Eric Berger

Good morning! Our overall forecast remains on track, with mostly sunny, slowly warming weather conditions from now through most of the weekend. We’re also going to take a speculative look ahead at the weather for Christmas week.

Thursday

If you had clear skies this morning and were up early—as we usually are to research and write these forecasts—the setting full Moon was tremendous to behold. We’re seeing a few clouds higher in the atmosphere this morning, and that will lead to partly to mostly sunny skies today with highs in the low 60s. Thursday night will be moderately warmer, with lows down around 50 degrees in Houston, colder to the north, and warmer closer to the coast.

Friday

This should be a splendid day, with highs of around 70 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures Friday night will be similar to Thursday night, as a weak front arrives to forestall the onshore flow from kicking in for a day or so.

Saturday

With the weak front, Saturday is going to be amazing. Do you like sunshine? Dry air? Highs of around 70 degrees? You’re in luck. Lows Saturday night should be in the 50s.

We have been spoiled this fall!

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Tuesday’s front moved through as advertised, dropping between 0.25 and 0.5 inch of rain across the area and pushing our temperatures down dramatically. After a gray day yesterday, expect mostly clear skies well into the weekend. Yes, we’re going to have yet another amazing fall weekend in Houston.

Wednesday

Conditions are generally cold, cloudy, and gusty this morning with low temperatures in the 40s. That will change as the cloud deck follows the front offshore, leading to clearing skies later today for the region. Partial sunshine should allow highs to reach the mid- to upper-50s—so quite chilly for the daytime—before another cold tonight with low temperatures falling into the mid-40s. Winds will die down today, coming from the north at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday and Friday

These two smashing days will be partly to mostly sunny affairs, with highs in the mid-60s to 70 degrees and overnight lows around 50 degrees. The forecast models are somewhat split as to whether a modest cool front will push through on Friday to reinforce the cooler weather, but I think the biggest question is whether this drives low temperatures on Saturday morning down to the mid-40s, or lower 50s.

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Good morning. The basic forecast for this week calls for warm weather on Monday before a front sweeps through and keeps the region cool through Friday or Saturday. The notable thing about this front is that, tonight and Tuesday, it will bring our best chance of widespread rain in a month.

Monday

Temperatures on Monday will be quite warm, with highs near 80 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A southwesterly flow will really pump warmth and moisture into the region, and at the surface we should see winds gusting up to 25 mph. The atmosphere generally will not support rain during the day, but that should change later on Monday night. But before the front arrives, we can expect a warm and humid night, with lows perhaps only dropping into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

The cold front should reach far northwestern Harris County by or shortly after midnight, and reach the coast roughly around sunrise. The temperature should drop 10 to 15 degrees in the wake of the front, and highs on Tuesday are likely to fall through the 50s throughout the day. Winds will be quite gusty, out of the north at up to perhaps 30 mph. The front won’t immediately scour moisture from the atmosphere, so we should be left with a gray, wet day—with on-and-off, mostly light to moderate rainfall. Right now, we expect that most people will probably receieve 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall, with a few outliers either way. Rains should end by around sunset on Tuesday.

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Sorry, I know these headlines are getting a bit cheesy. But how many ways can you say the weather is going to be be great?

Several readers have noted the region’s dry weather of late, and it’s true that almost the entire area has seen less rainfall than normal since Tropical Storm Imelda in September. The last 30 days—the percent of normal rainfall for this period is shown below—have been particularly dry. There is a reasonable chance that next week will see the return of a decent amount of precipitation, as we’ll discuss below.

Thursday

Oh noes! For one day this week Houston may not see mostly sunny skies. That day is today. A southeasterly flow will push temperatures up into the 70s today, and bring enough moisture into the atmosphere such that we should see at least partly, if not mostly cloudy skies after this morning. Low temperatures tonight should get down into the low 60s for most.

Friday

After a warmish start during the early morning, a cold front should push into Houston between sunrise and noon. With only a modest amount of moisture return, I would expect most of us to see no rainfall at all, although we can’t entirely rule out a few spotty, very light showers. After the front, skies will clear, and we’ll see a beautiful day in the 70s.

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