Eric Berger

Good morning, Houston! We are now at the mid-point of December. In the big picture, the forecast is pretty straightforward. After three very warm days, a front arrives to make for a wet and chilly weekend. This colder pattern persists into the middle of next week. And after that? We start warming and waiting to see if another front makes it through before Christmas Day. If not, then Mele Kalikimaka my friends, as it will feel more like Honolulu in winter than Houston.

Wednesday

Modest southerly winds are helping to mitigate the formation of fog this morning, although there are still a few patchy areas around town. Otherwise, we’re going to see partly sunny conditions today, with highs reaching about 80 degrees, or possibly warmer for inland areas. Those winds will continue from the south throughout the day, possibly gusting as high as 20 mph. Some very light, spotty showers will be possible. But rain chances are less than 20 percent. Overnight lows will be warm, only dropping to around 70 in Houston.

Thursday

See Wednesday’s forecast.

Friday

More of the same, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, highs around 80 degrees or a tick warmer, and a pronounced onshore flow of moist air from the Gulf.

Saturday

The timing of the front remains somewhat in question, but most likely it will move through the Houston area between sunrise and around Noon on Saturday. Temperatures will drop into the 60s during the afternoon hours, and lows down near 50 in the city overnight with cloudy skies. On and off rain showers will be possible throughout the day, with accumulations averaging an inch, with some areas seeing more, some less.

Sunday

This will be a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures likely peaking in the upper 50s. Some scattered showers are possible during the daytime and Sunday night, but we’re not looking at anything too heavy. Mostly, it should just be cloudy and cool. Lows Sunday night should get into the upper 40s for Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas. Rain chances persist into Monday morning.

Next week

As mentioned, Houston will remain on the cooler and drier side of things through about Wednesday of next week, after which daytime highs are probably going back into the mid-70s, with mild nights. Rain chances, for now, look low next week. So will this pattern persist all the way into Christmas? I still don’t have a definitive answer on that, unfortunately. It all depends on the timing of the next front, which remains uncertain, but now seems a little more likely to arrive just in time for Santa. Yesterday I was predicting a 60 percent chance of no Christmas front, and a 40 percent chance of a front. Today I’m 50-50. One thing is for sure, the probability of snow is the same as that of the Houston Texans making the playoffs.

The weather Houston has experienced this month is very far from normal. Through the first 13 days of the month the average temperature has been 9.7 degrees above normal. If the month ended today, this December would go down as the warmest on record. The month, of course, is not over. But that record remains well within striking distance as the rest of this week will see temperatures soaring 20 degrees warmer than is customary for December. We will see a cooldown this weekend that will last into Christmas week. But will it last into Christmas Day? That’s a big question right now.

Tuesday

If you like fog and humidity and high dewpoints, have we got a December delight for you. Low temperatures this morning have only fallen to about 70 degrees, and as this warm and moist air moves over cooler waters it is creating what’s known as sea fog. This fog is fairly thick in some places, but should erode later this morning. In its wake we’ll see a mostly cloudy day with highs of around 80 degrees. Some rather light, scattered showers will be possible throughout the day. Your chances of seeing rain are probably about 20 percent or less, however. As for tonight, you guessed it. Warm, muggy, and more fog possible.

Wednesday and Thursday

Not much changes as we get into the middle of the week. Probably the only noticeable shift will be winds becoming a bit more pronounced out of the south, with some gusts up to 20 mph. Slight rain chances remain.

Friday

Does significant change come on Friday?

Nope.

Saturday and Sunday

However, change will arrive by the weekend as a front drops down into the region. In terms of timing, my best guess is that the front moves through between sunrise on Saturday and noon. And it’s going to be a wet frontal passage. I don’t think we’re looking at anything extreme, but a line of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will accompany the front. Unfortunately high pressure won’t move in immediately afterward, which means we’re going to see a continuation of moderate rain chances through Sunday night. Overall accumulations are probably about 1 inch of rain for most, give or take.

In terms of temperatures, they’ll drop into the 60s in the wake of the front. Clouds will probably limit lows on Saturday night to about 50 degrees in central Houston. Sunday may peak at about 60 degrees, with scattered showers, and lots of clouds. Lows Sunday night will probably drop into the upper 40s in Houston.

Next week

Skies clear out on Monday and this will lead to sunny days and cooler nights. Monday and Tuesday should both see highs in the 60s, with lows in the 40s. (Tuesday morning will likely be the coldest of the week). After that we start warming up, and if you’re wondering about Christmas weather the question becomes the timing of the next front. If one doesn’t come before the holiday, which seems like the most plausible scenario, then your Christmas Day weather may be something like today. (I know, right?) Right now I’d lean 60-40 in favor of no front, versus the next front to cool things down.

Good morning. After a winter-like weekend, our temperatures will be back on the upswing toward near-record heat this week, with highs of around 80 degrees from Tuesday through Friday. By week’s end another front will arrive, and this should usher in more typically chilly weather for December. What happens after that? Read on below for full details about the Christmas week forecast.

