, either. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s for most.

Thursday

The forecast for Thursday is highly uncertain, as it’s not clear when the next cold front will push through the area. It could be anywhere from Wednesday night through Thursday night. If it’s the former, highs on Thursday may top out in the 60s, if it’s the latter, then expect mid- to high 70s. We’ll see. This front should be dry, bringing no rain with it. Lows on Thursday night will probably drop to around 40 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

After a brief cooldown on Friday, with highs perhaps reaching about 60 degrees, a warmer pattern along with a southerly flow should return for the weekend. We’re probably looking at highs in the mid-70s, or thereabouts, on Saturday and Sunday. The days will be partly sunny, but as a low pressure system moves inland from the Gulf of Mexico there will be a decent chance of rain from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Accumulations of a few tenths of an inch of rain are possible closer to the coast, with lesser amounts inland. Another front should arrive later in the weekend, perhaps on Sunday night, to cool things off somewhat for next week.

Good morning. This will be my final post of 2021—Matt will have an update for you on New Year’s Eve of course. It has been a strange and challenging year. In terms of weather, locally, there has been good and terrible and anomalous weather. Under the “good” category I would say we’ve gone through another year without a disastrous drought, and we saw some of the nicest weather this fall on weekends that I can remember. The “terrible” category includes the extremely hard freeze and its effects in February, and Hurricane Nicholas in September, which packed a surprisingly strong punch although it could barely be classified as a Category 1 storm. Finally, the heat this December has definitely been “anomalous,” as Houston has set or tied 6 records this month, and Galveston 14, with more to come.

My wish for the new year is better weather, of course. But I’m also hopeful for other reasons. The COVID-19 pandemic is now entering its third year, and it has fractured our communities and killed our loved ones. Now, I believe that we are probably seeing a transition to it becoming an endemic disease, with less virulence, better treatments, and ultimately less transmission due to widespread immunity. Omicron is likely a harbinger of this, and hopefully will be responsible for the last major spike in hospitalizations. So while the next few weeks may be pretty terrible, I strongly believe that a brighter future awaits us. My heroes in 2021 are all of the nurses, doctors, and medical researchers who toiled to help so many, through such a difficult time.

Looking ahead, what I can say for sure, is this: A colder near-term future awaits us. Many of us will see our first freeze of the season by Monday morning, if not sooner.

Thursday

The front made it to much of the area, knocking temperatures into the 60s this morning across the area. Its effects will be short-lived, with southeast winds resuming today and highs likely to reach about 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions inland.

Friday

The final day of 2021 will be warm once again, with highs in the low 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit gusty, out of the south at about 20 mph. New Year’s Eve evening will be mild, with temperatures in the 70s, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. It will be plenty humid, but aside from that there is nothing to complain about as we bring in 2022.

New Year’s Day

The only real question is when the cold front will arrive. The models have been bouncing around a little bit, and now it appears that an initial front will push down to around Interstate 10 on Saturday afternoon, and be followed by a much stronger surge of colder and drier air on Saturday night. For most of the area, then, Saturday will see highs of around 80 degrees, and for coastal areas those warm conditions should persist through the evening. Some scattered, light showers will be possible during the day and overnight. Temperature wise, it will be a whole new world outside on Sunday morning, with sunrise temperatures likely in the 30s for nearly all of the area.

Sunday and beyond

COLD. It now looks as though highs probably won’t get out of the 40s for most of the area on Sunday, and with gusty northerly winds this will be a cold, sunny day if you need to be outside. Clear skies and lighter winds will lead to a very cold night on Sunday, with most of the Houston region away from the coast likely to see a freeze on Monday morning.

We’ll gradually warm up next week, probably reaching the 70s on Wednesday, with another cooldown Thursday. Details to come. Happy New Year, everyone!

Another day, another handful of records set for both high temperatures and warm overnight conditions. As of 6 am this morning, the temperature at Hobby Airport is 75 degrees, a staggering 30 degrees warmer than normal for late December. A weak front will approach the area and bring some drier air to inland areas tonight, but I don’t think these conditions will reach as far as Highway 59. After this front washes out we’ll see warm weather until a strong front arrives on New Year’s Day.

Wednesday

Today will see partly to mostly sunny skies, with temperatures rising into the low- to mid-80s. Winds will generally be light, out of the southwest. The aforementioned front will sag southeastward this evening, likely reaching College Station a few hours before midnight, and maybe as far as Katy and The Woodlands by around sunrise on Thursday. Otherwise, it will be another warm and muggy night.

Thursday

Inland areas behind the front may stay in the 70s on Thursday, but most of the rest of the region will be back around 80 degrees. Skies should turn partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon after a cloudy start. Thursday night will be, you guessed it, very warm.

New Year’s Eve

The final day of 2021 will see partly sunny skies and very warm temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. The evening will be mild for any festivities, with temperatures in the mid-70s and likely mostly cloudy skies. A very slight chance of light precipitation comes into the forecast after midnight.

New Year’s Day

Change is on the way in 2022. After a muggy morning, it now looks like the front will reach inland parts of Houston by Saturday morning, and likely push down to the coast by around noon or shortly thereafter. This is a little sooner than our previous forecasts. Some light rain is possible with the front, but it may well be a dry passage. Colder air moves in quickly overnight, with temperatures dropping into the 30s by Sunday morning. A freeze is likely for inland areas, although the “freeze line” will remain in flux for some time yet.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday will be cold, with a northerly wind and highs likely topping out at around 50 degrees. This will feel especially cold after the very warm December weather, and Monday night will again flirt with a freeze. We’ll gradually warm back up to the 70s by the middle of the week, but another front by Thursday or so should cool us down again toward the end of next week. Rain chances remain low throughout the period.