Eric Berger

Good morning. Confidence is increasing in the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening in Houston. The primary threats from this will be strong thunderstorms, and the potential for large hail and downbursts. The chances for hail and damaging winds are better for the western half of the metro area.

Thursday

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, with temperatures in the 70s. Clouds will remain as highs work their way into the upper 80s this afternoon. Storms are likely to get organized off to the west and north of Houston late this afternoon, and shift into the metro area from about 5pm to 10pm tonight. While most of the region probably will get around 1 inch of rain, or less, these storms have the potential to pretty quickly drop 3 or more inches in some locations. Therefore it is possible we will see some brief street flooding later this evening. The front should exit off the coast, along with the heavier rainfall, by or before midnight.

Friday

A few light showers may be possible Friday morning before sunrise, but for the most part we can probably expect mostly cloudy skies transitioning to some sunshine during the afternoon hours. With forecast highs in the mid-70s and lower humidity, this could turn into a fairly nice spring-like day. Which is good, because Saturday probably won’t be so nice.

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I was pleasantly surprised to be wrong on Tuesday night. I expected mostly cloudy skies to preclude local sightings of the full Moon—dubbed a supermoon by some because it is the closest full Moon of 2020, about 7 percent larger than a regular full Moon. However skies for the first couple of hours after sunset were clear, affording an amazing view of our heavenly companion. I hope you were able to enjoy it as well.

Wednesday

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, with warm temperatures in the mid-70s. A few very scattered, light showers are possible before noon, but we should see some partial clearing of our skies this afternoon. This, in concert with a strong southwesterly flow aloft, will bring the region’s warmest day of the week. Depending on how much sunshine we see, highs will range from the mid-80s to low-90s across the region. Clouds should build again during the overnight hours, with another warm night in the 70s.

Thursday

This has the potential to be a more dynamic day, with an approaching cold front. This front, in concert with a disturbed upper atmosphere, will bring a healthy chance of showers to the region, along with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms and possibly hail. In terms of timing, my best guess right now is the afternoon through Thursday night, but hopefully we’ll get some clarity on this over the next 24 hours. In any case, Thursday will be cloudy, with highs in the 80s. The front arrives during the overnight hours.

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Good morning. Houston is headed toward a period of three very warm days before somewhat more moderate temperatures this weekend. But in case you feared that spring has entirely fled the region, we are reasonably confident that a fairly strong outbreak of cooler weather will arrive next week. Texas will mostly lie in the southern periphery of much colder temperatures for the United States, but we should still see a few nights in the 50s—and I’m not ruling out the 40s, either—about a week from today.

Tuesday

This morning is starting off foggy, but this should burn off by around 9am. After the fog goes away we’ll be left with a mostly cloudy and warm day. Winds at the surface will be light, out of the south or southwest, but if we go a little higher in the atmosphere we can see a pronounced southwesterly flow. This movement of warmer air into the region (see satellite image from early this morning below) will really help drive warmer temperatures. Highs Tuesday should get into the mid- to upper-80s, and overnight lows are unlikely to drop below 70. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday

After a cloudy start, we expect some sunshine to break through on Wednesday afternoon. With partly sunny skies, we probably will see high temperatures nudge up to near 90 degrees, if not hit that plateau. Expect another warm night.

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Good morning. All in all, it ended up being a pretty darn nice weekend in Houston. On Friday and Saturday, much of the region got 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. We haven’t talked about it too much here, but the rainfall was really needed with much of the region under a moderate-to-severe drought (see below), and more warm weather on the way. Then, Sunday, was a pleasant spring-like day with a cool start and more sunshine that we originally expected. So, all-in-all, a good couple of days.

Monday

The weak front that pushed into Houston this weekend is pulling back to the north, and this will help introduce a slight chance of showers into the forecast today. But mostly, skies will simply be cloudy, with rising humidity levels, and temperatures near 80 degrees. Winds will turn from the north to southeast throughout the day, remaining fairly light. Don’t expect much of a cool down Monday night, as insulating clouds and the warmer flow will keep lows at about 70 degrees.

Tuesday

This day will be a lot like Monday, albeit a few degrees warmer, with highs edging into the mid-80s. Again, we’ll see the possibility for some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the absence of high pressure. Expect another warmer night.

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