Eric Berger

After days and days and days of warm weather, with a persistent southerly breeze, our weather will change today and tonight. Most of the region should see scattered showers this morning, with an increasing chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. It has been a rather dry spring, so this rainfall will be mostly welcome. A front will bring some briefly drier and cooler weather before we warm up again next weekend.

Monday

It’s rather warm this morning, with lows only dropping to around 75 degrees in the city of Houston. Highs today will reach the mid-80s, with mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Light rain is possible this morning. Due to the front’s approach and our extremely moist atmosphere, thunderstorm chances will start to increase this afternoon for areas north of Interstate 10 before sagging southward this evening toward the coast, where conditions will be less supportive of heavy rainfall.

Most of our region will probably get rainfall through the overnight hours, with areas north of Interstate 10 seeing perhaps 1 to 2 inches, and areas south of the freeway recording 0.5 to 1 inches. However there will be wide variability in rainfall totals depending on precisely where storms set up. One location may pick up 4 inches, whereas a few miles away there’s a few tenths of an inch.

Tuesday

Some rain chances will linger on Tuesday morning, but the threat of heavy rainfall will have passed. However, skies will remain mostly cloudy, and with moderate northerly winds highs probably will only reach the mid-70s. As skies start to clear out overnight, and with the influx of more dry air, lows on Tuesday night heading into Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the week. Expect 50s for inland areas, with mid-60s right along the coast. Don’t blink, because it won’t last long.

Wednesday

This should be an extremely pleasant day, with highs of around 80 degrees, light winds, dry air, and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows Wednesday night will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night as a southerly flow starts to exert its influence.

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of partly to mostly sunny days with highs in the 80s, although by Friday highs will probably be pushing into the upper 80s. Southerly winds will start to pick up, at 10 to 15 mph, likely with gusts of about 20 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warm and humid, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Both weekend days should see a mixture of sunshine and clouds. We can’t entirely rule out some scattered showers, but for now I’d put the chances in the 10 percent range. Winds will be noticeable out of the south, perhaps gusting to 20 mph. If you’re riding Bike MS: Texas MS 150 on Saturday and Sunday, those southerly winds should be fairly consistent along your whole route.

Conditions look to remain warm heading into early May, with only a slight chance of a weak front during the first week of next month. I hate to say it, but summer is nigh.

We are only a little more than a month away from the beginning of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and the early indications are that we will see yet another busy season in Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Phil Klotzbach released his first extended range forecast earlier this month, predicting 19 named storms, or about 25 percent above-normal activity. Then, on Wednesday, Klotzbach shared another data point. The latest modeling suggests that the Pacific Ocean is likely to fall into a La Niña pattern during August, September, and October.

The latest suite of ENSO forecast model guidance has shifted decidedly colder for the peak of the Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October). Odds of La Nina appear to be increasing, and odds of El Nino appear to be decreasing. pic.twitter.com/YJKS4CQuZU

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 19, 2022

The issue here is that when La Niña forms in the Pacific, inducing a general cooling of sea surface temperatures near the equator there, it tends to increase Atlantic hurricane activity by making conditions more favorable for tropical systems to develop and strengthen. Seasonal forecasting is not perfect, of course, but with hurricane season rapidly coming upon us, this is your reminder to start making preparations. Accordingly, the State of Texas is having a sales tax holiday this weekend for emergency supplies, from April 23 to April 25. Full details are here.

Thursday

Conditions today will once again, you guessed it, be windy and warm. Look for highs in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies. Winds will blow from the southeast at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph or so. With dewpoints near 70 degrees, it will feel plenty sticky outside. Overnight lows are unlikely to fall below 70 degrees on Thursday night.

Friday

See Thursday’s forecast.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will bring more of the same conditions, with highs in the 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies. However, as we’re caught between low pressure and high pressure systems, expect winds to be that little bit stronger on Saturday. We might see gusts of 30 mph or higher at times. Over night lows will again not fall much, if any, below 70 degrees.

