Eric Berger

I hope everyone is enjoying our mostly sunny weekend. We should continue to see partly to mostly sunny skies today, with highs of about 90 degrees. There will be one noticeable difference, however—winds will pick up out of the south and become a little gusty this afternoon. This is a harbinger of atmospheric moisture levels rising across the area. Still, aside from the potential for a very few, very scattered showers, it should be a quiet day.

Conditions may change tonight as a line of storms associated with a cold front moves southeastward across the state of Texas. These storms could be especially severe in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area on Sunday evening, likely from around 7 to 10 pm. This is something to consider if you’re traveling back to Houston from North Texas tonight.

This line of storms will weaken some as it moves closer to the Houston metro area, pushing through College Station after midnight, and likely reaching the central Houston region by around sunrise or before. The main threat from these storms will be damaging winds and hail. My sense is that the storms will weaken enough to not provide too much disruption to Monday morning’s commute, but please do be aware of the possibility of showers and thunderstorms early on Monday. Things should clear out quickly, regardless.

The other question concerns whether this front pushes all the way through Houston and to the coast. Some modeling now suggests it briefly will move to the coast, giving the region a dash of notably drier air on Monday and Monday night, but it’s going to be close. We’ll know for sure by tomorrow morning’s post.

Houston will remain under the influence of high pressure for several more days, allowing Houston’s skies to remain sunny through early next week. The only notable change will be an increase in humidity levels beginning Friday night as the flow becomes more southerly across the area.

Thursday

Conditions today will be similar to what we experienced on Tuesday and Wednesday, with sunny skies, highs near 90 degrees, and light northerly winds. The air isn’t exactly dry, but it’s not humid either. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s inland, upper 60s in Houston itself, and low 70s along the coast.

Friday and Saturday

Basically, more of the same. Saturday will see rising dewpoints but it will still be reasonably nice outside. Highs again will be near 90.

Sunday and Monday

A front approaches the area on Sunday, but in all likelihood it will peter out before reaching Houston. So we should see mostly sunny skies both days, with high temperatures near 90 degrees. There’s a slight chance of rain, perhaps 10 or 20 percent, on Sunday night and Monday due to the dying front. Overnight lows will be back in the 70s, area-wide. Hello, humidity!

Next week

Our forecast becomes a little more uncertain later next week, when there’s a chance some sort of front may work its way through during the middle of the week, or more likely, not until the weekend. In any case, we’ll likely see more clouds and highs backing off a few degrees. There’s a decent chance that next weekend feels more fall-like in Houston, but it’s still too far to have much confidence.

Good morning. Houston’s weather remains exceptionally calm, with light winds, warm temperatures, and moderately drier air. This pattern will persist into the weekend, when the onshore flow returns, and humidity levels rise. Rain chances remain zero through the weekend.

Wednesday

Today will bring sunny skies, and highs in the upper 80s. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 mph or less. With dewpoints in the 60s, the air will be feel drier than is typical during the summer, but not exactly dry. Lows overnight will drop into the low 60s for inland areas, mid-60s for Houston, and low 70s for right along the coast.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

Winds will start increasing from the south and southeast later on Friday and this will start to drive up humidity levels this weekend. Saturday will still feel a tad dry as highs push up to around 90 degrees, but Sunday should feel more like “Houston” humid out there. Skies should be mostly sunny, regardless, with no chance of rain. Plan outdoor activities with high confidence.

Next week

The forecast for next week is written very much in pencil. Low to moderate rain chances return by Monday or Tuesday. A front should near the area during the early part of the week, but will likely wash out before pushing into Houston. A stronger front is likely next weekend, but any details right now are pretty sketchy.

Hispanic Heritage Month

The U.S. Hispanic Heritage Month runs from September 15 through October 15, and recognizes the contribution of Hispanic Americans to the history and culture of our country. Matt, Maria, and I thought we would put a fun spin on this by talking about the history of hurricane names, and why some of them have Hispanic names.

The forecast for the week ahead is pretty straightforward and locked in, so we’re not going to take up too much of your time this morning. Expect lots of sunny skies and somewhat drier air through about Saturday, after which the onshore flow returns. Some slight rain chances return late Sunday or Monday.

Tuesday

Some readers have groused that this isn’t much of a front, and I’m here to tell you there’s a reason why we characterized it as a weak one. The truth is, we’re mostly just seeing a northerly flow rather an abundance of colder air. Nevertheless this flow will have a salutary effect on our humidity levels for awhile. Today should be the driest day, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s, and accordingly I think Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will see the lowest temperatures for the week. Highs today should be in the mid- to upper-80s, with lows tonight dropping to about 60 degrees for inland areas, and low 70s right along the coast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Rinse and repeat. These will be sunny days, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s for most. The air will not be super dry, but it won’t be sultry and humid either. Take what you can get in early October, I say.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should more or less see a continuation of the weather we see most of this week, albeit with slightly rising humidity levels. Sunday should feel more like “Houston,” as the onshore flow resumes, and dewpoints start to climb toward 70 degrees. Highs this weekend will be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. A slight chance of showers returns Sunday night.

Next week and beyond

Most of next week looks warm, with highs near 90 degrees, but right now there’s no real signal in the models for too much in the way of rainfall. When is the next real cold front coming to Houston, you might ask? Right now there’s a pretty decent signal in both the European and GFS ensembles for something about 12 days from now, circa October 17. But that’s a long, long, long way out for us to have any confidence in the model forecasts. So we’ll just have to wait and see.