Eric Berger

After a stunning Sunday, the sunshine is mostly going to disappear for some time, and Houston faces a significantly wetter period in which we may have some flooding concerns. There is, frankly, not much confidence in any of the forecast models at this point, but all point to a period of on-and-off heavy rainfall due to a moist atmosphere and meandering fronts.

The bottom line is that the region could see from 4 to 10 inches of rain—roughly speaking—over the next seven days, but it’s hard to pin down the best days and locations for accumulations at this time. On a day-to-day basis we may have concerns about street flooding. We also have concerns about the Trinity (which already will near major flood stage Wednesday near Liberty) and Brazos (already forecast to reach a minor flood stage Friday morning at Richmond) rivers, as these rains could add multiple inches of rains to those basis. Then, as the week wears on, our grounds may become increasingly saturated and vulnerable to heavy rainfall events that move past street flooding and into yards. Overall, this will be a week to pay attention to forecasts, and we’ll do our best to stay on top of what appears to be a dynamic situation. Please clap—I resisted saying it was a fluid situation.

Monday

We can have the most confidence in our weather for Monday. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds today, and the additional sky cover should help to limit temperatures in the mid-80s. This is probably the last day, for a week or so, that we can definitively say it will not rain. Also, after drier air filtered into the region this weekend, an onshore flow today will begin to pump moisture back into Houston, setting the stage for wetter days ahead. Lows Monday night will fall into the lower 70s for most.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, a disturbance in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will bring a healthy chance of rainfall into the region, with most of the rains likely falling during the daytime hours. Rain accumulations across Houston will probably range from 0.25 to 2.0 inches, although some areas will undoubtedly see less, and some more. Our biggest concern is that some areas will see heavy rainfall during this time as the overall dynamics do not favor severe storms, for the most part.

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A major line of storms pulsed through the Houston area early Saturday—but well before sunrise they pushed to the east of the region. Some lingering showers are possible later this morning, but for the most part we should be dry from here on out. The overnight storms dropped 1-2 inches of rain, and may have spawned a tornado.

Now, however, we should see a nice May weekend. Clouds should eventually break apart this afternoon, leading to a pleasant evening, with inland parts of the region potentially seeing lows in the upper 60s. Sunday should see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

As Matt mentioned Friday, the coming week looks potentially quite wet, especially the period from Thursday through Saturday. It’s too early to have too much confidence in the timing and details, but a slow-moving front could make for very wet conditions, with multiple inches of rain and the potential for at least some street flooding. But we wouldn’t worry too much about that yet; for now enjoy the weekend and we’ll provide a full (and hopefully clearer) update of the situation on Monday morning.

Houston faces a couple of wetter, and potentially stormy days before our weather clears out sometime on Saturday, and brings us what looks like a fairly nice May weekend. But first we’ve got to get through a round of storms this morning, for the northern half of the region, and then a stormy period on Friday night. We’re not anticipating anything too severe, but we could see some at-times strong thunderstorms.

Thursday

As of 6:15am CT, the northern part of Houston is seeing the remnant line of showers and thunderstorms from a large storm system that moved through North Texas on Wednesday night. This line is slowly weakening as it moves to the south-southeast this morning, but some part of it will likely push through The Woodlands and down at least into central Houston. Closer to the coast, a capping inversion will likely prevent widespread showers and thunderstorms. After this system works through this morning, we can expect a partly sunny day with highs in the mid-to upper-80s.

Friday through Saturday morning

We’ll see another wetter period on Friday through Saturday morning for the region. Most of the action should remain to the west and north of the Houston metro area through the daytime hours on Friday, but sometime that evening we should see a mass of storms move through the area roughly from west to east. This system is part of a weak cold front and an upper level disturbance. Timing is still hazy, but generally we’d expect the worst weather overnight for most of Houston, and probably lingering into Saturday morning for the coast and eastern parts of the region. Most modeling shows the system clearing the area by or before noon on Saturday, but we’re offering no guarantees. Generally, the area will probably see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, but there may be higher localized totals, and we can’t rule out some hail and damaging winds.

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Good morning. Houston will remain in a muggy, partly cloudy, and somewhat rainy period through Saturday, but we have no major concerns. However, the same cannot be said today for northern Texas, particularly the I-20 corridor from Abilene through Dallas and Fort Worth. Severe storms could affect the Metroplex during the afternoon, and evening hours, with the distinct threat of large hail, heavy rainfall, and potentially tornadoes. Please take care if you’re traveling that way today or tonight.

Wednesday and Thursday

Back in Houston, conditions will be much more sedate. We’re going to continue under a pattern of a warmer southerly flow, with breezy winds from the Gulf bringing moisture into the area. Both Wednesday and Thursday should see some sunshine, which will allow highs to nudge up into the upper-80s for most areas, likely.

The bigger question is rainfall, and I think we’re going to see some light to moderate rain showers over the northern half of the area (think north of I-10), while southern areas remain pretty much dry. Overall inland parts of the region could see as much as one-half inch of rain through Thursday, but it should be nothing to write home about in terms of impacts. Nights will remain steamy, in the low 70s.

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