Eric Berger

Houston’s forecast will continue to be a gray, wet mess for the next couple of days before sunshine returns on Thursday. Unfortunately, this sunny weather will be short-lived with the return of clouds and some rain showers as early as Saturday.

Tuesday

A cold front has pushed just offshore, leading to northerly winds across the metro area and temperatures ranging from the mid-40s north of the city to around 60 degrees right along the coast this morning. The front will slowly lift back to the north today, allowing winds to shift to come from the east. To be frank, it’s not clear how slowly this front will pull back today, and so our temperature forecast is somewhat uncertain. Generally highs will probably get into the low 60s across the region, although areas north and west of Houston will be cooler.

Skies will remain gray today, with the possibility of light rain. We can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but for the most part any showers in Houston today should be light as they move from west to east. Accumulations for most will be about a tenth of an inch or less. Low temperatures tonight will probably only fall a few degrees from daytime highs.

Wednesday

Frankly, we have a lot of questions about Wednesday’s weather as well, because there is just not great agreement on when the next strong front pushes into Houston and off the coast. Highs on Wednesday will likely get somewhere into the 60s, but again there could be a pretty sizable difference in temperatures between west (cooler) and east Houston. Rain chances will be pretty high on Wednesday, but again I expect accumulations to be reasonable, with most areas receiving one-half inch or less.

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The first half of this week will be messy, with slow-moving and stalling cold fronts leading to high rainfall chances and mostly muggy weather. The second half of the week should be clear and cool before unsettled weather returns for the weekend. (We also answer a question we’ve received several times this weekend—is this going to be a bad hurricane season for the Gulf?)

Monday

Temperatures are incredibly warm (about 70 degrees) and muggy this morning, and will remain so today as highs get into the mid-70s under cloudy skies. Throughout the day a front will sag into into the region just northwest of the metro area (see map below), and this will serve as a focus for moderate to heavy rainfall for places such as College Station and areas north of Highway 105. However, the Houston metro area is unlikely to see more than a couple of tenths of an inch of rain today.

Monday night and Tuesday

The front finally pushes through Houston, to the coast, during the overnight hours. This should allow lows in the Houston to drop into the 50s, with light rain. However, almost as soon as the front reaches the coast at sunrise Tuesday, it probably will lift back inland—almost as if Mother Nature were playing an accordion. The bottom line is that light to moderate rainfall chances will continue on Tuesday, especially to the north of Interstate 10. And local temperatures and humidity will vary greatly due to the position of the front. Fog may also be an issue near the coast.

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Good morning. Before we get into the forecast—which looks quite wet for much of next week—I wanted to mention the red and brown grime people noticed on their cars Thursday morning. It can be traced to a large dust cloud over northern Mexico, from which dust was transported in the atmosphere about 1 to 2 miles above the surface by a vigorous southwesterly flow, and then deposited by Wednesday night’s light rain over Houston.

Friday

Well, much of next week’s forecast is pretty grim. But after a chill start this morning (northern areas such as Conroe and Cleveland recorded a freeze with the clear skies) the rest of Friday will be quite grand. With mostly sunny skies we should expect to see high temperatures of around 70 degrees. The only blemish on the day will be winds building from the southwest, possibly gusting as high as 20 mph. Skies Friday night will be mostly clear, with lows getting down to around 50 in Houston—cooler north, and warmer along the coast.

Saturday

The morning will likely dawn with full sunshine, but I think we’ll see a mix of clouds and sun later throughout the day. Some very light rainfall will be possible during the afternoon hours, but I expect most everyone will stay dry. High temperatures will again get up to around 70 degrees. I’d expect temperatures on Saturday night to be about 10 degrees warmer than Friday night, as we enter a warmer, wetter, and more humid period for the region.

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Temperatures have fallen into the mid- to upper-30s across most of the metro area this morning, with only areas immediately along the coast holding on to 40-degree readings. Clear skies tonight will allow for another chilly night before Houston warms up for the weekend. Most of next week looks unseasonably warm, likely with a string of nights in the 60s, and much of the rest of February will probably see above normal temperatures. Probably, this recent strong front represents the last gasp of truly cold air this season.

Thursday

Overcast skies this morning will begin to clear by or before noon, but a persistent northwest wind will continue to bring cold air into the region. This should limit high temperatures to about 50 degrees for most, with wind gusts above 20 mph making conditions feel cooler. Winds should die down somewhat overnight, and along with clear skies, this will help inland areas get down into the mid- to upper 30s again.

Friday

Onshore winds return Friday, but skies will be sunny all the same. Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees with rather pleasant conditions. With the influence of southerly winds, lows on Friday night will likely only drop into the 50s for most of the area under mostly clear skies.

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