Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston’s wet pattern will continue through the work week, although the most organized heavy rainfall should wind down over the course of this morning after a storm system pushes through the area. Please take care if you have cause to be out and about this morning before conditions should improve later today.

Wednesday

Moisture continues to move in from the Gulf, combining with an upper-level storm system to bring heavy rains to the metro area on Wednesday morning. The heaviest rains are generally to the south of the city now, and this mess should slowly begin to slide generally eastward, exiting the area entirely by 9 a.m. or 10 a.m. In the meantime, these storms should put a manageable 1 to 3 inches of rain down for most of the metro area—with the heaviest rains coming and lingering near the coast.

Although this will end our Stage 1 flood event, the rain won’t be over. Even as the storm system rotates away from Houston, additional moisture will be pulled inland and more showers will likely develop this afternoon. We’re not sure about this, because the atmosphere should be somewhat stabilized after this morning. In any case, storms this afternoon should be less organized. Highs today will likely only reach the mid-80s with cloud cover and rain.

Thursday

Healthy rain chances continue on Thursday, with a higher likelihood of moderate-to-heavy rain along the coast where moisture levels should be highest. Accumulations should be less than on Wednesday, however. Temperatures should remain in the upper 80s for most with cloudy skies.

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Good afternoon. We’re continuing to monitor the threat of heavy rainfall during the overnight hours as a front sags into the Houston area, and stalls. And at this point, we believe this threat warrants a Stage 1 alert on the Space City Weather Flood Scale. However, we’re following the situation closely, and it may require an upgrade to Stage 2 this evening.

In anticipation of this threat, the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for the entire metro Houston area, in effect from 7 p.m. tonight through 7 a.m. Wednesday morning. In terms of overall accumulations, they are forecasting widespread totals of two to four inches of rain through tomorrow morning, with isolated areas of six to eight inches possible. This is reasonable. However, these kinds of potentially heavy rainfall events, with a slow-moving system and very high levels of atmospheric moisture, are notoriously hard to predict.

At this time we do not have much confidence in where the rains will be heaviest—it could be anywhere from south of the city to the northeast. The good news is that we expect the storms to begin to clear the area by around sunrise, or shortly thereafter. By then the atmosphere will probably be pretty worked over, and we think storm coverage should be less during the daytime on Wednesday.

Good morning. While we anticipated widespread rainfall on Monday, the intensity of the storms that developed over central Houston—in one area near downtown rainfall rates briefly exceeded a rate of 4 inches per hour—was not expected. Overall it’s a good reminder of the potential of heavy rainfall from the kinds of moist air we can see during summertime along the Gulf Coast. The potential for heavy rainfall will continue through Thursday, after which it should slacken some due to the arrival of Saharan dust.

Tuesday

We have all of the ingredients needed for heavy rainfall today, but we think storms will develop a little bit later in the day than on Monday. The first thing we’re watching is a complex of thunderstorms currently near the I-35 corridor that will move east into the Houston region later today. We expect this to weaken. Later this morning, showers should develop offshore, and move inland. And finally, tonight, a weak front will sag into Houston. Sadly this won’t bring any cooling, but it will serve as a focus for additional storm development.

Some models show this front moving slowly, and then hanging up along the coast. This could lead to a scenario where coastal counties pick up a fair amount of rain tonight and into Wednesday morning. Widespread rain totals for today and tonight will probably be about 1 to 3 inches for most of the area, but some isolated areas—most likely between Interstate 69 and the coast—may pick up as much as 5 additional inches of rain.

Wednesday

After whatever mess of storms that develops overnight weakens or moves off by around sunrise on Wednesday, it is possible that any new development later in the day will be more scattered in nature due to a worked-over atmosphere. Mostly cloudy skies should continue to keep temperatures in the upper 80s.

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Good morning. After rather boring weather last week, there are two significant weather issues to track this week. First up, as experienced by some parts of the city of Saturday and Sunday, is the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall due to moist air moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. Those rain chances should decline significantly by this weekend as Saharan dust—likely more intense than previous events of this nature—moves into the region.

Monday

The absence of high pressure and influx of moist Gulf of Mexico air will continue today. Like on Sunday, we should see the development of showers near the coast this morning. During the afternoon, these showers and thunderstorms will move inland and should spread out over much of the Houston area.

Most parts of the region that see rain will likely pick up less than one-half inch, but as we saw on Sunday, these storms have the potential to put down 2 to 3 inches of rain pretty quickly over small areas. Storms should weaken, if not go away entirely, as the sun sets. Clouds should help limit temperatures to around 90 degrees. Winds will be about 10 mph from the south, except inside storms when gusts could be substantially stronger.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Our wet and gray weather continues. This time, as moist air continues to stream inland, a storm system will move into Houston from west to east, likely reaching Houston during the afternoon or evening hours. This should enhance storm coverage, and we can expect around a 70 percent chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. On average, the city of Houston will likely receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, in total, through Wednesday. But again, we’re more concerned about isolated, higher totals due to the moisture available. Highs may struggle to reach 90 degrees given the cloud cover.

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