Monday

Temperatures are generally in the 50s across the metro area this morning, and we can say goodbye to those after a few hours. Today will generally be mostly cloudy, which will help to limit high temperatures to about 70 degrees. Some very light rainfall, almost mist-like, will be possible later today, but any accumulations should be scant. Winds will be light, shifting to come from the southeast later today. Lows tonight will only drop a few degrees from daytime highs, into the mid-60s for most.

Tuesday

Dewpoints on Tuesday will morning will be about 20 degrees higher than on Monday, and accordingly it’s going to feel pretty muggy outside. Some fog will be possible as a result. As skies clear out some on Tuesday, high temperatures will reach about 80 degrees. Overnight lows will drop to around 70 along the coast, with conditions a few degrees cooler inland. This is about 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Wednesday

Conditions will be more or less same as on Tuesday, although winds out of the south will be more noticeable, gusting above 20 mph.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern remains more or less the same. On Thursday a front will move into northern Texas and stall. This may provide the impetus for some cloud cover and potentially some showers locally, but in truth I don’t think there will be too much sensible effect on the Houston area weather. There is a stronger front coming, but it probably won’t reach the Houston metro area until Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend is mostly going to be wet, gray, and cold. There are still some uncertainties in terms of timing, but at some point between Friday night and noon on Saturday a strong front will blow in. The details are yet to come, but as there will be plenty of atmospheric moisture with which to work, and this front will be bringing a significantly colder air mass into a warm one, rain showers and thunderstorms are definitely possible. Temperatures after the front on Saturday should be in the 60s, with lows likely in the 40s.

The rain probably isn’t going anywhere on Sunday, with a solid 50 percent chance of rain, and highs again probably topping out at about 60 degrees. Lows will again likely be in the upper 40s on Sunday night.

Christmas week outlook

Eventually our atmosphere should settle down, and right now I think this probably will happen on Monday, leading to gradually clearing skies and lowering rain chances. This should set the stage for clear and cool weather through at least Wednesday, with lows solidly in the 40s.

There is no clear guidance in the models about what comes after this, but the most likely scenario is warming trend through next Friday, Christmas Eve, or Saturday, Christmas Day. In this case, I’d guess we’re looking at highs in the 70s with warmish nights for the holiday. Right now there is no strong signal for heavy precipitation around Christmas, nor particularly cold temperatures, so snow is not on the menu. If this sounds un-festive to you, take some hope that there’s a non-trivial chance that another front slides through before Christmas, in which case things would feel more seasonal out. We shall see.

This month has started out with significantly warmer than normal weather. So far we have experienced four 80-degree days, and the average temperature has run about 10 degrees above normal. Cooler weather has been the exception in December, rather than the norm. And this pattern seems likely to continue through at least the first two-thirds of the month. So is there any chance of a colder turn toward Christmas, the remainder of the holidays, and New Years?

The pattern for the middle third of the month is pretty set. We’re going to warm back into the 80s to end this work week, a strong-ish front will cool things down for the weekend, and then we’ll be back into at least the upper 70s for most of next week. So eight or even nine of the next 10 days will see warmer than normal weather. So what of the last 10 days of the month?

This extended period lies beyond the ability of our existing models for precision forecasting. However, it does look as though some sort of front may arrive around Dec. 20. After that the “weekly” models from all of our sources suggest somewhat more normal weather to end the month. That is, instead of days in the 70s and 80s, and nights in the 50s and 60s, we can more probably expect days in the 60s and nights in the 40s or 50s. At this point—and it really is way too early to say this with any confidence, but here goes anyways—I’m seeing little signal for a freeze before the end of the year. But we shall see.

The bottom line: The first two-thirds of December are going to be quite a bit warmer than normal, but the last part of the month should feel more seasonal. Probably. We think. I mean, it has to feel like Christmas sometime, right?

Thursday

There is some patchy fog west of Houston this morning, but this should burn off within a few hours. After it does, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy, as temperatures rise into the low 80s. Some very light showers or drizzle will be possible throughout the day, but chances are less than 20 percent. Temperatures across much of the region are unlikely to fall below 70 degrees, a very sticky night for December.

Friday

This will be another warm and mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures in the low to possibly mid-80s. This will also be another day during which light showers are possible throughout the day, but accumulations should not be anything to write home about. Expect another warm night ahead of the frontal passage.

Saturday

At some point a ragged line of showers and thunderstorms will progress through the region ahead of the front. This line probably arrives in areas northwest of Houston an hour or two after midnight, reaches the city a few hours later, and arrives at the coast just before sunrise. Accumulations should measure a few tenths of an inch of rain for most. A significantly drier air mass will move in an hour or two behind the rain, and with dewpoints falling into the 30s, the air will indeed feel much drier. Highs should drop into the 50s during the afternoon hours with wind gusts reaching 30 mph. Winds start to die down a bit during the evening, with lows dropping into the 40s for most of Houston.

Sunday

A truly winter-like day with mostly sunny skies, highs in the low- to mid-60s, and another chilly night in the 40s and 50s.

Next week

As mentioned above, we’ll see a warming trend next week, with high temperatures recovering into at least the mid- to upper 70s by Tuesday, and onward.