Eric Berger

Good morning. If you were surprised by the widespread nature of showers and storms on Saturday and Saturday evening, you’re not alone. The forecast for Saturday—we expected sunshine and dry air to prevail—was a total bust. Matt did an analysis of the event on Twitter, and summarized the situation as follows, “Yesterday in Houston was one of the most impressive forecasting busts I’ve witnessed & been part of in a long while.” Needless to say, we’ll learn from this.

Monday

Houston is enjoying a pleasant morning, with lows down near 60 degrees in the city. Today should be another sunny affair, with highs pushing into the mid-80s. Humidity will be much more noticeable, as winds really pick up from the south, possibly gusting to 20mph. As a result of this more southerly flow, clouds should build tonight, and this should help prevent low temperatures from falling much below 70 for the area.

Tuesday

Clouds will remain on Tuesday, but highs will still get into the mid- to upper-80s as a warmer pattern prevails. Winds will still be active, blowing out of the south at about 15mph. A few scattered showers are possible Tuesday, but the better rain chances will probably hold off until the overnight hours.

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Well, some days Mother Nature can still surprise you.

As late as last night it appeared the atmosphere would dry out at all levels in the wake of Friday night’s cool front. However, that has not happened sufficiently. As a result, a fast-moving kink in the atmosphere will cross Houston from west-to east from around 1pm to 4pm today, and have enough moisture to work with to produce storms. The threat is briefly heavy rainfall and hail.

The storms should clear the area quickly, and we expect mostly sunny weather before and after, with a pleasantly cool evening. Low temperatures on Sunday should drop into the upper 50s for areas north of Houston, and we do expect a fully sunny day for the second half of the weekend.

Good morning. Storms passed to the north of Houston on Wednesday evening, and the severe weather produced one particularly strong tornado that touched down just north of Huntsville and Livingston, striking the community of Onalaska hard. Meteorologists from the National Weather Service will investigate the location today to determine the intensity of the tornado and its path.

Local residents described the tornado as “devastating,” and at least three people were killed. As most of us went to bed last night, this small community was looking for lost people, assessing injuries, and finding temporary shelter outside their damaged or destroyed homes. Tornadoes this strong in the greater Houston region are rare, but possible. The following image shows the storm’s path as indicated by rotation on radar.

The entire Houston metro area will now settle into a much more sedate weather pattern, with sunny weather for days and days.

Thursday

A cool front is moving into Houston this morning, and this will help drop moisture levels today. This, in turn should help to clear skies by mid- to late-morning. Light winds will blow out of the north. This afternoon, high temperatures will reach the mid- to upper-80s under sunny skies. As the sun dips toward the horizon tonight, we’ll be in for a real treat as the drier air allows temperatures to drop into the 70s and then 60s overnight.

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Houston will see the threat of severe weather this afternoon and early evening as a storm system moves through the region, ahead of a cool front. After this we expect several days of dry, sunny weather to dominate the region. It will be warm, but not too warm for late spring, with some reasonably cool nights this weekend.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are in the mid-70s, with cloudy skies. Unlike Monday and Tuesday, however, we won’t experience much if any clearing skies later today. Instead, the region will see an increasing chance of storms. The bigger threat lies north of the metro area, over areas such as Lufkin and Waco, but almost the entire Houston region faces a “slight” chance of hail and damaging winds. The rain chances with this storm system are pretty meager for Houston, especially areas south of Interstate 10, as the capping inversion may prove unbreakable. That’s unfortunate, because there are a lot of dry areas such as Brazoria County that could use some precipitation and probably won’t get much, if any with this system.

Thursday

A secondary, thin and broken line of showers may pass through the area early Thursday before sunrise along with the cool front itself. In its wake, we should see clearing skies and highs in the mid-80s on Thursday. Lows will drop into the mid-60s.

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