Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston will enjoy a spectacular spring-like day today before we start our rise toward weather I like to call “summer lite.” While the next 10 days won’t feel like the truly sultry conditions we get here in August, after winter and spring the near-90 degree weather with ample humidity won’t feel far off. Bottom line: Enjoy the dry air today, because it will be gone tomorrow.

Also, I want to announce that I’ve started a Space City Weather TikTok page. For many of you, this will be an announcement of no consequence. But my 14-year-old daughter convinced me to experiment with it, so that’s what I’ll be doing. It will be a mix of weather, nerdy humor, and no doubt for me, a modicum of embarrassment.

Wednesday

Today’s the day, folks. We may see one or two more weak fronts this spring in Houston, but looking out over the next 10 days there are absolutely no guarantees of that. So enjoy today if you can. We’ll see reasonably dry air—with dewpoints in the 50s—and sunny skies as highs climb to around 80 degrees. Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures tonight will only be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night, but the air will already start to feel a bit more humid.

Thursday

This is kind of a transition day from spring to summer lite, as we’ll only probably see temperatures in the low 80s. But there will be some clouds, and we will start to see some gusty southerly winds at 20 to 25 mph. Lows Thursday night may not drop below 70 degrees in some parts of Houston.

Friday

Expect partly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 80s and more southerly breezes, perhaps gusting to 25 or even 30 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

You guessed it: More heat and humidity. Highs this weekend will push the upper 80s to possibly 90 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. We can’t rule out a few scattered showers on each afternoon, but the chance is only probably 10 or 15 percent each day. Expect ongoing southerly breezes. If you’re riding in the Bike MS: Texas MS 150, be sure and drink plenty of water.

Next week

Not a whole lot changes to start next week, with daily rain chances of 10 to 20 percent. However it looks like, by the middle of next week, high pressure may start to exert more influence. That would shut down any potential for rain, and drive highs into the low 90s. So, yeah.

The Houston region received some much needed rainfall on Monday. The 0.25 to 3 inches of rainfall picked up will not erase our emerging drought, especially for areas south of Interstate 10, but for many parts of the area this was the first meaningful rainfall in all of April. Our next decent chance of rain will come next Sunday or Monday, but it is by no means a slam dunk.

Tuesday

The rains have ended for now, and northerly winds are bringing drier air into the region. Highs today will probably reach about 80 degrees beneath partially clearing skies this afternoon, as winds continue at 10 to 15 mph from the north. This evening should be quite pleasant, as winds relax and we see some of the last dry air of this spring. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 50s for areas well inland, with 60s closer to the coast.

Wednesday

This should be a great day, with highs of around 80 degrees, sunny skies, dry air, and light winds. Really, if you can spend a little time out doors morning, midday, or evening, you should.

Thursday and Friday

As the southerly flow reestablishes itself, our humidity and temperatures are going to go up. These will be partly sunny days with highs in the low to mid-80s on Thursday, and mid- to upper-80s on Friday. Nighttime lows will bounce back up to the low 70s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday will almost feel summer-like, as temperatures reach near 90 degrees, with lots of sunshine and plenty of humidity. Sunday may see a few more clouds, and there probably will be a 20 percent chance of rain, or so, as the atmosphere is perturbed by an advancing cold front that will wash out well north of Houston. Some modest rain chances will remain for the first part of next week, with daily highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

There is a decent chance of a cool front around the end of the first week of May, perhaps in the Thursday or Friday time frame of next week. But it is far, far from a lock at this point.

After days and days and days of warm weather, with a persistent southerly breeze, our weather will change today and tonight. Most of the region should see scattered showers this morning, with an increasing chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. It has been a rather dry spring, so this rainfall will be mostly welcome. A front will bring some briefly drier and cooler weather before we warm up again next weekend.

Monday

It’s rather warm this morning, with lows only dropping to around 75 degrees in the city of Houston. Highs today will reach the mid-80s, with mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Light rain is possible this morning. Due to the front’s approach and our extremely moist atmosphere, thunderstorm chances will start to increase this afternoon for areas north of Interstate 10 before sagging southward this evening toward the coast, where conditions will be less supportive of heavy rainfall.

