Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston remains on track for a decidedly cooler and wetter week, with the major question facing us being how much rain the region will receive. For now, I’d expect most locations in the Houston metro area to pick up 1 to 3 inches between now and Friday. The higher end totals, generally, will come near the coast, with lower-end accumulations for inland areas north of Interstate 10.

But there remains a lot of uncertainty as a broad area of low pressure moves westward across the Gulf of Mexico, toward the Texas coast. Given this, the region could see quite a bit more rain, or rain totals could underperform. If you’re wondering about the holiday weekend, sunnier and hotter weather should return by Saturday or Sunday, ahead of the Fourth of July.

Tuesday

The cool front that moved through on Monday and generated showers and thunderstorms for parts of the metro area has moved offshore, and that’s where the bulk of the rain will fall today. I expect inland rain chances of only about 10 to 20 percent, with slightly higher chances right along the coast. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and light northeast winds.

Wednesday

Rain chances start to tick upwards on Tuesday night into Wednesday as the aforementioned low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico starts to slowly approach the Texas coast. Still, I’d only peg rain chances at about 50 percent for the coast, with diminishing chances for inland areas on Wednesday. Again, the bulk of the rainfall should remain offshore. Look for high temperatures in the low 90s and mostly cloudy skies, with light northeasterly winds turning easterly.

Thursday and Friday

This is when the potential for heavy rainfall will peak. The key questions are where the tropical low pressure system goes, and whether it gets organized into a tropical depression. The low itself is likely bound for the south or central Texas coast. If it organizes sufficiently, this would tend to bring the heaviest bands of rainfall closer to the center of the storm, and south of Houston. If the low remains disorganized, the potential for heavy rainfall would cover much of the Texas coast, including the Houston metro region. As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. Regardless of what happens, we do expect to see at least some precipitation as the upper Texas coast will fall on the eastern, or “wetter” side of the storm. The question, again, is how much.

High temperatures will depend on the extent of rain, so look for anything from the mid-80s to 90 degrees on both days, with mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday and Sunday

For now it appears as though the low and its attendant rainfall will be largely gone by the weekend, setting up a pair of partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-90s. I’m not ready to rule out rainfall, given the uncertainty over the next couple of days, but chances are probably in the 20 percent range, especially after Saturday morning.

Next week

By the Fourth of July, on Monday, I am reasonably confident that we’ll see mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. This is fairly typical weather for early July. Such conditions should prevail for most of next week.

Tropics

Beyond the Gulf of Mexico there is a lot going on in the tropics for late June, but none of this is a direct threat to Texas. Matt will have a full rundown for you in a tropics update later today.

Good morning. Houston has been exceptionally hot and dry—in terms of rainfall, not humidity—for the last four weeks. Our weather has largely been dominated by more or less intense ridges of high pressure. This week there will be two features driving up our rain chances, and bringing temperatures more in line with the “early summer” period.

The first feature is a cool front that will move down to the coast and stall today. Then, by the middle of this week a low pressure system over the gulf of Mexico should approach the Texas coast. This will bring a fair amount of rain to coastal areas of the state, but it remains to be seen whether the bulk of that rainfall drops over the Houston metro area, or further down the coast.

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Monday

For a change, skies today will be partly to mostly cloudy, and this should hold high temperatures to the mid-90s. The front will bring scattered showers to areas primarily north of Interstate 10 later this morning and during the afternoon, with the focus shifting to the coast this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms, generally, will be more likely near the coast. I think about 40 percent of the area will see rainfall, with a few isolated areas picking up an inch or so, and most of the rest a tenth of an inch or two. Winds will be out of the west this morning, turning to the northeast after the front’s passage. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Tuesday

Skies will be partly sunny on Tuesday, with highs likely only reaching about 90 degrees. Rain chances look pretty low for inland areas, but for locations south of Interstate 10 I think there’s perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain. Light northeast winds will shift to come from the east.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

As noted in the introduction, our weather during the second half of the work week will largely be determined by the movement and strength of a low-pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. There remains only a small chance this system, presently south of Louisiana, will develop into a tropical depression, so the primary weather we’re going to see from it is rainfall. At this time Matagorda Bay seems a more likely bet for the heaviest rainfall than Galveston Bay, but this system will be bringing a lot of atmospheric moisture to the coast, so we will see.

