Eric Berger

Most of us remember last winter, right? November was 4.4 degrees above normal, and then came December. While the month had a couple of decent fronts, the second half had a run of extremely warm days and nights, including 80 degrees on Christmas and an overnight low of 71 degrees on Christmas night. Here’s what that looked like:

Temperatures this November have averaged about 5 degrees above normal, too, a lot like last year. But I’m willing to bet that December won’t see a repeat. Indeed, as I’ll discuss below, there are good reasons to think that a good chunk of December will see cooler than normal temperatures.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s today, and humidity levels will rise a bit. However, a weak cool front will arrive on Wednesday morning to put a lid of temperatures for the rest of the week. This front could spur a few showers near or along the coast, but for the most part we won’t see any precipitation. Highs Wednesday should be in the mid-70s with continued sunshine.

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Houston just enjoyed a splendid week of weather, and truth be told there’s more great fall-like weather to come for the region—nothing too hot or too cold. However, winter is not too far off. And as this graphic published on Twitter by climate scientist Brian Brettschneider shows, we are entering the historically coolest period of weather for the region:

This indicates that the coolest 90-day period for Houston (and most of the Gulf Coast outside of Florida) runs from the end of November through the end of February. And indeed, there are some signs of more winter-like weather in the extended forecast, as I’ll discuss below.

Monday and Tuesday

After a cool start to the work week, highs will jump up into the mid-70s on Monday, and upper 70s on Tuesday. With relatively dry air (especially on Monday) and sunny skies, both days should feel quite pleasant, and nights will be mild with lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. As moisture levels begin to rise Monday night, we could see some fog on Tuesday morning.

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Skies are already clearing this morning across the Houston region on Wednesday morning, setting the stage for a splendid holiday weekend—and as discussed Tuesday our weather looks really fine for quite awhile. We have only one small concern, which surprisingly after a year in which Hurricane Harvey hit Houston, is a lack of rain. Over the last two months a large part of the region has received just two to three inches of rainfall. As the US Drought Monitor map shown below indicates, the region is not yet in a drought. We are not yet even “abnormally dry,” but conditions now represent a mild concern as we enter a La Nina winter that is likely to be drier than normal. For now, it’s just something to watch.

Wednesday and Thursday

What you see this morning is what you get. Wednesday will be breezy, as cool northerly winds blow in, but these should die down this evening. Both days will be sunny, with highs in the 60s, and chilly nights. For Thanksgiving morning, we should see temperatures as cool as the mid-30s for far northern reaches of the Houston metro area, with low 40s in the city, and around 50 degrees right on the coast. Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer.

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Houston will see some spotty rain chances today before a cold front blows into the area tonight and brings chilly, holiday-like weather to the region for Thanksgiving. This will provide a nice contrast to the holiday’s weather the last two years, which has been muggier, with high temperatures in the 70s.

Tuesday

Some showers popped up near the coast this morning, and we will probably see additional showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms to the south and east of the city today. A majority of the city will probably see little or no rain at all, however, as mostly cloudy skies limit high temperatures to the mid-70s. I expect a warmish evening before the front pushes through the region between midnight and sunrise on Wednesday morning. A broken line of storms may accompany the front.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect breezy conditions when you wake up on Wednesday, as cooler and drier air will be blowing in from the north. We could see wind gusts in the upper teens to lower 20s of mph, and highs should only warm into the mid-60s under sunny skies.

Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning will be a cold one, with lows in the mid- to upper 30s for inland areas, and lower 50s right along the coast. After a clear and cold start to Thanksgiving, expect light winds, sunny skies, and a high of around 65 degrees during the afternoon.

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