Eric Berger

It’s a rather chilly morning across the region, with temperatures falling from the mid-30s far north of Houston to the upper 40s right along the coast. However, these will be the last chilly temperatures that Houston experiences for awhile, and today will also probably be our last mostly sunny day until next week.

Tuesday

Some light sea fog will burn off fairly soon after sunrise, and temperatures will rise fairly quickly through the morning. High temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-70s across Houston with mostly sunny skies. Light winds will become more pronounced out of the south tonight, and temperatures will only drop into the upper 50s for most. These winds may help to work against the development of fog on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Increasing moisture levels will lead to a day of at least partly, if not mostly cloudy skies. Light, very scattered showers will be possible, but for the most part I think we’ll just see gray skies. High temperatures will likely reach the mid-70s. Overnight, a weak cold front will approach Texas, but most of the high-resolution modeling suggests it will stall out along Interstate 10, or just north of there. As a result, fog may be a problem for coastal areas for the rest of the week.

Thursday and Friday

Conditions toward the end of the week will depend upon which side of the front you find yourself. Highs along the coast will likely be in the 70s, and in the 60s for areas further inland. There will be decent rain chances on both days, but accumulations overall should be slight, measured in tenths of an inch.

Saturday and Sunday

As the front washes out, expect a warmer weekend for pretty much all of Houston—highs in the 70s, lows in the 60s, mostly cloudy skies and plenty of humidity. Perhaps a third of the area will see rain, again most likely in the form of light showers.

Next week

Our next chance of a front that makes it all the way to the coast comes about a week from today, and we should return to more normal conditions for this time of year by then.

Another arctic front?

There appear to be rumors spreading of another Arctic Outbreak moving into the greater Houston area during the first week of March. I’ve been asked about this multiple times on Twitter and in emails, so it must be circulating somewhere. I haven’t bothered to look. This rumor is not grounded in fact, however. While Houston may see some low temperatures in the 40s during the first week of March, I’d bet against anything lower. And I can definitively say we’re not going to see a repeat of what we saw earlier this month, with record lows and widespread snow and ice.

It was nice to have a weekend where we didn’t have to think (or, frankly, write) much about the weather, and rather to just enjoy it. Sunshine, warmth, and mild weather all were tremendously welcome after Houston’s winter week from hell. Fortunately, there is more generally mild weather ahead and we really have no major concerns to highlight for you at this time.

Monday

A cold front pushed through Houston during the overnight hours, bringing down dewpoints and temperatures in its wake. Since this is not a particularly strong front, we still expect high temperatures today to rise to around 70 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be moderate, out of the north at about 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight will be the coldest of the week, and perhaps for quite awhile across the region as we experience a warming trend going forward. Lows will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, and perhaps a degree or two colder in outlying areas. No one should see a freeze.

Tuesday

This should be another absolutely splendid day, with highs of around 70, or a bit warmer, and a lot more sunshine. Later in the day winds will turn more southerly, and that will begin the process of bringing more humid air into the region. Lows Tuesday night will be a 10 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday

By Wednesday morning I suspect we’ll start to see widespread sea fog developing as warmer air moves over colder bays and waterways. This could be a problem for several mornings through the weekend. Highs on Wednesday should reach the middle-70s despite increasing cloud cover, and lows in Houston may not drop below 60 degrees overnight.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week is somewhat uncertain given that the next cold front it scheduled to push toward Houston on Thursday, but stall somewhere. It might get all the way to Interstate 10, but I think the front will stall north of there. Accordingly, rain chances will be better along and north of I-10 on Thursday and Friday. Even then, accumulations should be only on the order of a quarter inch of rain. Depending on which side of the front you fall, highs will either be in the 60s (well inland) or upper 70s (most of Houston, probably). Nights in Houston will probably stay in the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Right now I don’t see much of a pattern change for the weekend. I think most of the region will be pretty warm, in the 70s at least, without much of a cooldown overnight. Rain chances will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent, and for the most part I think we’ll just see a lot of clouds.

Is winter over?

I really don’t want to tempt fate here, but the next 10 days or so do look pretty warm. If you’re looking around the killing fields—I mean, your garden and landscaping—you may be wondering if its safe to plant. If you live south of Interstate 10, I would bet heavily against seeing another freeze this season. But for inland areas, it’s just too early to offer such a guarantee.

