Eric Berger

We’ve survived August—if only barely

Well, we made it. August has ended. You may recall at the outset of this month I wrote that August was a month to survive in Houston: “If you’re in Houston in August and the high temperature is not in the upper 90s or higher, the streets aren’t flooding, and you’re not concerned about an impending hurricane—it’s a win.” Alas we didn’t do much winning in August. The daily high temperature was 98 degrees or higher on 15 days last month, and we spent about 10 days worrying about an impending hurricane. So August was August, and now, at least, it’s over.

It’s going to be very hot again on Tuesday in Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

September won’t bring immediate change to Houston in terms of temperatures, but we do still expect a pattern shift in about nine or 10 days time. Alas, Houston will remain under a heat advisory on Tuesday, with high temperatures in the upper-90s across much of the region and sultry humidity pushing the heat index to 110 degrees or higher for much of the region. Skies will be mostly sunny. Let’s be honest, this is pretty oppressive weather—the only very slight relief will come from a southerly breeze, which may at times gust above 20 mph. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday and Thursday

For now we’ll go with continued hot and mostly sunny weather for these days, and additional heat advisories will probably be warranted for the Houston metro area. The one wrinkle is that an upper-level low pressure system and a cold front over North Texas may help spur a few showers in Houston, but for now I think we’ll remain dry. The best bet is on continued heat and sunshine. We do have some concerns for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area and this system, as it could bring 6 inches of rain or more through Thursday, which may lead to some localized flooding in central and northern Texas between now and Thursday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend remains a bit uncertain as some tropical moisture may move in from the Gulf of Mexico. This may elevate rain chances to on the order of about 30 percent each day, but for the most part I expect Houston to remain hot, in the mid-90s, and partly to mostly sunny. We’ll try to pin this forecast down in the next day or so.

Yes, the front is still there in both the GFS (shown) and European models. (Weather Bell)

Next week

We’re still looking at the possibility of a pretty decent cold front by Wednesday or so of next week. We are making no promises—early season fronts often fail to materialize—but this feature remains fairly consistent within the models. If it happens, we can probably expect a nice shot of rainfall, before drier and cooler air moves in. Should the front happen, it probably would bring a couple of days of highs in the 80s, with lows in the 60s. So, fingers crossed, Houston. All of them.

So, this is pretty miserable. How much longer will summer last?

Lost amid the concern about Hurricane Laura over the last week is that summer pretty much has chugged along and late August in Houston is doing late August things. Saturday’s high temperature reached 101 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and the dew points of around 80 degrees on some recent mornings have just been gross. The question in everyone’s mind, therefore, is when will it end? The flippant answer for long-time Houston residents is November. But the real answer is that, just maybe, we’re about 10 days away from the region’s first real cool front.

August, as usual, has been quite hot and humid. (National Weather Service)

As we’ll discuss in the post below, our weather for the next week remains hot. But about 10 days from now there are hints in the global models of a decently strong cold front arriving in the Houston area. There are a couple of reasons for skepticism: We get a lot of “mirage” fronts popping up in the models at this time of year that falsely advertise the arrival of cool fronts, and this one would be about two weeks earlier than normal for Houston. On the other hand, this front has been fairly consistent in the model forecasts. At this point, therefore, I would say there is about a 50 percent chance of a nice front pushing into Houston about 10 days from now. That is not a guarantee.

European ensemble model for forecast lows through Monday, September 15. (Weather Bell)

Monday

Welcome to a new week, with plenty of more heat. Today will see partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Some moisture has surged into the region, and this probably will be enough to generate some short-lived showers and thunderstorms for about 30 percent of the area. Southerly winds will be noticeable, gusting to about 20 mph. Unless showers cool you off this afternoon, expect high temperatures to get into the mid- to upper-90s. Overnight temperatures will remain very sticky.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

For now we don’t anticipate a whole lot of variance across these three days with partly to mostly sunny skies and daily highs in the mid-90s. We can’t entirely rule out some showers on the northwest or northern periphery of the Houston metro area, but for the most part we’re going to see no rain. Nights will be sticky and warm.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

By this weekend some clouds enter the forecast and a front over north Texas may help to generate some showers over Houston. But for now the weekend forecast remains fairly uncertain—except for the fact that we can probably count on plenty of heat.

Five-day tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center at 7am CT Monday.

Tropics

I wrote a quick post about the tropics on Sunday, and our general thinking remains the same. While there are lots of areas of interest across the Atlantic Basin today, we still don’t see too much to be concerned about when it comes to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Matt will have more in his weekly tropics post on Tuesday.

