Eric Berger

Temperatures are generally in the 40s or 50s this morning across Houston, but that’s probably the end of the cool weather until next weekend. A warm front will move onshore today, and will leave us with warm and muggy conditions for most of the rest of the week. Rainfall will never be too far away, but accumulations probably won’t be that significant, likely less than one inch.

Monday

Light showers along the coast should migrate inland along with the warm airmass moving in from the coast. After the rain moves through, we’ll be left with a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s. With a thick cloud deck Houston is unlikely to see much of a change in overnight temperatures. Lows tonight will probably only fall 3 to 5 degrees from high temperatures on Monday.

Tuesday

With the warm, moist air the region will likely see the development of sea fog along the coast as warm air moves over the cooler near-shore waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay. Highs Tuesday will reach the mid-70s. More rain showers will be possible on Tuesday, although at this point they likely will be more scattered than any activity on Monday. Lows Tuesday night are unlikely to fall much below the upper 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be two more gray days, with highs in the upper 70s and warm nights. Rain chances will likely take a step back to the 20 to 30 percent range. The bigger question is whether a cold front makes it all the way down through Texas and into Houston on Thursday. The answer at this point seems to be very likely not, although if you live in Montgomery County or points north there’s a slightly better chance of seeing some cooler and drier air on Thursday and Friday.

See full post

Good afternoon. Just wanted to jump in with an update on storms anticipated for tonight. We’re wary. We’re watching. But we’re not overly worried—and we don’t think you should be either.

This front and associated strong squall line have received a lot of media attention this week, and we’re not entirely sure why. It may be because there really has not been any significant weather to hit Houston for three months or so. But if anything, the model trend today is toward a slightly less severe threat for greater Houston. It’s definitely prudent to be weather-aware tonight. And I wouldn’t be out and about when the squall line hits. But we will face worse threats later this year so let’s temper expectations.

The primary threats tonight are damaging straight-line winds (we may see some gusts above 60mph), potentially a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail. Here’s the timing for the worst of the weather, which should last an hour or less for most locations.

11 pm CT

Midnight

1 am CT

Stay safe! Please know that if conditions come in worse than expected we will be here to update as needed. Other than that, do enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend after the front passes.

We’ll say goodbye to sunshine for a couple of days, and our focus will now turn to the potential for severe weather on Friday night. A strong line of storms will sweep through Houston from west to east, likely from about 9pm to 3am. All of the usual threats will be there—large hail, damaging winds, and potentially tornadoes. Because of the storm’s progressive movement, we do not expect rain totals much above 0.5 to 1.5 for widespread areas, with higher isolated amounts. It may be severe, but it will be over quickly.

Thursday

Today will be mostly cloudy, with southerly winds continuing to pile moisture into the region. However, a fairly stiff capping inversion—this is situation where warmer temperatures higher up in the atmosphere prevent warm, moist air at the surface from rising—should preclude all but some scattered, light showers today. Highs will reach the upper 70s for most of the area, and temperatures Thursday night will not fall much below 70.

Friday

Friday will start out a lot like Thursday, with an increasing chance of storms throughout the afternoon and evening hours. While you may see some showers during the daytime hours (which will be warm, with highs again likely in the upper 70s), the main event will be a line of storms moving through. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has expanded the area of “enhanced” weather somewhat southward and westward. This means it will be possible, but by no means certain that we will see strong wind gusts of 75+ mph, large hail and tornadoes. There will be heavy rainfall too, but it should move through quickly. The bottom line is that if you are out and about on Friday night, be very weather aware. (I’d definitely plan to be home before the storms hit). And if you’re at home, be prepared if a tornado warning is issued for your area.

See full post

It is quite cold across Houston this morning, with temperatures generally in the 30s in outlying areas, and low 40s in the central Houston area. After days and days of sunny weather our skies should turn cloudy later today, warmer, and then stormy on Friday, before pleasant weather returns again for the weekend.

Wednesday

Just a quick note: With clear skies on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, please note that if you saw a white streak in the sky above Houston during the pre-dawn hours, it was this the of 60 Starlink satellites launched Monday night by a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. (More information on how to see them here). They will gradually become fainter as they raise their orbits over the next month.

Overall, today should be another nice one, with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60s. However, winds will become noticeable out of the south later this afternoon, gusting up to 20mph, bringing much more humid air into the region, and setting the stage for storms later this week. Lows Wednesday night will be considerably warmer, unlikely to fall below 60 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

A gray day. Expect highs to rise into the mid- to upper-70s despite the cloudy skies, More gusty winds from the south will continue to transport moisture inland, and we can’t rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours—but we don’t expect significant accumulations. Thursday night should be rather warm, likely in the upper 60s.

See full post