Eric Berger

Good morning. We’re seeing some of the region’s coolest temperatures of November this morning, with lows in the 30s for outlying areas, and 40s in the city of Houston. We will see a gradual warming trend heading into the weekend, but after that the forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Note: Tomorrow’s post will arrive an hour or two late, which seems OK because not much is happening with our weather.

Tuesday

Conditions today will offer another fall delight for the Houston metro area, as sunny skies nudge high temperatures into the mid-70s. With light northeast winds, our air will remain very dry by Houston standards, as dewpoints crash into the 30s again this afternoon. This will not last, of course, but the region should experience one more cool evening, with temperatures perhaps a 3 to 5 degrees warmer Tuesday night than Monday.

Wednesday

Winds will shift to come more from the east on Wednesday, but this still will be another pleasant day with sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. Lows on Wednesday night, however, may not fall below 60 for much of the region.

Thursday and Friday

The onshore flow begins to kick in on Thursday, bringing the region a pair of partly sunny days to end the work week, with highs around 80 degrees, give or take. Lows generally will be in the 60s as some humidity returns.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend should continue the trend, in terms of partly to mostly sunny days, with highs in the general vicinity of 80 degrees. We can’t entirely rule out some rain showers, although chances for both days are probably only about 20 percent.

Next week

I’d love to be able to give you a confident forecast for next week, including the Thanksgiving holiday. Unfortunately, the pattern is not at all clear, and the model guidance is all over the place. Our first uncertainty is the progression of a cool front on Sunday night or Monday. How far does it get?

This may be another one of those situations where a front gets close to Houston and stalls, or actually makes it all the way to the coast. The next question is whether a reinforcing front makes it to Houston around Wednesday, and pushes all the way through. The latest, high resolution run of the European model, shown below, suggests that no fronts make it over the next 10 days, which would lead to a steamy Thanksgiving.

I don’t think this is going to happen, as I bet at least one front makes it through the region next week by Wednesday or so, and this probably would bring us cooler and drier weather for the holiday weekend. There is some support for this even in the European model’s ensembles, which I’ve included below. The bottom line is that we’re just going to have to wait a day or two, at least, to get some clarity.

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It is quite a cool morning across the region, with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s far north of Houston—in places such as Conroe and Huntsville—to the 50s right along the coast. We’ll enjoy very dry air through about Wednesday before a warming trend begins heading into the weekend.

Monday

Ample sunshine will help our region warm into the low- to mid-70s today. With high pressure dominating our area, winds will be light, out of the northeast. We can expect another chilly night, with temperatures dropping down to about the same levels on Monday night as Sunday night.

Tuesday

This will be another sunny, cool day. Highs may be a degree or two warmer than on Monday, but as our light winds begin to veer and come from the east, temperatures Tuesday night will begin to moderate a bit. I would anticipate lows in the mid-50s in Houston—warmer near the coast, and cooler inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

As the onshore flow becomes slightly more pronounced during the second half of the week, our temperatures will warm, and humidity levels will begin to creep up. By Friday, we should see high temperatures near 80 degrees, with lows only dropping into the mid-60s. Skies should remain mostly sunny throughout the week.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend may see some more clouds, and possibly some rain chances. Right now I’d ballpark highs near 80 degrees, with a 20 percent chance of rain on Saturday, and somewhat higher chances later on Sunday or Sunday night. That’s when I think—emphasis on think, because there’s not agreement yet, and it’s a ways out—our next front will push through. There is a healthy signal for some rainfall with this front, but it’s far too early to say this with any confidence. Certainly, we could use the rain.

Next week and Thanksgiving

Most of the modeling guidance suggests we’ll warm up fairly quickly for the front, so unless another front arrives by the middle of next week we may be looking at a warm Turkey Day, with highs in the upper 70s perhaps. However I think there’s a reasonable chance another front will make it in time for Thanksgiving, to allow for a more festive feel outside. We shall see.

Tropics

Hurricane Iota is not going to come near the Gulf of Mexico, but the rapidly intensifying storm is nonetheless worth noting because it will make landfall in very nearly the same location of Honduras tonight as Hurricane Eta made two weeks ago. We have seen explosive intensification of this storm, and Iota now has 155-mph winds. This will bring destructive winds and flooding to Central America. Just terrible.

