Eric Berger

Good morning. This will be my final post of 2021—Matt will have an update for you on New Year’s Eve of course. It has been a strange and challenging year. In terms of weather, locally, there has been good and terrible and anomalous weather. Under the “good” category I would say we’ve gone through another year without a disastrous drought, and we saw some of the nicest weather this fall on weekends that I can remember. The “terrible” category includes the extremely hard freeze and its effects in February, and Hurricane Nicholas in September, which packed a surprisingly strong punch although it could barely be classified as a Category 1 storm. Finally, the heat this December has definitely been “anomalous,” as Houston has set or tied 6 records this month, and Galveston 14, with more to come.

My wish for the new year is better weather, of course. But I’m also hopeful for other reasons. The COVID-19 pandemic is now entering its third year, and it has fractured our communities and killed our loved ones. Now, I believe that we are probably seeing a transition to it becoming an endemic disease, with less virulence, better treatments, and ultimately less transmission due to widespread immunity. Omicron is likely a harbinger of this, and hopefully will be responsible for the last major spike in hospitalizations. So while the next few weeks may be pretty terrible, I strongly believe that a brighter future awaits us. My heroes in 2021 are all of the nurses, doctors, and medical researchers who toiled to help so many, through such a difficult time.

Looking ahead, what I can say for sure, is this: A colder near-term future awaits us. Many of us will see our first freeze of the season by Monday morning, if not sooner.

Thursday

The front made it to much of the area, knocking temperatures into the 60s this morning across the area. Its effects will be short-lived, with southeast winds resuming today and highs likely to reach about 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions inland.

Friday

The final day of 2021 will be warm once again, with highs in the low 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit gusty, out of the south at about 20 mph. New Year’s Eve evening will be mild, with temperatures in the 70s, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. It will be plenty humid, but aside from that there is nothing to complain about as we bring in 2022.

New Year’s Day

The only real question is when the cold front will arrive. The models have been bouncing around a little bit, and now it appears that an initial front will push down to around Interstate 10 on Saturday afternoon, and be followed by a much stronger surge of colder and drier air on Saturday night. For most of the area, then, Saturday will see highs of around 80 degrees, and for coastal areas those warm conditions should persist through the evening. Some scattered, light showers will be possible during the day and overnight. Temperature wise, it will be a whole new world outside on Sunday morning, with sunrise temperatures likely in the 30s for nearly all of the area.

Sunday and beyond

COLD. It now looks as though highs probably won’t get out of the 40s for most of the area on Sunday, and with gusty northerly winds this will be a cold, sunny day if you need to be outside. Clear skies and lighter winds will lead to a very cold night on Sunday, with most of the Houston region away from the coast likely to see a freeze on Monday morning.

We’ll gradually warm up next week, probably reaching the 70s on Wednesday, with another cooldown Thursday. Details to come. Happy New Year, everyone!

Another day, another handful of records set for both high temperatures and warm overnight conditions. As of 6 am this morning, the temperature at Hobby Airport is 75 degrees, a staggering 30 degrees warmer than normal for late December. A weak front will approach the area and bring some drier air to inland areas tonight, but I don’t think these conditions will reach as far as Highway 59. After this front washes out we’ll see warm weather until a strong front arrives on New Year’s Day.

Wednesday

Today will see partly to mostly sunny skies, with temperatures rising into the low- to mid-80s. Winds will generally be light, out of the southwest. The aforementioned front will sag southeastward this evening, likely reaching College Station a few hours before midnight, and maybe as far as Katy and The Woodlands by around sunrise on Thursday. Otherwise, it will be another warm and muggy night.

Thursday

Inland areas behind the front may stay in the 70s on Thursday, but most of the rest of the region will be back around 80 degrees. Skies should turn partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon after a cloudy start. Thursday night will be, you guessed it, very warm.

New Year’s Eve

The final day of 2021 will see partly sunny skies and very warm temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. The evening will be mild for any festivities, with temperatures in the mid-70s and likely mostly cloudy skies. A very slight chance of light precipitation comes into the forecast after midnight.

