Eric Berger

Good morning, and welcome to 2020! Light rain has fallen across the region overnight, and with lows only in the mid-50s to lower-60s across the region this morning fog has developed near and along the coast. This should burn off later this morning. Overall, our forecast remains the same, with additional light-to-moderate rain possible today, and then clearing skies for a beautiful weekend.

Thursday

Rains have temporarily stalled this morning, but we expect an additional round of showers this afternoon into the early evening as an upper-level system moves across the area. Accumulations for today will likely be below one-half inch of rain. Rain or not, this will be a gray day, with highs in the mid-60s. Rains should end for most of us Thursday night.

Friday

Lows Friday morning will only bottom out in the mid-50s, and with light winds this should again provide favorable conditions for the development of fog. This soupy weather should end by around midday as a cool front pushes through Houston from west-to-east, bringing somewhat drier air and helping to clear out our skies. Highs Friday should be in the mid-60s, with overnight lows falling into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

As mentioned, this weekend will be a winner. Whether your plans include tailgating for the Houston Texans game or yard work or whatever, we’re going to enjoy sunny skies with highs in the mid-60s on Saturday, and sunshine and highs of around 70 on Sunday. Depending on your distance from the coast, lows will either be in the 40s or 50s.

Next week

Just as things begin to warm up on Sunday another moderate cool front will push into the region, likely around Monday morning-ish. This should help keep high temperatures in the 60s through Wednesday of next week, with overnight lows generally in the 40s. Oh, and there will be plenty of sunshine. Our next best chance of rainfall after today probably will not come until next Thursday or Friday—so yeah prepare for some very fine weather indeed.

Good morning—we hope everyone is preparing for a fun and safe celebration tonight. Mother Nature will be ready to do its part, bringing a dry and temperate evening to the festivities. Space City Weather will return to normal business on Thursday, so in the meantime please accept our wishes for a Happy New Year!

Tuesday

The last day of 2019 should be fine, with partly to mostly sunny skies through most of the daytime hours. We can probably expect a high temperature of about 60 degrees with very light winds. Some clouds will move in during the afternoon and evening hours, and temperatures during the run-up to midnight should be in the low 50s. Winds will remain light.

New Year’s Day

Whereas we once expected New Year’s Day to be a soggy affair, the better rain chances have now slipped into Wednesday night and Thursday. Therefore, we expect most of the daytime hours of New Year’s Day to be gray, but without too much, if any precipitation. Highs will reach about 60 degrees, or a little above, for most of the region. Rain chances increase during the evening and overnight hours as low pressure moves up the coast.

Thursday

Forecast models have been waffling on how best to handle the precipitation resulting from the low as it moves up the coast, through Houston, and into Louisiana. Right now the stronger thunderstorms and greatest amount of rainfall should remain off the Texas coast, and into Louisiana. But the Houston area could still see 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening, with even a bit more along the coast. As the low pressure system moves off to the east, a cold front will slide in behind it, bringing an end to rain chances by Thursday afternoon or evening.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

After a gray, and then wet start to 2020, the region should see several days of sunshine and pleasant weather with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Enjoy!

Sunday’s rainfall almost certainly marked the last significant precipitation of 2019 for the greater Houston area. The region experienced some extreme rainfall, punctuated by Tropical Storm Imelda in September. But overall, Houston came in near normal with annual rainfall—receiving a total of 51.93 inches at Bush Intercontinental Airport (the region averages just north of 48 inches per year). The wettest year on record came in 2017, driven by Hurricane Harvey, with 79.69 inches. Here’s the climate graphic, with Houston’s rainfall totals on the bottom:

The story is considerably more interesting to the east of Houston, in Beaumont, which bore the brunt of Imelda. That region, based upon its official monitoring station at Jack Brooks Regional Airport, has recorded 85.46 inches of rain in 2019. But this ranks only third in annual totals, behind 2017 (104.30 inches) and 2018 (88.75 inches), based on 117 years of data.

It seems pretty staggering that Beaumont’s three wettest years all occurred within the last years. It is difficult not to believe some kind of climate signal must exist in this data, but I will leave that analysis to actual scientists. Needless to say, this has been the wettest three-year period in the recorded history of Beaumont. Here’s hoping to more normal weather in the years ahead.

Now, on to the forecast.

Monday

Not much to say about today’s weather, which will be splendid in the wake of Sunday’s cool front. Look for sunny skies, with highs in the low 60s, and light northwesterly winds. Overnight lows will get down into the low 40s in the city of Houston—warmer to the north, cooler along the coast.

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Good morning—we hope your Christmas was splendid, and that the rest of the holiday season is wonderful. Unfortunately our forecast will be rather un-festive until Sunday when sunshine and more winter-like weather returns.

Thursday

Fog is the word of the day, with quarter-mile or less visibility across much of the area with the exception of Galveston, Chambers, and Brazoria counties. With calm winds, clouds could persist well into the mid-morning before finally clearing out some. High temperatures today will rise into the mid-70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures Thursday night are unlikely to fall below 60 degrees for much of the area, setting up favorable conditions once again for fog development—although likely not so dense as Thursday morning.

Friday

After any fog burns off, this should be a gray, humid day, with high temperatures again likely topping out in the mid-70s for much of the region. A few very scattered, brief rain showers are possible. But mostly, the rains should hold off. Friday night will be quite warm, with lows likely only falling into the low 60s for most of the area as clouds persist.

Saturday

This will be another day quite a bit like Friday, although rain chances will be a bit better. However things get more interesting on Saturday night, as a cold front pushes through the region. There will be plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with, so the only thing that may inhibit rain chances is a capping inversion that prevents warm air at the surface from rising. The cap likely is to be weaker north of Interstate 10, while possibly holding on a bit longer near the coast. Bottom line? Expect widespread totals of 0.25 to 1.0 inch of rain for inland areas, and perhaps around 0.25 to 0.50 inches closer to the coast from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.

Sunday

Skies should clear quickly, leaving a lovely winter day with sunshine and highs in the mid-60s and lows probably the 40s.

Monday

See Sunday.

New Year’s Eve and beyond

So the period from New Year’s Eve through the end of next week is muddled. For now we think New Year’s Eve looks decently sunny, but that could change by the evening as we get into the late-night festivities. New Year’s Day (Wednesday) and Thursday both have the potential to be fairly wet and cool, with (as a very rough estimate) 1-2 inches of rain and highs of perhaps around 60 degrees. In any case, it may well be a happy beginning to the new year for those of you seeking rainfall.