Eric Berger

Good morning. I wanted nothing more than to start this week by writing a hopeful post about Houston’s forthcoming weather—to say something about cooler weather ahead, more moderate nights, or a few days of steady rainfall and cloudy days. Alas, this is a reality-based site, and I’m sorry to say the rest of July looks very sunny, very hot, and mostly rain free.

Before jumping into the forecast, dreadful though it may be, I wanted to provide a situational update on our 100 degree days this year. These are officially recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport, which is the city’s official monitoring station. Through Sunday, the city has now recorded 14 such days, which places this year second only to 1980 in terms of accumulation through July 17. Matt has been tracking these dates, and prepared the line chart below to show how this year (black line) compares to to most summers. Of note are years 1980 (Blue) and 2011 (pink).

Monday

High pressure is back, and it will be the dominant factor in our weather for the week ahead. This means mostly sunny skies for today, with highs near or above 100 degrees for inland areas, with highs in the low- to mid-90s near the coast. Winds will be light, out of the south or southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Lows will be sultry, only dropping to about 80 degrees in Houston. Rain chances are 10 percent or less, due to a capping inversion that is helping to prevent air at the surface from rising.

Tuesday

Rinse and repeat, although there will be precious little rinsing due to a lack of rain.

Wednesday and Thursday

Both of these days will be sunny, and perhaps a degree or two warmer as the high really takes hold.

Friday

Some sort of weak disturbance may attempt to pass over the area toward the end of the week, and this could bump up our rain chances to about 20 or possibly even 30 percent. It ain’t much, but it’s probably the best we’ll see this week.

Saturday and Sunday

These should be mostly sunny days, with highs of around 100 degrees. Rain chances at this point don’t look to be zero, but they are less than 20 percent.

Next week

If you’re looking to the extended forecast with some hope of a pattern change, I would say two things. First of all, congratulations on being an optimist. The worlds needs more of you. The second thing I would say is to remind you that August begins in 13 days.

Good morning. We’ve seen a healthy line of thunderstorms move through coastal areas this morning, including a pretty good soaking for the city of Galveston. As I write this the rain-cooled temperature is 77 degrees on the island. According to the National Weather Service, this is the first time the temperature there has dropped below 83 degrees, since July 1. I’m hopeful that other parts of the metro Houston area will see some welcome showers today and on Friday before heat and high pressure return this weekend.

Thursday

Skies will be partly sunny today as atmospheric moisture levels increase, and high pressure remains just far enough to our northwest to allow clouds to form. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely this afternoon, with storms moving from northeast to southwest. Local temperatures will depend a lot on the extent of this cloud cover later today, and whether you see showers this afternoon and evening. Overall, I expect areas south of 1-10 to stay in the low- to mid-90s, with inland areas likely seeing the upper 90s, and some locations such as College Station probably pushing to 100 degrees.

Rain chances are about 40 percent, and these showers will be hit or miss, with briefly intense rains possible and straight-line winds within thunderstorms. Storm chances will slacken overnight. Winds will be light, mostly out of the southeast.

Friday

I expect Friday to be similar to Thursday, albeit with probably the better chance of rain closer to the coast. This day probably is our region’s best chance to see a high temperature of 95 degrees or lower since July 1, and also probably our best chance of doing so for at least the next week or 10 days.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see a return to high temperatures in the upper 90s for much of the region, with far inland areas possibly hitting 100 degrees. These days will be mostly sunny, although we probably will have about a 20 percent chance of an afternoon shower.

Next week

Unfortunately it appears as though high pressure will continue to build back over the area next week, pushing area-wide highs toward 100 degrees again, and rain chances below 20 percent each day. If you’re wondering when this pattern will break, I’m not sure I have a great answer. Instead, I have a depressing one—we still have our warmest month to come, August, when these ridges are often at their thickest. I hope you see some precipitation today.