What we can say is that Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all have the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall, and that chances of this are significantly higher if you live near south of Interstate 10, and even better the closer you live to the coast. I’d guess areas south of Interstate 10 end up seeing 1 to 4 inches of rain this week, and areas north 0.5 to 2 inches. However, this is a dynamic situation and forecasts will change. Highs will range from the mid-80s to 90 degrees depending on cloud cover and rainfall.

Saturday, Sunday, and July 4th

The weekend looks warmer and sunnier, with highs perhaps in the low- to-mid-90s and diminishing rain chances. At this point the Fourth of July holiday looks to be hot and mostly sunny, but there are no guarantees this far out.

Tropics

Beyond the weak Gulf system, there are two other tropical waves worth watching. The area in red, Invest 94L, looks to be bound for Central America. The other wave’s track is less certain, but at this time I don’t think it’s a threat to the Gulf of Mexico either. For now, therefore, our focus will remain closer to home.

We’ve been mentioning the possibility of some elevated rain chances beginning on Monday of next week, and now the forecast is coming into slightly better focus.

A surface cold front will move off the northern Gulf coast into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and once there it may find favorable conditions for some kind of development. We think it probably will remain a low pressure system, but there is a chance it could become a tropical depression or even less likely, a tropical storm.

Given the steering flow at present in the Gulf of Mexico, and retreating high pressure over Texas, this low-pressure system will most likely track westward across the Gulf. This would bring increasing rain chances to the upper Texas coast, including Houston, beginning later on Monday and through Wednesday. I must stress that at this time these rains look nothing but beneficial for our parched region.

Accumulations are nearly impossible to forecast given the uncertainty at this point, but I’d guess most of the Houston region will receive 0.5 to 3 inches of rain, with a greater likelihood of rain near the coast. By Tuesday the increasing cloud cover should also drive daily temperatures back to around 90 degrees for a couple of days. Eventually this system should move west, clearing our area by later on Wednesday or Thursday.

As ever, tropical systems are dynamic, so we’ll be watching this closely. If the situation changes, we’ll update you on Sunday. If not, look for our regular post on Monday morning.

App note

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Be brave, my friends. After an exceptionally warm June—there is no question this month will smash Houston’s previous record for hottest June ever—we are approaching the crescendo of this heat wave. The next four days will all bring the possibility of 100-degree temperatures for the metro area, with baking sunshine, before a possible reprieve early next week.

Also, we’ve been asked a lot whether the record heat this June is predictive of abnormally warm conditions for the remainder of the summer. Matt has done some research on this, and will write about it tomorrow. The answer is hopeful.

Thursday

As expected, our region saw some scattered showers on Wednesday, and that likely will be the case today, although coverage should be more isolated. The main reason for less coverage is that high pressure is building again over the region and that will impair some passing atmospheric disturbances from getting too much traction. Rain chances appear best this afternoon along, and north, of Interstate 10. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies, with highs of around 100 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

These will be three baking hot days, with high temperatures of 100 degrees, or slightly higher, for nearly all of the metro area away from the coast. Skies will be sunny, and rain chances virtually non-existent. A more southwesterly flow, instead of winds directly off the Gulf of Mexico, should help with humidity levels a bit. Even so, there are a number of outdoor activities this weekend, including Pride celebrations in downtown Houston, during the middle of the day. We really urge you to take heat and sunshine precautions during the exceptionally hot weather this weekend.

Next week

We’re not promising any miracles next week, but things should finally change. A front of sorts should push into the region on Monday, helping to open our atmosphere up to a few passing disturbances. By later Monday or Tuesday this should lead to the formation of a few more clouds, and push daily rain chances up to 30 or 40 percent. In addition, high temperatures probably will drop back into the mid-90s, if not even lower. The details on this are still fuzzy, but the end of June will probably, finally, feel like what most of June should have felt like.

Tropics awakening?

Typically, during this time of year, wind shear runs high in a central Atlantic Ocean area called the “main development region” for tropical storms and hurricanes. This is the place where low pressure systems that move off of Africa during the summer can regularly form into tropical storms during the months of August and September. I say August and September, because wind shear is usually hostile to storm formation before then. (This is also why hurricane activity peaks during August and September).

However, as we’re seeing lower wind shear now in the main development region, it is possible we may start to see these “Cape Verde” storms coming off of Africa and developing earlier this year. To that end, the National Hurricane Center is watching development of a possible tropical wave there five to seven days from now. This is something to watch, but not worry about at this time.