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Good morning! Dry air has backed into pretty much the entirety of the region this morning, with the exception of Galveston Island and areas far to the southwest of Houston, such as Matagorda and Bay City. The map below shows the sharp contrast in dewpoints shortly before sunrise this morning. Drier air will linger through Friday before a more humid Friday night and Saturday. A front arrives Sunday to bring more fall-like weather to the region.

Thursday

Ample sunshine and drier air should help high temperatures climb into the low- to mid-80s today, with a light northeast wind. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 60 in the city of Houston—with warmer temperatures along the coast, and cooler ones inland.

Friday

As winds shift to the southeast on Thursday night into Friday, we’ll start to see moisture levels begin to rise. This may lead to a handful of clouds, and we expect highs on Friday to reach the low 80s. Temperatures Friday night will be three to five degrees warmer than the region experienced Thursday night.

Saturday

The onshore flow will become more pronounced on Saturday, and so we’re likely facing a humid day, with highs in the low- to mid-80s beneath mostly sunny skies. Eventually, the onshore flow should bring to produce more clouds, and Saturday night looks quite warm with overnight lows in a lot of areas possibly not dropping below 70 degrees. For November, that’s sticky.

Sunday

Finally, there is some good general agreement in the forecast models about the timing of our region’s next front. It should reach far northwestern areas of the region—looking at you, Brenham—by around sunrise, push into the city by mid-morning, and reach the coast around noon. There is the possibility of some light rain showers with this front, but they won’t last as much drier air moves in behind. This front won’t be super cold—we’re likely looking at a few days with highs around 70s, and lows around 50—but the drier air will banish humidity for awhile. Dewpoints in the 30s are no joke.

Next week

By Wednesday or so of next week, we should see a gradual warm-up heading into next weekend—perhaps into the upper 70s. As for precipitation, I’m afraid there does not appear to be much of that in the forecast for the next week or 10 days. We sure could use some—one good rain would go a long ways with our cooler weather.

Good morning. Normal high temperatures for mid-November generally run in the low 70s for Houston, with overnight lows in low 50s. For much of the city—with the exception of some outlying areas far from the coast—we are going to run about 10 degrees above this through Sunday before our next robust front arrives. That’s OK if you like warm days, but bad news if you’re eager to wear a sweater.

Wednesday

A weak front has made it through most of the region and will limp off the coast later this morning. As the air dries out behind the front we should see our cloudy skies turn more sunny. Highs should reach into the low 80s today, but the night will feel more crisp thanks to the front. Expect lows to drop down to around 60 degrees for the city, with cooler temperatures inland, and a bit warmer closer to the coast. Winds will be out of the northeast at generally 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday and Friday

A generally northeast and then easterly flow should keep some of the humidity at bay, and as a result we can expect a pair of quite nice, sunny days. We should see highs in the low 80s, and with the dry air helping to drop overnight lows in the low 60s for most.

Saturday and Sunday

As winds shift to the southeast, we can expect rising humidity levels this weekend. Mostly sunny skies should help nudge daytime highs into the mid-80s, and Saturday night should be warmer for most, perhaps nearing 70 for some areas. Sunday should be mostly sunny again, but then a front will sweep through. Timing is still to be determined, but it probably will come through some time during the afternoon and overnight hours. The moisture profile with this front is not overly impressive, so I don’t think we’ll get the rains we need as it passes.

Next week

This week should definitely feel more fall like, with highs generally in the 70s, and lows in the 50s in Houston—and perhaps in the 40s for areas further inland.

Tropics

We’re still tracking Eta, Theta, and soon … Iota? Eta has become a Category 1 hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, but it should begin to weaken in the next 24 hours as it encounters more hostile wind shear. It will be a rainstorm, primarily, for Florida as it crosses the peninsula on Thursday and then begins to head toward the exits. (Yes, there finally is some confidence in the storm’s track). Theta seems unlikely to threaten major landmasses. When it forms in a few days, Iota most likely will track into Central America, and not reemerge as Eta did.