Good morning. The story of the summer so far remains one of heat, and while we’re going to take a step back in temperatures for a few days, the reprieve may be relatively brief. In case you’re wondering, Houston now has an average temperature of 88.5 degrees for the month of July, which would break the existing record of 87.5 degrees (set in 1980) by a full degree. June, already, was the city’s warmest month on record. I’d like to say this summer sucks, but the opposite is actually true in regard to the pressure pattern driving this heat.

Persistent high pressure over the southern United States has been the predominant meteorological cause of this summer’s heat. This has generally created conditions for sinking air, which has led to clear skies and sunny days. This provides ideal conditions for daytime heating, and outside of one week in late June and early July, we just haven’t had much of a break from this pattern. Unfortunately, we expect the high pressure pattern to mostly persist at least for the next couple of weeks.

Wednesday

Happy 713 day! It’s July 13, the day we celebrate Houston’s OG area code and our city’s unique identity. Hopefully, Mother Nature will get into the festivities and keep highs just below 100 degrees for at least part of the city. Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast to the low 100s for areas well inland, as the region experiences yet another brutally hot day. Like on recent afternoons, we should see some scattered showers and thunderstorms pop up north of Houston, and then move steadily toward the southwest. Some areas west of downtown got lucky yesterday, and I wish you good fortune today. Watching the radar of late has been a mix of hope and dread—hope for rainfall, and dread of the inevitable miss.

Thursday

This still looks like the day with the best chance for more clouds, widespread rain, and somewhat cooler temperatures. This is because the high pressure system retreats a bit further to the west, opening the door to rain chances of perhaps 30 to 50 percent, and keeping highs in the mid-90s for much of the area.

Friday

Another day with highs possibly only in the mid-90s, although rain chances look to be lower than Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

Alas, high pressure will start to build back over the region by late this week, and both weekend days look very hot, in the upper 90s to 100 degrees with mostly sunny skies. Rain chances, again, look to be quite low, perhaps 10 to 20 percent.

Next week

The outlook for next week still looks a little muddled. Generally I’d expect highs in the upper-90s, but I think there’s a chance we’re a bit cooler than that, with some slightly better rain chances. Put another way, it’s going to be hot, but I don’t think it’s going to be quite as brutal as it has been as we’ve seen so far this month.

The very worst of the heat is over, at least for now. The very thick ridge of high pressure influencing our weather continues to retreat westward, and this should help nudge high temperatures downward a bit, toward the mid-90s eventually. Additionally, our rain chances will improve moderately over the next several days. However, it appears as though the potential for heavy rainfall from a tropical system will remain to our east, over Louisiana.

Tuesday

The high temperature on Monday at Bush Intercontinental and Hobby airports reached 103 degrees, and today should be a couple of degrees cooler to go along with mostly sunny skies. The century mark will still be reachable for much of the region away from the coast, however, so please continue to take heat precautions. Winds will be very light, perhaps blowing at 5 mph out of the southwest or west. Rain chances are about 20 to 30 percent near the coast today, and perhaps 10 to 20 percent inland. If there were a way to buy multiple rainfall raffle tickets, I’d definitely be in “Take my money!” mode.

Wednesday

Another day a lot like Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday

These days may be a bit cloudier, and cooler, with highs perhaps topping out in the mid-90s. I’m hopeful that daily rain chances will be in the range of 40 percent, and there should be a few lucky areas picking up 1 inch or so. The rest of us? Probably not so lucky.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks similar, with highs probably slotting somewhere in the mid-90s, and rain chances perhaps in the 30 percent neighborhood. Skies should be mostly sunny.

Next week

The forecast for early next week is still somewhat uncertain. It does seem possible that high pressure will start to build back in over the region, pushing temperatures up. However, there are also some scenarios in which conditions stay in the mid-90s, with pretty healthy daily rain chances. I realize that’s not very helpful, but it’s the best I can do right now.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to predict that a tropical blob near the Louisiana coast has a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next five days. This is likely to make for very wet weekend in Southern Louisiana, with 5 to 10 inches possible in and around New Orleans. Unfortunately, Houston is likely to fall just outside the heavy rainfall boundary as the system moves into Louisiana.