Eric Berger

Space City Weather is, and always will be, a weather site. We have no pretensions beyond providing the most reliable forecasts we can, and to help greater Houston residents make decisions about what is best for themselves and their families in times of inclement weather. With that said, we have received numerous questions about the coronavirus, and requests for a site similar to Space City Weather to provide health information for this epidemic. Alas, neither Matt nor I are biologists, physicians, epidemiologists, or even medical journalists, so we are not going to do that. However, in this post, I want to provide some general thoughts about this issue from the perspective of someone well versed in crises (i.e. hurricanes) and public reactions.

We are taking this serious, and so should you.

Social Distancing—the time is now

This is probably the best proven tool we have at this time to fight the coronavirus—and the only one you can take personal control of. This is why schools are canceled, and likely will be for awhile. This is why sports have been suspended, and the rodeo canceled. These are absolutely the right decisions, and the earlier they are enacted, the better it will be for our ability to control the spread of the coronavirus, and give our health care system the time and resources to help those who fall severely ill.

Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It’s the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent. pic.twitter.com/VOyfBcLMus

— Drew A. Harris, DPM, MPH (@drewaharris) February 28, 2020

But we need to go further than canceling mass gatherings. Practicing social distancing in your own life means staying home as much as possible, and maintaining a gap of six feet or more between yourself and others outside the home. Fewer interactions and added distance when you must go into public spaces lowers the chance of exposure. Moreover, if you do get infected, social distancing lowers the chance of spreading the virus.

Practically, this means you should not go to bars or restaurants if possible—take-out or cooking at home are better options. Church services should be temporarily moved online. None of this is popular or economical palatable, but the more of this we do, the more we slow the spread of coronavirus. (If you want to support a favorite business, buy a gift certificate to use for later). A combination of social distancing and aggressive testing by South Korea has provided a model for how democracies can control this disease. We must emulate this, or face drastic consequences.

Hoarding

Every time a significant tropical event threatens Houston, we see runs on the grocery stores—bottled water being the highest priority item. With coronavirus, toilet paper has emerged as the highest priority item. It is not clear why this is, but for goodness sake there is no toilet paper shortage in the United States and panic buying and hoarding only increases the anxieties of everyone else. If you’re buying cases of toilet paper when you already have an adequate supply, you are—I have vowed never to curse on this web site as children read it, so I won’t here—a scoundrel, dastard, villain and worse. Do not do this.

The coronavirus outbreak will be vastly different than a hurricane. And while we do not know what to expect, it is clear that we are not going to see the kinds of natural barriers (like wind and flooding) that will prevent trucks from driving, and grocery stores from remaining open.

Be good neighbors

As is the case during a hurricane, check on neighbors (while practicing social distancing!) If they need help, help them with supplies. Basically, look out for more than yourself.

The fact is, with this virus and disease, we are all in this together. The virus spread quickly from China, to the rest of Asia and Europe, and it is now circulating widely in the United States because we have a global culture. We humans travel everywhere. And we are all in this together. It is not us versus them, or one political party versus another. We are all humans, sharing the same world, with a limited set of resources, facing this. We are better together.

Appreciation

During severe weather, countless people in this region express their appreciation for our efforts. So in this time of need, let Matt and I do the same for everyone who is working to keep the region going—that means those people who are stocking grocery shelves, driving delivery trucks, working in pharmacies, preparing take-out meals in restaurants, picking up the trash, keeping the lights turned on, farmers, and more. The list of those providing essential services goes on, and on. Thank you. And then there are the health care providers and first responders, preparing for disaster, facing the uncertainty, and putting themselves directly in harm’s way. Your sacrifice and dedication are admirable. Thank you so very, very much.

More information

If you have more questions about coronavirus, this comprehensive, continually updated guide by my colleague at Ars Technica, Beth Mole, is a great place to start. She’s a microbiologist and fine writer, and seeks to take the same calm but prudent approach to this issue that we do to weather.

