Eric Berger

Based upon an average of temperatures from 1980 through 2010, which establish so-called “normal” temperatures for the Houston region, the very warmest time of year runs from July 27 through August 20. During this 3.5-week period the average high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport is 95 degrees, and the low is 75 degrees. (The comparable period for Hobby is July 22 through August 22). These are the absolute dog days of summer, with hot, humid days, and warm, sultry nights. However, there are some distinct signs that fall is not all that far away, most notably our shortening days—our 13 hour, 37 minute length of day now is nearly 30 minutes shorter than a month ago at the solistice.

Monday

We don’t have great confidence in the forecast for this morning, however we do expect less coverage in showers and thunderstorms than the region saw Sunday, when a few areas south (hello Pearland!) and southeast of the city saw up to 1.5 inches under fairly strong storms. Rain chances today will probably be less than 20 percent, with isolated, mostly short-lived storms. Highs will likely climb into the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Lows Monday night will only fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Rain chances will be a little higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a bit more of a disturbed upper atmosphere helping to force some lift at the surface. I’d peg rain chances at both days around 40 percent for areas between Interstate 10 and the coast, and 30 percent for inland areas. On average, accumulations will be less than one-half an inch, but there probably will be some outliers that pick up more. Highs in the mid-90s.

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For July, the weather outside today and tonight will be amazing. Under the influence of gloriously dry air, we’ll see comfortable conditions for the next few days before more summer-like weather returns. We’ll also touch on the tropics in today’s post, although right now we don’t really see anything to worry about.

Wednesday

Temperatures have generally fallen into the low 70s this morning, and despite full sunshine today we don’t expect highs to get much above the upper-80s today. (Normally a mostly sunny day in July would be 5 to 10 degrees warmer). Winds will be out of the northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Under the influence of this northerly flow, dewpoints this afternoon will be in the 40s (to the west) and 50s (in Houston), which will completely obliterate most of our region’s characteristic humidity. Expect very fine weather this evening, with lows in the upper 60s for inland areas. We may approach the record low temperature for July 24, 68 degrees, at Bush Intercontinental Airport, this evening. Don’t miss the fine weather.

Thursday

Another very fine day, a lot like Wednesday, although probably a touch less dry and a touch more humid.

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Pinch yourself, Houston. It’s July. It’s the beginning of the very hottest time of the year. And remarkably, it’s going to feel somewhat dry outside.

A bonafide front pushed through the region during the overnight hours, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Now we aren’t going to see significant cooling during the daytime with this front—the ground is just too warm, the sun is too high in the sky for too long, and there just isn’t that cool of an air mass over the southern United States during the middle of summer. But what we will see is a northerly flow and significantly drier air. You’ll begin to feel this tonight, and it will be pretty amazing for this time of year.

Tuesday

The front blew through with only scattered showers. The high-resolution models had been trending drier, and the bulk of the storm activity remained offshore. The same models are indicating we may see some brief redevelopment this morning between Interstate 10 and the coast, but after that the atmosphere should really begin to dry out. Highs today will be around 90 degrees with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Skies will clear later today or this evening, and lows should get down to around 70 for most of Houston.

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Houston’s weather pattern will turn more interesting this week, and not in a bad way as a bonafide cold front moves into the region. This won’t be a prototypical fall front, there’s just not enough cold air available to work with, but it will be noticeable as some significantly drier air moves in. Areas on the inland side of Interstate 69, especially, may see dewpoints in the low- to mid-50s later this week. This will offer a rare, if short-lived reprieve from the kind of humidity we’re normally accustomed to during the summer months in Houston.

If dewpoints are an unfamiliar concept, they offer an indicator of total moisture in the air. The past several mornings, when you’ve walked outside and been smacked in the face by high humidity, the dewpoint has generally been in the mid-70s for Houston. That’s typical for July. Anything from 60 or lower will be completely noticeable, especially during the evening and morning hours. Roughly, for Houston, here’s what various dewpoints mean:

• 70s means uncomfortable, or typical summer
• 60s means humid, but not terrible
• 50s means mostly comfortable
• 40s or less means very comfortable or dry

Monday

Today will be a lot like Sunday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid-90s. There’s enough moisture that we should again see the development of showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze that moves inland late this morning and the afternoon hours. Rain chances are probably in the 40 percent range, meaning showers will be very much hit or miss.

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