Eric Berger

Houston has enjoyed some moderately cooler weather over the last week or so, and the official high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport has not risen to 95 degrees or above since June 9. Well, it’s about time to go back into the frying pan. Also, if you missed Matt’s tropical update on Tuesday, I encourage you to check it out, as it provides an overview of what we’re looking at over the next few weeks.

Wednesday

Highs today should be in the mid-90s with lots of sunshine. The atmosphere remains fairly moist, so it will be quite humid as well. Looking further afield, strong thunderstorms are possible in the Dallas-Fort Worth area later today or tonight, along with supercells that could produce tornadoes. Conditions are not perfect for such storms, but there’s an “enhanced” environment according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. So if you’re traveling north today, bear that in mind.

This line of storms should sag south tonight, but forecast modeling indicates that it will peter out as it moves into counties well north of Houston, and likely die completely before reaching Montgomery County. Mostly, the Houston area can just expect a partly cloudy, warm night with low temperatures only falling to around degrees. That’s downright sultry.

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Monday marked the first time in more than three weeks that the high temperature in Houston did not reach at least 90 degrees, but now we’ll put our brief flirtation with somewhat cooler behind us as high pressure begins to build over the area today. Perhaps the biggest question about the forecast from now through the end of the work week is whether highs in the days ahead will reach the mid- or upper-90s.

Also, be on the lookout later today for a tropical update from Matt. There is nothing imminent, but we want to keep readers apprised of what we’re thinking and seeing as we look ahead over the next week or two in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. When we get into July, we probably will begin posting these on a weekly basis, and then probably more frequently during the peak periods of August and early September.

Tuesday

There isn’t much movement in the atmosphere today, which means that despite a fairly moist atmosphere any shower development should be scattered at best. High resolution models are indicating the best chances for rain may come down near Matagorda Bay, or to the northeast of the Houston metro area. In any case, for the most part we should see a mostly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

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Overnight rains and storms—there were definitely some impressive lightning displays late Sunday and early Monday—have largely moved to the coast and offshore. Most of the region saw 1 to 3 inches from Sunday through this morning although a few locations, including parts of Montgomery County, saw totals of nearly 4 inches. One benefit of Sunday night’s storms is significantly cooler weather this morning, with rain-cooled lows in the upper 60s for much of Houston. Enjoy this while it lasts.

Monday

The atmosphere is pretty worked over, so although some light rains will be possible today, we’re unlikely to see any real storm activity except near the coast (seas offshore are choppy, to say the least). With lingering clouds, however, temperatures today may only rise into the mid-80s for most of the region. Houston has reached 90 degrees every day so far this month, so that would offer a nice reprieve from the summertime heat we’ve been experiencing. Skies should be partly cloudy tonight, with lows in the mid-70s.

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The Houston region appears likely to see an increasingly wet period beginning later this afternoon through at least Tuesday morning as atmospheric moisture levels spike above normal, and the absence of high pressure allows for the formation of showers and thunderstorms. To be clear, we’re not really expecting any significant flooding for most people—at least not beyond some street flooding—just the potential for several rounds of storms. Check the radar later today before embarking on any outdoor plans.

Unfortunately, it is hard to offer too much detail, as there is not great agreement among the high-resolution models about what will take place later today, tonight, and Monday. At a best guess, the potential for heavier rainfall should remain to the west of Harris County, and north of Montgomery County, through the early afternoon hours Sunday, but after that all bets are off.

At some point we are likely to see showers and potentially stronger thunderstorms sag into the metro area—moisture levels may peak after midnight tonight for central and coastal areas of Houston—and this will lead to better rain chances. At a best guess, most of the region will see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through Tuesday morning, but as always there will be the potential for higher isolated totals, and some people are likely to miss out entirely. Most of Houston hasn’t had much, if any measurable rainfall in 11 days so some precipitation will be welcome for most.

We’ll be watching things later today and will update if needed.