Eric Berger

Confidence growing in Texas impacts from TD 14 [Updated]

10:00am CT Update: The National Hurricane Center upgraded this system to Tropical Depression 14 on Thursday morning. Our forecast below remains accurate. Matt will be providing a big-picture update this afternoon.

Original post: This update will consist of both a short weather outlook about the rest of this week, and a longer section on the threat posed by the tropics. In short, the latest model guidance suggests an increased likelihood that Invest 97L may impact Texas, although much uncertainty remains. We’ll also have to keep an eye on Invest 98L, although this seems a bit more of a distant threat.

Thursday

Today’s weather will be a lot like Wednesday’s, which is to say hot and sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. With slightly drier air in the region, conditions won’t feel quite so humid this morning or this evening, but as an easterly, and southeasterly wind develops this afternoon we’ll feel the beginnings of an onshore flow. A few stray showers may develop near the coast today. Low temperatures will fall into the mid- to upper-70s.

Yep, it will be hot again on Thursday in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Honestly, we don’t anticipate a whole lot changes with our weather and this August-like pattern, except that the onshore flow will return more humidity at the surface. We’re going to see hot days in the mid-to-upper 90s with oodles of sunshine and only very slight rain chances with coastal counties the most likely areas to see precipitation.

Next week

Our weather next week will depend to a large extent on Invest 97L, but the bottom line is that we may see increasing rain chances by Monday or Monday night. This is probably a good time now to talk tropics.

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Our latest forecast for Invest 97L is basically a shrug emoji

Good afternoon. We’re continuing to follow activity in the tropics, and are focusing on Invest 97L. This is because it is the closer system and more immediate “threat.” That said, I’m afraid there’s not much useful intelligence we can share. In terms of track and intensity all options remain on the table. Here’s what we know:

As of this afternoon, Invest 97L is located almost due south of Hispaniola, and is a rather disorganized area of storms. Although it faces some difficulty with wind shear and dry air, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center predict there is an 80 percent chance this system will at least become a tropical depression, if not more organized over the coming five days.

Satellite appearance of 97L at 2:20 pm CT Wednesday. (NOAA)

Another factor is a disturbance over South America, which may interact with 97L as it nears Central America (you can see clouds related to this in the satellite image above). All of these variables mean that we have relatively little confidence in how strong the system may get between now and the weekend. I don’t think it will get much beyond a low-end tropical storm in the Caribbean, but the tropics do love to surprise us.

In terms of track we have lots of questions, too. The existing trough over the southern United States would normally pull a system like this northward, into the Central Gulf of Mexico, and toward Louisiana or the Florida Panhandle. However, that trough is forecast to weaken. As that happens the Bermuda High pressure system over the Atlantic is expected to expand westward. So there is a fairly narrow window for 97L to get pulled north. Still, this is the solution favored by models such as the HWRF, shown below, which brings a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane to the Florida Panhandle late on Sunday.

HWRF model forecast for Invest 97L at 10 pm CT Sunday. (Weather Bell)

What seems a little bit more likely to me is that the system pushes into the Yucatan Peninsula and then emerges into the Bay of Campeche on Sunday. From there it could plow due west into Mexico, or take a more northwesterly track toward Texas. Most of the modeling, at this point, shows little intensification of 97L along such a track due to variety of factors. But with that said, you never want to see a low pressure system in the warm Gulf of Mexico in August. Like, ever.

Some early 18z model track model guidance. We are showing this only to illustrate the broad range of possibilities. (Weather Bell)

So what happens? The model guidance is of little help and, unfortunately, neither are we until 97L forms a better center, and we get a better sense of some of the factors mentioned above. If something were to eventually track toward Texas the earliest we probably would see effects is Monday or Tuesday. Our advice, as always, is be prepared, not worried.

Hot and sunny through the weekend—then it’s up to the tropics

Houston’s weather for the next several days will be influenced by high pressure to our west, and a slightly drier atmosphere thanks to a more northerly flow. By this weekend our eyes will turn toward the Gulf of Mexico, and the potential for a tropical system to disrupt our weather. We still have a lot of questions about Invest 97L in terms of intensity and track, but it seems clear that this tropical wave will move into the Gulf of Mexico. More below.

Wednesday’s highs in Texas — it could be worse in August. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday

Conditions will be quite warm today as a northerly flow continues to bring slightly drier air into the region. Dry air warms faster, so we can probably expect highs to reach into the upper 90s for most of the metro area. Rain chances remain near zero with the abundance of dry air. Our evening and overnight weather should again feel slightly drier, although the effect will be more pronounced for inland areas. For August, we can’t complain.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern remains more or less the same for the rest of the work week, although we anticipate winds turning from the north to the east on Thursday, and this will slowly modify our air mass to become a bit more moist. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-90s, which should not be too extreme. Lows should fall into the mid-70s, which is tolerably pleasant for the depths of August. A few stray showers may develop near the coast on these days, but we don’t anticipate any organized rainfall.

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Our weather: Mostly dry and plenty hot, with a wary eye on the tropics

Good morning. A front is having subtle effects on Houston’s weather, but we’re still going to be plenty hot in the coming days. High temperatures should moderate slightly by the weekend, but we’re still looking at mostly sunny weather for several days. Next week our weather will be guided, to some extent at least, by any tropical systems that move into the Gulf of Mexico. We’re not seeing any direct threats, at least not yet, and Matt will have a full rundown later today on the tropical state of play.

Low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be slightly cooler than we’ve been seeing for most of August. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

Expect hot and sunny conditions to prevail, with highs pushing into the upper 90s to 100 degrees this afternoon as drier air helps with warming. Despite the drier air, models are picking up a slug of moisture in the lower atmosphere that may help to generate some scattered showers primarily on the western half of the metro area later today. This should be pushed away by this evening as additional dry air continues to move in, both at the surface and above. This should set the stage for a slightly cooler night, with lows dropping into the mid-70s across much of the city. The coast, alas, is still going to see pretty normal humidity for this time of year.

Wednesday

This will be a hot and sunny day, with drier air in evidence. Expect highs in the upper 90s, with sunny skies and light winds out of the north. Temperatures should again moderate reasonably quickly as the sun sets, and drier help helps.

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