New Year’s Day

Change is on the way in 2022. After a muggy morning, it now looks like the front will reach inland parts of Houston by Saturday morning, and likely push down to the coast by around noon or shortly thereafter. This is a little sooner than our previous forecasts. Some light rain is possible with the front, but it may well be a dry passage. Colder air moves in quickly overnight, with temperatures dropping into the 30s by Sunday morning. A freeze is likely for inland areas, although the “freeze line” will remain in flux for some time yet.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday will be cold, with a northerly wind and highs likely topping out at around 50 degrees. This will feel especially cold after the very warm December weather, and Monday night will again flirt with a freeze. We’ll gradually warm back up to the 70s by the middle of the week, but another front by Thursday or so should cool us down again toward the end of next week. Rain chances remain low throughout the period.

Good morning, all. Just a quick post today as the forecast has not changed all that much—we’ve got five warm and muggy days before a significant cooldown arrives on the first day of 2022. Speaking of winter heat, how warm has this December been? By the month’s end it will rank not just as Houston’s warmest December in more than 120 years of records, but also among the top 10 warmest Novembers.

Tuesday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with morning lows around 70 degrees rising into the low 80s this afternoon. Winds will be noticeable, out of the south, gusting up to about 20 mph. Yesterday we mentioned the possibility of some scattered, light showers for today, but now I don’t think those will materialize. Temperatures tonight will, again, be very warm for December.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

More of the same with continued partly sunny skies. The only noticeable change will be the approach of a moderate cold front from the northwest later on Wednesday, but I don’t think that will make much of a dent for areas east of Katy and south of The Woodlands. If you live in such inland areas, enjoy the briefly drier air and slightly cooler morning on Thursday. Otherwise we’re continuing to look at highs in the low 80s. Each day will carry about a 10 or 20 percent chance of very light showers or misty rainfall. If you’re going to be out and about for New Year’s Eve, the weather will cooperate, with warm temperatures in the 70s, and little to no chance of rain.

New Year’s Day

The year of our Lord 2022 will dawn warm and muggy, just as the previous year ended. Skies should be partly sunny, with highs once again in the low 80s. However at some point during the afternoon, evening, or overnight hours a strong front will sweep through. At this point the front is trending drier, so maybe it will bring just a smidgen of rain with it, and maybe not. But there will be plenty of colder and drier air.

Next week

Sunday will be cold and windy, with highs likely topping out in the 50s. Sunday night will be the coldest of the year—sorry, I couldn’t resist that—with temperatures probably dropping into the 30s for most of Houston. A freeze is possible, and perhaps even likely for at least inland areas. Then begins a slow warmup, with temperatures rebounding into the low 70s by mid-week. Another front may arrive at that point. In other words, it may feel decidedly more winter-like for awhile.

I hope everyone had a fantastic weekend celebrating Christmas and the other holidays that make this such a special time of year. I’m sorry the weather was not particularly festive.

Overall, the forecast is pretty simple. The last week of 2021 is going to be blazing hot for December—we are going to obliterate this month’s temperature record—and then our weather will turn much more winter-like at the start of next year. Read on for full details.

Monday

Light southerly winds have kept the fog mostly at bay this morning, and these winds will at times gust to 15 or 20 mph this afternoon. This is part of an overall southwesterly flow in the atmosphere that will help to keep conditions very warm this week. Highs on Monday will reach the low 80s for most locations despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances are near zero and lows Monday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday

A weak atmospheric disturbance may bring some very light showers to the region on Tuesday, although accumulations should be less than a tenth of an inch. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s. Winds will again be a bit gusty out of the south.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be three more warm and partly sunny days, with highs likely reaching the low 80s. A weak front will approach the area on Wednesday from the northwest, and this may briefly drop lows on Thursday morning into the mid-60s with some drier air for locations inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. But this front will likely be gone before you know it.

If you’re planning to be out and about on New Year’s Eve, expect temperatures in the low 70s as the clock counts down to midnight. I’d be concerned about fog, but I think there will be enough wind from the south to preclude that. Rain chances on New Year’s Eve look to be near zero.

First week of 2022

New Year’s Day should see more of the same warm weather, but sometime during the afternoon, evening, or overnight hours a strong front should arrive. Details remain sketchy, but I think at least a little bit of rain is likely with the front, if not some showers and thunderstorms. We’ll see.

What we can be more confident of is that significantly colder and drier air will follow. We’re looking at daytime temperatures in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s for a time. Conditions will be windy and cold. It even seems possible that inland areas may see the season’s first freeze by around the morning of Monday, January 3, but again it’s way too early to put any precision to such temperature forecasts.