Yes, the tropics remain very active—but we don’t see any immediate Gulf threats

Just a quick update on Sunday morning to note the Christmas-tree like appearance of the National Hurricane Center’s Five-day tropical outlook. In the wake of Hurricane Laura this map may cause some anxiety, but the message we want to leave with you is that none of these systems—for the time being at least—really appear to be a big threat to the Texas coast.

The National Hurricane Center tropical outlook for Sunday, 7am CT.

Let’s quickly run through them.

System One: On the face of it, this tropical wave moving through the Caribbean Sea would appear to be the biggest threat as it is closest, and we often see these systems turn pole-ward as they approach Central America. However for this tropical system we’re not convinced it will develop at all, and even if it does it most likely will continue plowing westward into Belize or Honduras. Here is the European ensemble forecast for the track of this system:

European model ensemble forecast for now through Wednesday night. (Weathernerds.org)

System Two: It is difficult to say whether this wave will develop, although its certainly possible. None of the forecast models are overly excited about this one, however.

System Three: This low-pressure system originated in the northwest Gulf of Mexico late last week, and is now crossing Florida. It probably will become a named storm (Nana is the next name) in the Atlantic, moving away from the United States. It will not threaten any major landmasses.

System Four: The forecast models are more bullish on this becoming a pretty well defined tropical system in about a week or so over the open Atlantic. It’s difficult to say where it would go after that, but most of the available evidence suggests it probably will not move toward the Gulf of Mexico. But as always, confidence in forecasts drops off after about 7 days.

Other threats: The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season comes in about 10 days from now, and we are seeing indications that several more potent tropical waves will move off of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean over the next couple of weeks. All of these will have to be watched. There is also the potential for something to develop in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico) around 8 to 10 days from now that is worth watching. However any mischief there moving north is far from guaranteed—in fact a greater likelihood at this time is that our first fall front may be moving toward the region at that time. Cross your fingers!

So please: Be watchful of the tropics, and be wary. But at this time you should not be overly worried.

As Laura pulls away, we may see some fleeing showers later today and Friday

Well, it’s over for the coast. After making landfall early Thursday morning at Cameron, Louisiana, Hurricane Laura has continued to move northward at a fast clip, about 15 mph. At 7 am CT the center was located near Fort Polk, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Sometime later today or this evening Matt will be along to provide a roundup of its many, many damages. Some of the first-light images this morning show about what you would expect.

Now, for a change, we’ll actually do a forecast for Houston rather than focusing exclusively on the tropics. If you’re new to the site, most of the time, we provide a once-a-day forecast on weekday mornings. (Because, hey, sometimes there’s only so much you can write about Houston’s weather when it’s hot, sunny, and humid). As ever, if inclement weather threatens, we’re here 24/7. Since that is no longer the case, we’ll return to our regular programming.

Thursday

As Laura pulls away from the Gulf coast Houston is seeing a dry, northwesterly flow. This has made dewpoints a few degrees lower this morning across the region, at the surface. We’re going to see some clouds today, but despite this, thanks to the drier flow, it’s still going to get plenty hot. Look for low to mid-90s near the coast, and upper 90s inland. For coastal areas, after astronomical high tides occur this morning, we expect any residual high water to recede. Rain chances will remain near zero until late this afternoon or the overnight hours, but even then will remain quite low.

Friday

This day offers the best chance of rain, as Laura pulls away and the onshore flow resumes. The following map of precipitable water shows the center of Laura on Friday shortly afternoon, and the trailing remnants of moisture that may produce some showers and thunderstorms over Houston. I’d rate rain chances at 40 to 50 percent, better to the east than west, and accumulations don’t look overly impressive.

Precipitable water forecast for 1pm CT Friday. (Weather Bell)

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, on Friday but the increased moisture should help limit temperatures into the mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Our weekend forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. We think there will be enough residual moisture along the coast to generate at least some scattered showers. But I don’t think we’re going to get the kinds of widespread showers the region sort of needs after a mostly quite dry August. (In this sense, while Laura’s more eastward track saved Houston from any significant winds, it also kept a decent shot of rainfall away). In any case, most outdoor activities should be fine, just have a plan to deal with a passing shower.

Next week and beyond

The first week of September looks fairly hot and sunny—standard fare for this part of the year. As for rain, there will be some, but probably not much. Some of the models are starting to flirt with a cool front reaching Houston by around September 10, but there are so many “mirage” fronts at this time of year I’m not buying it for now.

Tropics

Beyond Laura we’re seeing the potential for more activity, but there are no imminent threats to the Gulf or Caribbean so let’s just all breathe a sigh of relief. We’ve got another four or five weeks to get through and then we’re really into fall.