And besides, it may be too early to determine whether some of your plants are truly dead. I like this advice from Texas A&M Agriculture Extension agent Larry Stein, who told the Houston Chronicle, “Obviously, we’re going to have some kind of damage, but the extent of it won’t be known for a while. We tell people to learn to like ugly. Basically, leave it ugly for a while … to give the plants time to recuperate and actually see the full extent of the damage.”

Good morning. We’re continuing to get closer to the end of this Arctic blast, but we’re not there yet. The remaining concerns are icy roads and bridges this morning, and the potential for a hard freeze tonight, and again Friday night for areas well inland. We also have an update on the region’s improving power situation.

Thursday

A band of light winter precipitation is falling north of Houston this morning, bringing sleet and snow flurries north of a line from Brenham to Conroe, and this will continue to move to the northeast. This morning, for the northern half of the region, we’ll continue to see some icy spots on roads and bridges with temperatures at or just above freezing. For Houston, today will be cold and breezy, with highs generally rising to the mid-30s to about 40 degrees, and mostly cloudy skies. Winds out of the north will keep wind chill values below freezing.

As the atmosphere dries out this afternoon and evening, and skies clear, temperatures will again plunge tonight. Lows are likely from 15 to 25 inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69, and even coastal areas will likely see lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. For inland areas, this will raise additional concerns about pipes.

Friday

This day will be warmer, with highs climbing into the low to mid-40s area wide, and plenty of sunshine. A persistent northerly wind will still keep wind chills on the cooler side, however. Lows Friday night will likely drop below freezing for inland areas again on Friday night, but will stay several degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and beyond

After Saturday morning we are finally done with the freezes. Highs Saturday should reach into the mid-50s, and by Sunday get into the 60s. A mild cool front will bring some slight rain chances into the region on Sunday night, and first half of next week looks quite decent. Highs will mostly be in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and 50s. We should continue to see plenty of sunshine. There are no additional Arctic fronts on the horizon.

Power

Power generating plants are finally coming back online and we’ve seen significant decreases in power outages overnight. As you may recall, about 4.4 million Texas households and businesses were without power on Tuesday morning, and that number was about 3 million on Wednesday. This morning, about 620,000 customers are without power across the state, and there have been significant improvements in the greater Houston area. (For example, about 120,000 of 160,000 customers in Galveston County remained without power on Wednesday. This morning, the number of outages is down to 8,600.) We can probably expect some rolling outages today and tomorrow, but the worst of this situation seems to be passing. Please, please continue to conserve power so that service may be restored to all.

Water

City of Houston officials have said they expect the city’s water system to become fully operational by the end of today. The boil water notice in effect for Houston, and many surrounding areas, is likely to continue for a longer period of time.

This week Houston has survived a freakish snow and ice storm, extreme cold, and bout of freezing rain. So what else does Old Man Winter have to throw our way? Well, my friends, there is just one last sting in the tail, then it looks like this mess will be over.

At least from the standpoint of weather—in terms of electricity and water, that is another issue entirely. As of this evening, about 2.3 million Texas homes and businesses remain without power, and about half of those are in the greater Houston area. For millions of your neighbors, the misery continues.

Wednesday night

In the wake of precipitation earlier today, cold air from yet another front is now moving into the Houston area. Temperatures will drop to freezing levels north of Interstate 10 tonight, and where ice or water remained on roads today, this will refreeze tonight. There is also the possibility of some light snow or sleet late tonight north of Interstate 10. In these areas you’ll need to watch for icy spots on roads through about noon on Thursday. Closer to the coast, a freeze is unlikely overnight.

Thursday and Thursday night

High temperatures on Thursday should get into the mid- to upper-30s. Brisk winds out of the north will knock wind chill temperatures below freezing. But at least we should be dry after lots of wintry precipitation. After a cloudy start, a bit of sunshine may peek out later in the afternoon on Thursday. This will be nice, but clearing skies also means we’ll see strong radiational cooling on Thursday night, with lows again dropping into the 20s on Thursday night.

It. damn. sure. would. be. nice. to. have. power. back. by. then. ERCOT.

Friday and beyond

After a cold start, sunshine should help temperatures warm into the low 40s on Friday, but with a northerly wind it will feel cold out all day. Low temperatures on Friday night will still be very cold, but should be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Highs on Saturday should push into the 50s, and the threat of a freeze will finally be over.