Eric Berger

Houston’s torrid late-summer weather will unfortunately continue, as expected, for the rest of the week. On Wednesday, the high temperature reached 99 degrees, and that’s pretty much the floor for what we can expect from maximum temperatures the rest of this week. By Friday, we’re likely to break a 110-year-old high temperature record.

Thursday

We will not touch the record high for Houston today, which is 108 degrees. If you lived in Houston, in 2000, you may remember the extraordinary heat wave of early September that year—this was the tail end of that period. Rather, Houston’s highs will “only” get up to around 100 degrees on Thursday as high pressure dominates the region. Rain chances are non-existent. Humidity will be a smidge below typical summer levels, which is about the only good thing that can be said about this heat.

Friday

The high record for Friday is 99 degrees, set way back in 1909. We are very, very likely to beat that as Friday’s highs should get into the low 100s for most of the city. You’ll note new banners from Reliant on today’s post—it’s because the late summer heat is putting a strain on the state’s electricity grid. Please conserve energy if possible during the hottest part of the day.

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As the tropics heat up all around Texas—with Tropical Storm Fernand moving into Mexico and Hurricane Dorian threatening the southeastern United States—the big local concern is actually an emerging drought. With extremely hot and sunny weather forecast for awhile in Houston, a moderate drought could return to the region for the first time in nearly three years. We’re going to discuss that at the end of today’s post.

Wednesday through Friday

The forecast is more or less the same for the rest of the work week, with building high pressure over the state of Texas. We are going to see high temperatures near or at 100 degrees, lows around 80 degrees, and rain chances of effectively zero percent. The air mass will be a little drier than normal for “summer,” so the heat index won’t be quite as high as it was in August, but it’s still going to be really, really hot. We probably will set some daily high temperature records this week.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point, the weekend should bring more of the same. Make your beach or other outdoor plans with confidence.

Next week

High pressure should finally back off early next week, allowing for more moisture to work its way inland from the Gulf of Mexico. This should lead to the development of more clouds, along with some decent rain chances. But don’t expect too much. The global model ensembles, on average, forecast about one-half inch of rain for all of next week. Temperatures should drop back into the low- or mid-90s. Alas, there remains nary a whiff of a cold front in the models, sorry.

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August may be over, but the heat will remain for Houston as a late-summer ridge of high pressure settles in over the region. There are no cold fronts in sight, alas. Meanwhile, the Atlantic season’s fifth tropical storm is forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico (it is no threat to Houston) and Hurricane Dorian has absolutely ravaged the northern Bahamas. We’ve got a lot to get to today.

Monday

There are no bones about it, today and the rest of the week will be hot beneath a ridge of high pressure. Coastal counties, such as Galveston and Brazoria, may see some showers today from the very outer bands of the tropical system deep in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, but most of the region will be hot and sunny, with highs near 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be near 80.

Tuesday through the weekend

To be honest, the weather is not going to change a whole lot for Houston this week. We’re going to remain in this high-pressure driven hot-and-sunny pattern, with highs near or at 100 degrees for the remainder of this week, and likely through the weekend. Rain chances will be near zero, as we start to have some drought concerns.

Heat, how long?

The heat wave may finally break early next week, as highs fall back to more normal temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. However, the chances of a cold front during the first half of September appear to be quite remote.

Here’s the latest ensemble output from the European model for low temperatures through September 17. Just one member out of 50 (!) brings a notable front into Houston during that time. These are not, uhhh, good odds.

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This post concerns Hurricane Dorian, which presents no threat to Texas, but which we are covering due to general public interest. For Houston, for the foreseeable future, we can expect hot days, low rain chances, and no taste of fall.

Crossing over very warm seas and not having to battle much in the way of wind shear, Hurricane Dorian‘s maximum winds increased to 180mph on Sunday morning. As central pressures continued to fall, further intensification seems to be possible today. Unfortunately, as it is reaching peak intensity, Dorian is now beginning to cross over the northern Bahamas. Its crawling westward movement will prolong exposure on these islands to wind gusts of up to 200mph, very high seas, and heavy rainfall. Areas such as Freeport in the Bahamas will very likely see extreme levels of damage.

Beyond Monday, we still expect Dorian to make a northern turn as a trough of low pressure currently over the upper Midwest sweeps down and pulls the tropical system north. The ultimate track will depend on the timing of this trough, as well as any wobbles in Dorian’s path over the next couple of days. These two factors will determine whether the coastal regions of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas escape with a near miss on catastrophic conditions—which seems more likely at present—or face the brunt of Dorian’s intensity.

Dorian probably will maintain its Category-4 and Category-5 intensity for the next couple of days as it undergoes a period of eyewall replacement cycles, when the inner eyewall weakens and then re-forms. By Tuesday or so, as it begins to pull north and at least its outer bands begin to interact with the continental United States, it should begin a weakening trend.