Sunday

Winds will relax a little bit on Sunday, but there will still be a persistent southeasterly flow to go along with our mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s.

Monday and beyond

Confidence is reasonably high in a front approaching our region on Monday and bringing some widespread (and much needed) rain showers to the region. Early guidance indicates that the better rain chances will be inland of Interstate 10, rather than along the coast, but we shall see. It’s my hope that most of the area picks up an inch or so of rainfall, but some of us will very probably see less than that. The rains are needed as our region slides toward a severe drought, which I’m guessing Matt will probably discuss on Friday. Lows will probably drop to around 60 degrees with some drier air for a couple of days after the front.

Springtime winds have returned to Houston. On Tuesday the region recorded gusts above 35 mph, and it was at times unpleasant outside. As a reminder, April is the windiest month of the year in Houston, with an average wind speed of 8.9 mph. However this month has been windier than most. So far, the monthly average this month is 10.0 mph, and we will probably end up a little higher than that with gusty conditions ahead this week.

Wednesday

Low temperatures this morning have only fallen to around 70 degrees. Highs this afternoon will reach the low-80s, moderated in part by mostly cloudy skies. Strong southerly winds will again be the story, with gusts up to 30 mph or even a bit higher. The winds are being driven by a surface low pressure system over Kansas, the rotation of which is drawing winds northward. Low temperatures tonight will, again, likely only drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

The overall pattern will remain much the same, with highs in the 80s, partly sunny skies, breezy southerly winds, and plenty of humidity.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should bring more of the same, but conditions might even be slightly windier. So yeah, while it should be sunny on Saturday, there will be plenty of wind to go along with it, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.

Sunday, Monday, and beyond

Sunday should be partly sunny and breezy as well, with highs likely in the upper 80s. But by Sunday night and into Monday we start to see some uncertainty creep into the forecast. Rain chances will increase on Sunday night and Monday, as a front nears. Right now chances appear to be better north of Houston. Then there is the question of how strong the front is, and how far it pushes through the region. For now I’m going with the front only having a fairly modest effect on temperatures and humidity, but we could see something stronger by Monday or Tuesday. Regardless, highs toward the end of next week probably will be near 90 degrees as we near the end of April.

Good morning. Temperatures have dropped into the 50s across nearly the entire metro area this morning, which is fairly chilly for this time of year. But winds have turned easterly already, and that marks the beginning of warmer, windier weather for pretty much the rest of this week. We’ll be somewhere in the 80s, with lots of humidity and persistent southerly winds through the weekend.

Tuesday

Skies should be partly to mostly sunny today, and temperatures will remain on the moderate side with highs in the upper 70s. However, winds out of the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts of about 25 mph, and this will start to pump up humidity levels. Highs will reach the upper 70s this afternoon, but lows will only drop to around 70 degrees tonight.

Wednesday

In response to low pressure in the middle of the United States, winds will again be noticeable on Wednesday, out of the south at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Look for highs in the low 80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and overnight lows in the low 70s.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week brings more of the same, albeit warmer, conditions. Look for partly sunny skies, highs in the mid- to upper-80s, with a breezy southerly flow. We’re not looking at anything extreme, but winds will be fairly constant this week.

Saturday and Sunday

More of the same: The weekend should see partly sunny skies, highs in the 80s, and more southerly winds. Despite increasing moisture levels, there is virtually no chance of rain through at least Saturday, and probably on Sunday as well.

Next week

Changes will eventually come to this pattern, but probably not until later on Monday or Tuesday, with the next front. All of this moisture will help setup our region’s next real chance of rain during that time frame, and then we should see some legitimately cooler and drier weather afterward. How wet and cool will it get? Alas those details are understandably fuzzy at more than a week out.

Reliant Giveaway winner

I’m happy to report that Mike Burgas and Laura Martinez have won the Reliant-Astros Giveaway! We’ll contact you shortly.