Most of our region will probably get rainfall through the overnight hours, with areas north of Interstate 10 seeing perhaps 1 to 2 inches, and areas south of the freeway recording 0.5 to 1 inches. However there will be wide variability in rainfall totals depending on precisely where storms set up. One location may pick up 4 inches, whereas a few miles away there’s a few tenths of an inch.

Tuesday

Some rain chances will linger on Tuesday morning, but the threat of heavy rainfall will have passed. However, skies will remain mostly cloudy, and with moderate northerly winds highs probably will only reach the mid-70s. As skies start to clear out overnight, and with the influx of more dry air, lows on Tuesday night heading into Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the week. Expect 50s for inland areas, with mid-60s right along the coast. Don’t blink, because it won’t last long.

Wednesday

This should be an extremely pleasant day, with highs of around 80 degrees, light winds, dry air, and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night as a southerly flow starts to exert its influence.

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the 80s, although by Friday highs will probably be pushing into the upper 80s. Southerly winds will start to pick up, at 10 to 15 mph, likely with gusts of about 20 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warm and humid, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Both weekend days should see a mixture of sunshine and clouds. We can’t entirely rule out some scattered showers, but for now I’d put the chances in the 10 percent range. Winds will be noticeable out of the south, perhaps gusting to 20 mph. If you’re riding Bike MS: Texas MS 150 on Saturday and Sunday, those southerly winds should be fairly consistent along your whole route.

Conditions look to remain warm heading into early May, with only a slight chance of a weak front during the first week of next month. I hate to say it, but summer is nigh.

We are only a little more than a month away from the beginning of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and the early indications are that we will see yet another busy season in Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Phil Klotzbach released his first extended range forecast earlier this month, predicting 19 named storms, or about 25 percent above-normal activity. Then, on Wednesday, Klotzbach shared another data point. The latest modeling suggests that the Pacific Ocean is likely to fall into a La Niña pattern during August, September, and October.

The latest suite of ENSO forecast model guidance has shifted decidedly colder for the peak of the Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October). Odds of La Nina appear to be increasing, and odds of El Nino appear to be decreasing. pic.twitter.com/YJKS4CQuZU

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 19, 2022

The issue here is that when La Niña forms in the Pacific, inducing a general cooling of sea surface temperatures near the equator there, it tends to increase Atlantic hurricane activity by making conditions more favorable for tropical systems to develop and strengthen. Seasonal forecasting is not perfect, of course, but with hurricane season rapidly coming upon us, this is your reminder to start making preparations. Accordingly, the State of Texas is having a sales tax holiday this weekend for emergency supplies, from April 23 to April 25. Full details are here.

Thursday

Conditions today will once again, you guessed it, be windy and warm. Look for highs in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies. Winds will blow from the southeast at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph or so. With dewpoints near 70 degrees, it will feel plenty sticky outside. Overnight lows are unlikely to fall below 70 degrees on Thursday night.

Friday

See Thursday’s forecast.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will bring more of the same conditions, with highs in the 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies. However, as we’re caught between low pressure and high pressure systems, expect winds to be that little bit stronger on Saturday. We might see gusts of 30 mph or higher at times. Over night lows will again not fall much, if any, below 70 degrees.

Sunday

Winds will relax a little bit on Sunday, but there will still be a persistent southeasterly flow to go along with our mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s.

Monday and beyond

Confidence is reasonably high in a front approaching our region on Monday and bringing some widespread (and much needed) rain showers to the region. Early guidance indicates that the better rain chances will be inland of Interstate 10, rather than along the coast, but we shall see. It’s my hope that most of the area picks up an inch or so of rainfall, but some of us will very probably see less than that. The rains are needed as our region slides toward a severe drought, which I’m guessing Matt will probably discuss on Friday. Lows will probably drop to around 60 degrees with some drier air for a couple of days after the front.