Eric Berger

As Houston continues to slide toward summer, we’re looking at a period of partly or mostly cloudy skies, on-and-off rainy, humid, and fairly warm weather during the next week or so. Nights will remain warm and muggy for the foreseeable future, with much of the region never falling below the 70s throughout the forecast period.

Tuesday

We may see a few brief, very scattered, light rain showers today—but for the most part skies will simply be cloudy. Despite the lack of sunshine, highs will generally get into the mid- to upper-80s on Tuesday, with temperatures a bit cooler near the coast due to the moderating influence of the Gulf waters. Southerly winds will be noticeable, gusting to perhaps 25 mph. Lows tonight will be in the 70s for all but very far inland areas.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of partly to mostly cloudy days. A cold front is going to be moving through north Texas, but it’s going to stall before reaching the Houston area, and therefore any severe weather should remain to the northwest of the region (see the map from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center above). As a result, Houston and its surrounding counties will see only a 30 or 40 percent chance of rain each day, with perhaps a few tenths of an inch of rain in terms of accumulation. Highs will remain in the mid- to upper-80s.

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It is difficult to quantify a “nice” Spring, but it sure seems as though the last couple of months have been quite pleasant in Houston, Texas. We’ve had a few storms, which is normal for spring, but mostly we’ve seen partly to mostly sunny weather, fairly dry air, and cool but not cold nights.

But now, the party’s over. I’m sorry to report that Spring, 2019, died this weekend. As recently as Sunday morning, lows were in the low- to mid-60s for much of the region, but starting this today we’re going to see a string of mornings in the 70s, with May and then June right around the corner. Spring was 75 days old.

Monday

After a lovely, sunny weekend, we’ll see the return of partly to mostly cloudy skies today, although there still should be enough sunshine to allow high temperatures to push up into the mid-80s. The bigger story will be the return of onshore winds, which may gust up to about 20 mph this afternoon from the south. With muggier air and mostly cloudy skies tonight, low temperatures on Tuesday morning will only fall into the low- to mid-70s for the region.

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As expected, Wednesday night’s storms were mostly a non-event for Houston, with most of the region outside of the Brazos Valley picking up 1.0 inch or less of rainfall. We’re now going to enjoy a few somewhat cooler nights before the onshore flow returns. After this, however, it appears the region will settle into a warmer and definitely more humid pattern for awhile—a good reminder that summer is nigh.

Thursday

Skies will be clearing out today, and this will allow highs to probably get to about 80 degrees despite a modest northwesterly wind. Temperatures will fall off this evening as the sun goes down, and with clear skies, areas well inland may see the upper 50s, while most of Houston stays in the low 60s.

Friday

A banner day, with lots of dry air, sunshine, and light winds. High temperatures will get into the mid-80s. We’re going to have one more cool night, as lows get down into the low 60s in Houston again. This really will be the last hurrah for dry air, for awhile, so enjoy it.

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It’s a bit of a messy forecast for the greater Houston region Wednesday and Wednesday night, so let’s break it down.

Wednesday

For the most part during daytime hours, the metro area of Houston, including immediately surrounding counties, will experience mostly cloudy skies, with a 30 to 40 percent chance of light to moderate rain showers. In Houston, rains look most likely around noon before a break this afternoon.

However, in the Brazos Valley including College Station, we have concerns later this afternoon, as an atmospheric disturbance migrates northward and combines with an approaching front. At this point, high resolution models point to the potential for some fairly heavy rainfall from mid-afternoon through the early evening. We’d expect some areas to see 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals.

For Houston, itself, stronger storms are unlikely to move into the region before sunset (or later) as a line of showers and thunderstorms pushed through from west to east. I’d guess this line reaches the western part of the metro area between 7pm and midnight, and pushes through the city during the overnight hours. For now, the best chance of storms (mainly a hail and damaging wind threat) appears likely north of Interstate 10. Rain totals of 0.5 to 2.0 inches remain likely in Houston from this system, although I’m not sure whether we’ll see a solid line of storms, or whether it will be broken by the time it reaches Houston.

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