Eric Berger

Good morning. We’re now into the second week of September. A few of us had a friendly debate on Twitter this weekend about whether August or September was the worst month of the year in Houston, weather-wise. I’m definitely on Team August, for the simple reason that at least in September there is hope for a front and a hint of fall. Matt and several others said September is the worst for the very reason that some semblance of fall should be here in September, but it often is not. So what do you think? In any case, this week will be difficult as we watch a dying front approach the area, but likely not make a significant impact on our weather.

Tuesday

For some, this will be quite a wet day. We should see on-and-off rain showers across much of the area with a moist air mass and small feature in the atmosphere that will promote rising air. Some areas may see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, while others see little to no precipitation from these hit-and-miss showers. Where it’s not raining, partly sunny skies should help to push high temperatures into the low-90s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 70s to around 80 right along the coast. Winds will be light out of the southeast.

Wednesday

This is another potentially wet day as the overall air mass remains fairly unsettled upstream, with a fairly strong front pushing into Texas. This may help generate some additional showers and thunderstorms over the Houston area, keeping highs again to around 90 degrees or perhaps a little bit higher.

See full post

Hi everyone—just a quick Labor Day morning update here.

We’ve got some good news and some bad news, and we’ll start with the latter. If you’ll recall last week, we were 50-50 on whether a fairly robust cool front would push through the region. Alas, we’re now pretty confident it won’t make it. Summer, such as it is in Houston, will continue for awhile longer, albeit with highs mostly in the low 90s rather than the mid- or upper 90s.

The good news is that although we’re on the cusp of two more named storms forming in the Atlantic tropics, continuing this hurricane season’s record pace, we see no threats to the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days at least. This week is the historical peak of hurricane season, and for Texas the threat should be ebbing in about three or four weeks.

As for our weather this week, Labor Day will see a fair amount of sunshine and highs warming into the mid-90s. With slightly weaker high pressure over the region, some slow-moving showers and thunderstorms could produce 1 or more inches of rainfall today, but things will again be hit or miss. Tuesday should be similar.

The latter half of the week will be influenced by a cold front dropping into Texas and approaching our region. However, with the front likely stalling out around the Interstate 35 corridor, we only expect very slight effects locally. For now we’ll go with highs in the low 90s, and with lows dropping into the mid-70s, and a smattering of rain chances.

We’ll be back tomorrow with a full update!

The watchword for Houston’s weather in the coming days is uncertainty—with the main questions concerning whether it will rain locally over the next few days, and whether a front will push through Houston on Wednesday or so of next week.

Thursday

It’s going to be another very warm day along the coast, with highs in the 90s and heat indices pushing into the low 100s. High temperatures elsewhere will likely get into the mid-90s, tempered somewhat by more clouds in the sky. Forecast models are pretty inconsistent, but given the available moisture in the atmosphere I’d guess about one-third of the area sees some form of light to moderate precipitation later today. This should help moderate temperatures slightly.

Friday and Saturday

By Friday, a nearby upper-level system in conjunction with a weaker capping inversion should increase coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms to 40 or 50 percent. These will most likely occur later during the afternoon hours, with the peak of daytime heating. I still think skies will be at least partly sunny, and we can probably expect highs to get into the mid-90s. Overnight lows will remain sticky and warm, in the upper 70s except immediately along the coast.

Sunday and Labor Day

The second half of Labor Day weekend will likely see more sunshine as high pressure amplifies a bit. Expect a pair of warm, summer days with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid- or upper-90s. We’re not going to rule out some scattered showers along the sea breeze, however.

Will the front make it?

Oh, my friends. I would love nothing more than to tell you that fall’s first cold front will definitely come barreling into Houston six days from now. But the fact of the matter is that this possibility hinges the strength of a ridge of high pressure near Canada and Alaska early next week, and the extent to which a trough of cooler air can penetrate into the central United States. Right now the models are parsing a pretty fine line on whether that happens or not to allow cooler air to make its way all the way down to us—so we’re sticking to our 50-50 prediction of whether a front makes it.

Good morning. The main story of our weather continues to be heat—Houston’s high temperatures for most of the last week have reached 99 degrees or above—but after today our hottest weather and extreme heat indices should be in the rear view mirror. We expect to see a few more clouds today, and then better rain chances starting tomorrow should help to temper our peak daytime heating just a bit.

Wednesday

A large complex of storms that has produced several inches of rainfall over North Texas should continue to sag southward this morning. But most likely these storms will stall out to the northwest of our area—the rains will probably reach a line from Sealy to Conroe before dying out. Areas northwest and along this line may see some additional on and off rainfall through this evening. Otherwise it should be a partly to mostly sunny day for most of the metro area, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Winds will again blow from the south, gusting perhaps to 20 mph due to a tight pressure gradient.

Thursday

As more moisture moves into the atmosphere we’re likely to see more clouds on Thursday, and this should help to moderate temperatures slightly. At least some scattered showers will be possible as highs get into the low- to mid-90s. Nighttime lows will remain sticky, in the upper 70s.

Friday

A bit more of a disturbed atmosphere on Friday, in conjunction with ample moisture in the atmosphere, should lead to more widespread showers on Friday. Accumulations will likely vary widely across the region. Highs will depend upon the extent of rainfall at your location.

Saturday, Sunday, and Labor Day

The weekend weather looks fairly standard for this time of year, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-90s most likely. We’ll have some decent rain chances—perhaps 30 percent?–each day along the sea breeze.

Next week

We’re still watching the potential for a fairly robust cool front to arrive in Houston later on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. If it makes it, this front will provide a nice shot of drier and cooler air, but it remains too close to call or guarantee a week out.

Laura wrap-up

As some of you may know, for my day job I write for a publication called Ars Technica. On Tuesday, we published a feature on Hurricane Laura, and the very close call on whether the region enacted a more widespread evacuation. And it was very close.