Eric Berger

A rare June cool front is still in the cards for tonight

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A few areas south of Houston saw some light to moderate showers on Monday, and the region will have one more shot at rain early on Wednesday morning. But after that conditions look really dry for at least a week or 10 days. Fortunately, the entire Houston metro area is at present drought-free. In fact, most of Texas is doing quite well for early June, with just 1.3 percent of the state in a “severe” drought or worse. This is a pretty decent posture in which to head into the hot summer months.

U.S. Drought Monitor released June 4.

As local residents will know, during the middle of summer Houston often gets stuck beneath domes of high pressure for which it will not rain for days and days. Oftentimes, this pattern will only break with the incursion of tropical moisture. And then we enter the feast-or-famine state in which we can go from a drought to flooding within a couple of hours. So it goes along the Gulf Coast, during the summer. (At present we see no indications of tropical activity in the Gulf after Cristobal).

Tuesday

Speaking of heat, today will be hot and humid, so take care this afternoon when temperatures push into the upper 90s and the heat index soars into the 100s. Skies will be partly sunny, with light winds from the south. Weather conditions today will be a “proper” summer day in that it will mirror the kind of weather we typically see at the peak of heating in Houston, during late July and much of August. You’ve been warned.

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Hurricane season started with a bang—so what does that mean?

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Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall on Sunday evening in southeastern Louisiana, bringing winds, waves, and heavy rainfall to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This seems as good of a time as any to take stock of a frenetic start to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and assess what it means for the rest of the year.

Busy start

Cristobal formed on June 2 in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, and this was the earliest ever point in the Atlantic season that the third named storm has formed in a given year. (However imperfect, the Atlantic basin has records dating back to 1851). The previous earliest “C” storm was Colin, on June 5, 2016. Arthur and Bertha, which were both relatively weak and short lived storms, formed this year even before the season officially began on June 1.

This may seem like an ominous beginning to what seasonal forecasters have predicted to be a busy season. But according to hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, there is little correlation between early season storms and the total activity (in terms of number of storms and their overall intensity) for the remainder of the year. In fact, the correlation is slightly negative.

Correlation between seasonal activity and first named-storm formation. (Phil Klotzbach)

What this means is that we’re not really going to know the full tale of the 2020 season until about August, when activity in the tropical Atlantic Ocean—known as the Main Development Region—gets fired up. This is the period of summer when we start to watch tropical waves spin off the western coast of Africa, and develop into tropical systems as they migrate westward across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean Sea. We’re still about six to eight weeks from the opening of this period.

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Yes, a bonafide front is on the way Tuesday night

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Good morning. This week will start out very hot for June, but as Matt noted on Friday an actual cool front will arrive by Tuesday night to bring some relief from the humidity. Days are are still going to be hot of course, but the drier air in the wake of this front will definitely make for some pleasant evenings and mornings that are rare in Houston, in June.

Monday

The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal has now moved inland over southern Louisiana and Mississippi and is bringing heavy rains to the deep south. Houston likes on the extreme western edge of the storm and may see some very scattered, brief showers as a result today. However, skies will be mostly sunny and the bigger story will be heat as high temperatures push into the mid- or upper 90s today. (For reference, highs in most locations on Sunday peaked at about 95 degrees). Winds will be out of the west at 5 to 10 mph, and lows tonight will provide little relief with temperatures falling only to around 80 degrees for most.

As of Monday morning, Houston lies on the far western end of Cristobal. (kktv.com)

Tuesday

This will be the warmest day of the week for Houston—and probably the warmest day so far of 2020. With mostly sunny skies and a light southerly wind, expect highs to reach the upper 90s, with some inland areas possibly pushing 100 degrees. Typically, Houston records its first 100-degree day in mid-July, so this would be quite early.

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With Cristobal likely headed east, Houston to feel the heat

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Good morning. We’re approaching the longest day of the year—June 20—but we’ve already reached the earliest sunrise of the calendar year for Houston. From June 3 to June 17, sunrise will occur at 6:20 am CT before it starts to get later. Our sunsets will continue to get later until July 2. (Why is this? Well, it’s a bit complicated). Weather-wise, we’re looking at a lot of sunshine in the week ahead as long as Tropical Storm Cristobal stays east of Houston, which is looking increasingly likely.

100-degree temperatures are coming to West Texas today. They may reach East Texas next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

We should see partly sunny skies today, which will allow high temperatures to nudge up to 90 degrees or slightly above. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, but they’re not going to be as organized as we saw on Wednesday. Some models are hinting at the best chance of rain between Houston and Beaumont, but even then it’s a really scattered shot at showers. Most of us will just be dry and hot, with light winds out of the southeast.

Friday

Expect a similar day to Thursday, although perhaps a touch warmer. We expect to see high pressure building in from the west—the same high pressure that will probably help steer Cristobal east of the region—and this will set the region on a warming trend into the weekend and likely beyond.

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