We’ll be back with a full forecast tomorrow morning.

By some definitions, we have reached spring. (Meteorologists mark the beginning of spring on March 1). Astronomically speaking, however, winter does not end until later this month, with the Vernal Equinox on March 19.

What we can definitively say here is that Houston is most definitely transitioning into full-on spring weather, especially beginning next week. More on that below. But before we jump into the forecast, let’s take a quick look back at the region’s mild winter—anywhere from the 6th to 18th warmest depending on where you live. Of particular note: Houston Hobby had zero days below freezing, but eight days with temperatures of 80 degrees or above.

Thursday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the 50s, and we should see mostly cloudy skies clear out by around noon. Winds today will be noticeable out of the north, gusting perhaps to around 25 mph. High temperatures this afternoon will likely reach about 70 degrees under sunny skies.

For this evening, and the Becky G concert at the rodeo, we should see winds falling back as the sun sets, but not going away. With temperatures in the low 60s, falling into the upper 50s after the show, there will be a bit of chill in the air. No rain concerns, of course.

Friday

Lows Friday morning will begin in the upper 40s for most. Sunshine will prevail on Friday, but we’re going to see winds pick back up out of the north at 5 to 15 mph. Highs will likely crest at about 70 degrees again, making for a nice spring time day.

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Coastal fog is driving down visibilities this morning, and we’re going to have one more day in this warm, soupy weather before a cold front clears things out and brings several days of fine sunshine to the region. We’re monitoring today and tonight for the possibility of storms, but again we think the worst of this system will likely pass mostly north of the metro area.

Wednesday

There’s a pretty strong line of thunderstorms shown on the radar image above, but the models suggest a movement that should keep most, if not all of the stronger thunderstorms north of the Houston region, including Montgomery County. As a result, we expect today to be a cloudy day, with a good chance of rainfall lingering into the evening hours. I’d expect accumulations of perhaps one-half inch or more (if you’re unlucky enough to get hit by one of the few thunderstorms) north of Interstate 10, with less closer to the coast. Highs will reach near 80 degrees before a front slowly moves in to drop temperatures in the 50s overnight.

For the rodeo this evening, we expect rain chances to fall off around sunset, so while we can’t guarantee dry weather, more likely than not there won’t be too many rain drops. Temperatures will drop into the upper 60s this evening, with light winds. The stronger winds associated with the front probably won’t arrive until after midnight.

Thursday

Skies should become partly to mostly sunny some time on Thursday morning, with the potential for gusts of around 20mph. These winds should die down a bit later in the day, with high temperatures probably pushing up to around 70 degrees.

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We’re going to have a pair of warm and potentially wet days this week before a cool front arrives on Wednesday evening to bring sunshine and more seasonable weather back to the area. We’re still eyeing the possibility of storms Tuesday night and Wednesday, but we’re not overly concerned as we expect the system to weaken as it approaches Houston.

Tuesday

You’ve got two choices for weather today: Gray and humid, or humid and gray. Some areas near the coast are seeing foggy conditions, and that should burn off later this morning. We’ll be left with a cloudy day, high temperatures near 80 degrees, and increasingly moist air. But it seems likely that rain showers will, for the most part, hold off until at least the overnight hours.

If you’re heading out to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo’s opening night, you probably don’t need sleeves. Temperatures this evening should remain in the low 70s, with only light winds from the southeast. A smattering of light rain is possible, but our guess is that you’ll remain dry.

Wednesday

An upper-level low pressure system will push through the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the models are all over the place in terms of rainfall. They’re struggling with the fact that while there is a fair amount atmospheric moisture, a capping inversion may prevent widespread showers and thunderstorms. At a best guess, I think most of the area probably will see a couple of tenths of an inch of rainfall, but its certainly possible that northern areas (likely north of The Woodlands) could get 1 to 3 inches, and southern areas little to no rain at all. A front arrives Wednesday afternoon or evening to begin to cool us down.

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