Eric Berger

Good morning. The threat of widespread, heavy rainfall has ended, and Houston will now enter a much more summer-like pattern. Looking back at last week, the map below shows seven-day rainfall totals, which varied widely across the region. Much of the area saw between 3 and 10 inches of rain, which periodically led to street flooding under the stronger storms. This is more or less the definition of a Stage 1 flood event for us. We’re glad to move beyond it.

Monday

This morning has started out cloudy, but we should see more sunshine as the day goes on, and as a result high temperatures will likely reach about 90 degrees for much of the area. A few scattered, strong storms are possible mainly north of Interstate 10 later this morning and during the afternoon, but they should progress from west to east fairly quickly. Otherwise, it will be breezy, with winds out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, and gusting higher. Lows tonight will be sticky, in the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As high pressure builds this week, we’ll eventually reach a period of mostly sunny skies. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday the high won’t yet be fully established, so we’ll retain some slight rain chances—perhaps about 20 percent—each day. Otherwise we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, along with highs of around 90 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Right now I think both of these days will yield mostly sunny skies and warm summertime temperatures, with highs in the low 90s. Rain chances should be low to near-zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather for the coming weekend is a bit uncertain as a weak front will drift into Texas, and may make some progress toward our region. At this point I doubt it will have much effect on our temperatures, but it may allow for the development of scattered showers. At this point, I’d bet on hot and sunny this weekend, but I’m far from confident in that outlook. Stay tuned.

Tropics Outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season began a week ago, and we’re seeing some suggestions in the global models of potential activity in the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week. While this certainly seems possible, it is beyond the ability of any model to accurately depict what will happen that far out. My guess would be some sort of tropical depression may move into or form in the southern Gulf of Mexico, rather than anything significantly more organized.

However, it’s that time of year, and we’ll keep an eye on things for you because the Gulf is fairly warm already. In return, we ask that you not bite when someone on social media shares a single run, of a single model, depicting a hurricane in the Gulf ten or more days from now. That kind of information is just not credible and usually intended to stoke fear.

A few days ago we anticipated that the worst of the rains would hit Houston this weekend. However, that no longer is likely to be the case as the biggest threat has begun to shift east of the Houston metro area over Louisiana. Nevertheless, we are going to maintain our Stage 1 flood alert through Sunday, as it will still be possible for localized areas to see heavy rainfall and some brief street flooding this weekend. But to be clear, most of the Houston region will not experience this.

Friday offers a case in point. Whereas most of Houston saw a few drops or perhaps one-tenth of an inch of rain, communities such as Bacliff, San Leon, and Kemah right along the west side of Galveston Bay saw 6 inches or more, which quickly flooded streets and even a few homes. There is the potential for this kind of isolated storm again today. It’s the classic Houston situation, you know? Some areas will see sunshine and dry roads, and a few miles away storms may be training.

The bottom line is that you should keep an umbrella handy this weekend. Rain chances are fairly high across the region, although we expect most of you to receive 1 inch or less through Sunday. We’re increasingly confident the heavy rainfall threat will end by Sunday evening, after which we’ll transition to a more summer-like pattern. Unless this forecast changes dramatically, we’ll see you on Monday morning.

Strong showers and thunderstorms developed on Wednesday evening, quickly dropping 2 to 3 inches of rain over parts of northeast Houston, near Humble. Other areas of the city also saw briefly strong storms with incredibly loud thunder. We still anticipate this heavy rainfall becoming more widespread this weekend, and due to the potential for street flooding we remain under a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire area.

Thursday

Today will be similar to Wednesday in that the daytime should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, allowing high temperatures to get into the upper 80s. As the temperature rises, we’ll see an increase in rain chances this afternoon. Rains will likely start somewhere near or just south of the Interstate 10 corridor, and then slowly lift north. I suspect a few areas will again see bullseyes of 2 to 3 inches of rain today, with most of the area seeing significantly less. Rain chances get lower after sunset.

Friday

At this point, it looks like conditions will favor more widespread rainfall on Friday, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches for much of the region, and higher isolated totals. Friday begins the period of biggest concern for us with these rains, and it will run through about Monday. As is typical with this kind of system, it can be difficult to predict exactly when and where the heaviest rains are going to fall even a few hours beforehand.

So what is this system? Essentially, a slow-moving upper-level low will move across the mountains of northern Mexico into southern Texas on Friday. Then it will meander across the state, with disturbances rotating counter-clockwise around its base. As it does so, the upper-level low and its associated disturbances will draw the Gulf of Mexico’s ample moisture into the coast, and this will set up a wet pattern that we won’t break out of for several days.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

This setup will generate periods of heavy rainfall along the Texas coast this weekend and into Monday. With access to the Gulf moisture, these storms will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour, and this quickly backs up streets. It looks like the peak of activity will come from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, but again, confidence with predicting specificity this far out is low. Bottom line: prepare for heavy rain this weekend. We expect widespread accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with higher localized accumulations. Matt and I will be watching all of this closely to keep you informed.

Next week

So when does this mess move on? Rain chances will start to slacken by Tuesday or Wednesday, and we think building high pressure will shut the spigot off by later in the week. Probably. Hopefully.

Good morning. The radar is quiet across the region, and likely will remain so this morning. However, the overall pattern remains favorable for rainfall this week, likely culminating in widespread showers and heavy rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. For this reason, we have instituted a Stage 1 flood alert that will run through the weekend. This is the lowest alert on our flood scale, and means there is the potential for nuisance street flooding.

Wednesday

Skies should be partly sunny today, and this will allow temperatures to warm into the mid- or upper-80s later on. In terms of rain, we expect a cluster of storms to approach the region from the west this afternoon. The question is how long they hold together, and whether they migrate all the way to the coast where a capping inversion should be a bit stronger. Therefore areas west of Interstate 45 and north of I-10 have the best chance for rain this evening through about midnight, and there could be some briefly heavy showers dropping an inch or two of rain over parts of the area. Rain chances fall back late tonight.

Thursday

This will be another day with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop, with briefly heavy rain across the metro area. About half of the area will probably see some rainfall. As skies will be mostly cloudy, temperatures should remain in the mid-80s on Thursday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As an upper-level low pressure system moves closer to our region this weekend, we’ll see increasingly favorable conditions for widespread rainfall beginning Friday. As usual, the details are difficult to pin down, but these kinds of atmospheric conditions typically produce heavy rains that can quickly back up streets. If you’re thinking about weekend plans, our best guess is that the period most likely to see showers and thunderstorms will run from mid-day Saturday through Sunday morning. But rain chances will be fairly high from Friday through Sunday, and most of the area will likely see accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the low 80s.

Next week

I’d love to tell you that by Monday we’ll see plenty of sunshine, but the reality is that we’ll probably see a continuation of healthy rain chances—in the 50 percent range—through the middle of next week. The overall pattern will then likely turn drier by the end of next week, with more sunshine and temperatures likely approaching the 90s. It is June, after all.