Eric Berger

Good morning! After its first 19 days, this month was on pace to become Houston’s warmest July ever on record, besting 1980 by nearly 1 full degree. However, with cooler weather ahead this week due to clouds and rainfall, we should back off those temperatures somewhat. Indeed, the story for the next week will be rainfall and tropical moisture, with two tropical waves headed this way.

Monday

The first of two tropical waves lies just off the Texas coast, and will push inland today and Tuesday. (Note: The National Hurricane Center has given this system a 10 percent chance of forming into a tropical depression). As this moisture moves inland, we’re likely to see a greater than 50 percent chance of rain for coastal counties, and a less than 50 percent chance of rain for inland counties. Overall accumulations should be on the lower side Monday, with most areas likely seeing one-half inch of rain, or less. Clouds will help limit temperatures in the low 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 70s.

Tuesday

By Tuesday, as the bulk of the tropical wave moves onshore, much of the area should see a healthy chance of rain showers, well above 50 percent. Accumulations for most people should be about one-half inch of rain, but due to the tropical nature of this moisture, we probably will see some bullseyes that produce up a few inches of rainfall fairly quickly. With cloudy skies and showers, high temperatures should be limited to about 90 degrees.

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As expected this weekend, the Houston region has transitioned from a hot and sunny pattern that dominated the first half of July into one with more clouds, higher rain chances, and slightly cooler temperatures. That trend will continue this week. So why are we posting on a Sunday? Because a tropical system may approach Texas late this week.

This morning the National Hurricane Center called attention to the possibility that this system will develop into a tropical depression or storm, giving it a 20 percent chance of doing so by Friday.

This may sound scary, but right now this is not a feature we’re overly concerned about. While it is possible that this disturbance develops into a weak tropical storm, there appears to be only a little support for this scenario in the global models, and no indication whatsoever of anything stronger than that. So as is often the case with tropical systems in June and July, the biggest worry is heavy rainfall. That’s possible on Friday and Saturday, but again there is no particularly strong signal for extensive heavy rainfall in the global models.

The bottom line: We’re tracking the movement of a tropical system that will push into the Gulf of Mexico this week, and should head toward Texas. There is, for now, no evidence of any particularly extreme weather—perhaps we will see a few inches of rainfall and some elevated winds. We will of course continue to watch it closely.

It’s another sticky morning across the Houston region, with lows at 80 degrees or above for most of the region. Normal lows this time of year run about five degrees cooler so the real heat this month has come during the nights. We expect the overnight lows to moderate slightly over the next few days, but we’ll remain at least in the upper 70s. The bigger change will be apparent in daytime highs, as we fall back toward the low-to-mid 90s after today.

Thursday

If you liked Wednesday’s weather then you’re in luck, because today will bring more of the same. Although high pressure should begin to weaken, it’s still going to retain enough of a grip to send high temperatures soaring into the upper 90s across the area. Morning clouds should give way to afternoon sunshine.

Friday

Our weather pattern should really change on Friday. Highs pressure will back off just enough to allow a weak low pressure system to move from east to west across the area. This should bring scattered, light to moderate showers along the coast during the morning, and spread inland during the afternoon and evening hours. Will you get rain? If you live south of Interstate 10, chances are probably in the 50 percent range, and lower if you live north. Accumulations for some may be up to one-half inch, but most people will see less than this. Highs should otherwise be in the mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see fairly standard weather for Houston in July, which is to say highs in the low- to mid-90s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. We may see some isolated to scattered showers driven by the sea breeze, but overall rain chances will be quite low.

Next week

Most of next week should see highs in the low 90s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. On average, each day should have around a 30 percent chance of rain, but of course some days will have better and worse chances. We’ll refine that forecast as we get closer to it.

So it’s been hot in Houston this month, especially the nights. The low temperature this morning at Houston Hobby Airport is likely to fall no lower than 81 degrees. This would make for the tenth day so far in July that the temperature has failed to fall below 80 degrees at that location. This extends a new record for mornings with 80- degree mornings, or above, for the month of July. The previous record for the most of these days at Hobby was eight, in 2016, according the National Weather Service. Also, July is not quite half over yet.

Fortunately, some scant relief is coming as the high pressure that has dominated our weather this month begins to weaken and slide east. This will slowly bring down temperatures and, eventually, introduce some moderate rain chances to the area. We think the second half of this month will be much closer to “normal” for a Houston summer than the extremely warm nights and days we’ve experienced over the last two weeks.

Wednesday

Today, however, will not provide too much of a change. Highs probably will still reach into the mid- to upper-90s for the region, with partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Winds from the south at 5 to 10 mph will provide a bit of relief, and then we will be in for another very warm night, with lows possibly falling into the upper 70s for inland areas.

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